Tag Archives: ISM Prices Paid

2009-03-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Jan)

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Personal Spending (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 33.8
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 33.5
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.3%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -2.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.1%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a


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2008-09-02 USER

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ISM Manufacturing (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 49.9
Prior 50.0
Revised n/a

Not bad; far from recession levels in a sector that will continue to decline as a percentage of GDP indefinately.

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ISM Prices Paid (Aug)

Survey 82.0
Actual 77.0
Prior 88.5
Revised n/a

Less than expected, but still very high. Indication that most companies still paying higher prices even as commodities declined.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

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Construction Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.4%
Revised 0.3%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still very weak, but smaller declines.

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Jul)

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 31)

Survey -49
Actual -47
Prior -50
Revised n/a


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2008-08-01 US Economic Releases

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls MoM (Jul)

Survey -75K
Actual -51K
Prior -2K
Revised -51K

The drops are leveling off, maybe declining.

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -67
Prior 41
Revised n/a

Now down year over year.

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Jul)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls MoM (Jul)

Survey -40K
Actual -35K
Prior -33K
Revised -35K

Falling at an historically steady rate with increases in productivity and outsourcing.

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.8%
Prior -2.6%
Revised n/a

Continuiously falling.

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Manufacturing Payrolls ALLX (Jul)

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Unemployment Rate (Jul)

Survey 5.6%
Actual 5.7%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

Not looking good. This represents lost real output.

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Bending some but not breaking.

Could spring higher with a meaningful recovery in GDP.

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jul)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Growth continues to moderate some.

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Average Weekly Hours (Jul)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.6
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Looking very weak

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Average Weekly Hours ALLX 2 (Jul)

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 233.37
Prior 234.41
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -15.60%
Prior -14.67%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.0
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a

Better than expected, far from recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jul)

Survey 88.0
Actual 88.5
Prior 91.5
Revised n/a

Staying far too high for far too long for the Fed’s liking.

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ISM ALLX 1 (Jul)

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ISM ALLX 2 (Jul)

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Construction Spending MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.4%
Revised 0.0%

Weak but not terrible given the general environment.

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Construction Spending YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

Down but not in collapse.

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Construction Spending ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Construction Spending ALLX 2 (Jun)

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Construction Spending ALLX 3 (Jun)


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2008-07-01 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1
Prior -0.6
Revised n/a

Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9
Prior 2.8
Revised n/a

A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual n/a
Prior n/a
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey 48.5
Actual 50.2
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jun)

Survey 87.0
Actual 91.5
Prior 87.0
Revised n/a

Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.

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ISM TABLE (Jun)

Karim writes:

  • Not much change in headline or production/new order components.
  • Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).

Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.

  • Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.

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Construction Spending MoM (May)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.1%

A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.

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Construction Spending YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)

Survey n/a
Actual -43
Prior -43
Revised n/a

Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.


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2008-06-02 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-02 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -13.97%
Prior -11.00%
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-02 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 235.40
Prior 239.31
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-02 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -0.6%

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2008-06-02 Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Also better than expected, and showing signs of life as the fiscal package kicks in.

All eyes are on residential which appears to be slowing its decline and should be doing less damage to GDP.

Just heard Lehman raised Q2 GDP estimate to up 1% from down 0.4%.

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2008-06-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

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2008-06-02 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (May)

Survey 85.0
Actual 87.0
Prior 84.5
Revised n/a

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2008-06-02 ISM Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Manufacturing TABLE

Better than expected and looking like a bottom to me, with the fiscal package just now kicking in.

Recession fears a fading memory?

Prices paid way and higher than expected as FOMC turns its attention towards inflation.


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2008-05-01 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 27.4%
Prior 9.4%
Revised n/a

Seem to be drifting higher.

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2008-05-01 Personal Income

Personal Income (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

Not the stuff of recessions.

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2008-05-01 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Mar)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Muddling through.

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2008-05-01 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Mar)

Survey 3.2%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still far too high for comfort for a mainstream economist.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

I’m anticipation more 0.3%s for the rest of this year.

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2008-05-01 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Mar)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Starting to move back up.

