Tag Archives: Challenger Job Cuts

2009-05-06 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior -18.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 264.30
Prior 251.60
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 5169.30
Prior 5108.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 47.0%
Prior 180.7%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Apr)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Apr)

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ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey -645K
Actual -491K
Prior -742K
Revised -708K

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ADP ALLX (Apr)


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2009-04-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 32.2%
Revised n/a

 
More evidence of the rising deficit turning the economy sideways ahead of the fiscal package kicking in this month to increase the injection of net financial assets to the non government sectors:

US mortgage applications climb, rates at fresh low

by Lynn Adler

Apr 1 (Reuters) — The Mortgage Bankers Association’s applications index, which includes both refi and purchase requests, rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the week ending March 27 to 1,194.4.

The purchase applications index was little changed, rising 0.1 percent to 268.0, while the refinancing gauge gained 3.7 percent to 6,600.1.

This is up sharply from 2,722.7 as recently as early February.

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 268.00
Prior 267.80
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 6600.10
Prior 6363.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7%
Prior 158.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Mar)

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ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -663K
Actual -742K
Prior -697K
Revised -706K

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ADP ALLX (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 36.0
Actual 36.3
Prior 35.8
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 33.0
Actual 31.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -3.3%
Revised -3.5%

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Construction Spending YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.0%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-04 USER

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It all still looks very, very weak. But so low that even small improvements will show high % gains.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.6%
Prior -15.1%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 236.40
Prior 250.50
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3063.40
Prior 3618.00
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 158.49%
Prior 222.40%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Feb)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Feb)

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ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey -630K
Actual -697K
Prior -522K
Revised -614K

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ADP ALLX (Feb)

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 193.05
Prior 199.39
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.43%
Prior -21.59%
Revised n/a

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 41.0
Actual 41.6
Prior 42.9
Revised 42.9


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2009-02-04 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.6%
Prior -38.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.40
Prior 294.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 3906.30
Prior 3373.90
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 222.4%
Prior 274.5%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Jan)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Jan)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Jan)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Jan)

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ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey -535K
Actual -522K
Prior -693K
Revised -659K

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ADP ALLX (Jan)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Jan)

Survey 39.0
Actual 42.9
Prior 40.6
Revised 40.1


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2009-01-07 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.2%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 344.20
Prior 320.90
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 5904.50
Prior 6733.80
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 274.5%
Prior 148.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Dec)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Dec)

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ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey -495K
Actual -693K
Prior -250K
Revised -476K

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ADP ALLX (Dec)


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2008-11-05 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual -20.3%
Prior 16.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 260.90
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

 
Down through the lows- looking like housing is taking a second leg down.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Oct 31)

Survey n/a
Actual 1075.40
Prior 1489.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Oct 31)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Oct 31)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 78.9%
Prior 32.6%
Revised n/a

 
Trending higher along with other employment indicators.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Oct)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Oct)

Survey 47.0
Actual 44.4
Prior 50.2
Revised n/a


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2008-10-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

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ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

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ADP ALLX (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

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ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

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ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

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ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

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Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-03 USER

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US Economic Releases

MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 349.0
Prior 315.9
Revised n/a

Nice to see this picking up. With agencies sorted out and income holding up, it should continue to improve over time.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1059.7
Prior 1038.0
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 29)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.7%
Prior 140.8%
Revised n/a

This series hasn’t been all that useful one way or another.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts ALLX (Aug)

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Looks okay. No recession here.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Looks okay.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 2)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 2.1%

Better than expected and previous month revised up.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 7.5%
Revised n/a

Could be construed as being in an uptrend!

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jul)

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 9.4M
Actual 10.4M
Prior 9.1M
Revised n/a

Even this has turned up, though from very low levels.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 13.0M
Actual 13.7M
Prior 12.5M
Revised n/a

Better than expected and may have bottomed. As the mix of vehicles produces switches, expect sales to increase.

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Vehicle Sales ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-04 US Economic Releases

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 140.8%
Prior 46.7%
Revised n/a

Starting to reflect the labor market weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE (Jul)

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Personal Income MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected and looking ok.

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Personal Income YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.7%
Prior 6.0%
Revised n/a

Holding up with the fiscal package kicking in along with other government spending.

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Personal Income ALLX (Jun)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Also better than expected for same reasons.

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Personal Spending YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Looking pretty good here, too.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jun)

Survey 3.7%
Actual 4.1%
Prior 3.1%
Revised 3.5%

ugly number for the Fed tomorrow.

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PCE Core MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Fed wary of headline leaking into core. This is not encouraging.

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PCE Core YoY (Jun)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.2%

Also moving the wrong way for the Fed, and they know headline numbers leak into core with substantial lags.

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Personal Spending ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Personal Spending ALLX 2 (Jun)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.9%

Government and exports providing the support at the macro level.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.1%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

Looks to be moving up nicely.

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jun)


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2008-07-02 US Economic Releases

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Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

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ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

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Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

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Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


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