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2008-05-01 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 26)

Survey 365K
Actual 380K
Prior 342K
Revised 345K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 2950K
Actual 3019K
Prior 2934K
Revised 2945K

No recession yet.

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2008-05-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

Staying above recession levels.

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2008-05-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 83.5
Actual 84.5
Prior 83.5
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping!

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.4%

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2008-05-01 Construction Spending YoY

Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4%
Prior -2.2%
Revised n/a

Still weak.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 15.0M
Actual —
Prior 15.1M
Revised —

[comments]

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Apr)

Survey 11.4M
Actual –
Prior 11.1M
Revised –

[comments]


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2008-04-01 US Economic Releases

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2008-04-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 47.5
Actual 48.6
Prior 48.3
Revised n/a

Still soft, but better than expected and not at recession levels of 44 or less.

2008-04-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 75.0
Actual 83.5
Prior 75.5
Revised n/a

2008-04-01 ISM TABLE

2008-04-01 ISM TABLE

ISM TABLE

Prices paid up and employment up -inflation and a lower output gap- not the direction the Fed wants the economy to be going.

2008-04-01 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -1.0%

Better than expected, prior month revised up, and the chart still looks lower but not all that bad.

2008-04-01 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Mar 30)

Survey -n/a
Actual -33
Prior -31
Revised n/a

Seems to have bottomed, and today’s stock market action should give it a boost.

2008-04-01 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Mar)

Survey 15.2M
Actual 15.1M
Prior 15.3M
Revised n/a

2008-04-01 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales

Survey 11.6M
Actual 11.1M
Prior 11.7M
Revised n/a

Still working its way lower.

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2008-03-03 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-03 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.24%
Prior -4.17%
Revised n/a

2008-03-03 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 245.70
Prior 254.29
Revised n/a

Both were falling into year end.

2008-03-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 48.0
Actual 48.3
Prior 50.7
Revised n/a

Better than expected. Not yet to recession levels.

2008-03-03 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 73.5
Actual 75.5
Prior 76.0
Revised n/a

Price pressures persisting.

2008-03-03 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

Very weak.

2008-03-03 Total Vehicle Sales

Total Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey 15.5M
Actual 15.4M
Prior 15.2M
Revised n/a

As expected, but drifting to a lower range.

2008-03-03 Domestic Vehicle Sales

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Feb)

Survey 11.9M
Actual 11.7M
Prior 11.7M
Revised n/a

Drifting lower.

Same twin themes: weak demand and higher prices.Exports keeping GDP from recession levels, but taking demand from the rest of the world that is also softening.

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2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

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2007-02-01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey 70K
Actual -17K
Prior 18K
Revised 82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)

2008-02-01 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

Survey 5.0%
Actual 4.9%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.

2008-02-01 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey -20K
Actual -28K
Prior -31K
Revised -20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.

2008-02-01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-02-01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey 3.9%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.

2008-02-01 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours

Survey 33.8
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.

2008-02-01 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1681
Prior -3.4285
Revised n/a

small-2008-02-01-rpx-composite-28dy-index.gif

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 254.3
Prior 255.5
Revised 258.9

November housing was weak.

2008-02-01 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 79.0
Actual 78.4
Prior 80.5
Revised n/a

Not bad.

2008-02-01 U. of Michigan TABLE

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE

2008-02-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 47.3
Actual 50.7
Prior 47.7
Revised 48.4

Back to growth mode.

2008-02-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey 68.0
Actual 76.0
Prior 68.0
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping here.

2008-02-01 Construction Spending

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -1.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised -0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

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2008-01-02 US Economic Releases

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 258.86
Prior 259.22
Revised n/a

2008-01-02 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4295
Prior -2.4848
Revised n/a

Metropolitan housing prices remain very weak.

2008-01-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey 50.5
Actual 47.7
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

On the weak side – mainly new orders.

Employment ok.

2008-01-02 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey 65.0
Actual 68.0
Prior 67.5
Revised n/a

No weakness here!

2008-01-02 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.4%

Stronger than expected; may have bottomed.

2008-01-02 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -20
Prior -23
Revised n/a

Moderately less negative.

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