Tag Archives: ADP Employment Change

2009-04-01 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 32.2%
Revised n/a

 
More evidence of the rising deficit turning the economy sideways ahead of the fiscal package kicking in this month to increase the injection of net financial assets to the non government sectors:

US mortgage applications climb, rates at fresh low

by Lynn Adler

Apr 1 (Reuters) — The Mortgage Bankers Association’s applications index, which includes both refi and purchase requests, rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the week ending March 27 to 1,194.4.

The purchase applications index was little changed, rising 0.1 percent to 268.0, while the refinancing gauge gained 3.7 percent to 6,600.1.

This is up sharply from 2,722.7 as recently as early February.

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 268.00
Prior 267.80
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 6600.10
Prior 6363.20
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7%
Prior 158.4%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Mar)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Mar)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Mar)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Mar)

[top][end]

ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -663K
Actual -742K
Prior -697K
Revised -706K

[top][end]

ADP ALLX (Mar)

[top][end]

ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 36.0
Actual 36.3
Prior 35.8
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 33.0
Actual 31.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -3.3%
Revised -3.5%

[top][end]

Construction Spending YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.0%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a


[top]

Share

2009-02-04 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.6%
Prior -38.8%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.40
Prior 294.30
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 3906.30
Prior 3373.90
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 222.4%
Prior 274.5%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Jan)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Jan)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Jan)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Jan)

[top][end]

ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey -535K
Actual -522K
Prior -693K
Revised -659K

[top][end]

ADP ALLX (Jan)

[top][end]

ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Jan)

Survey 39.0
Actual 42.9
Prior 40.6
Revised 40.1


[top]

Share

2008-10-01 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

[top][end]

ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

[top][end]

ADP ALLX (Sep)

[top][end]

ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

[top][end]

ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

[top][end]

ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

[top][end]

ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

[top][end]

Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

[top][end]

Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

[top][end]

Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

[top][end]

Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


[top]

Share

2008-09-04 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims jump 16k to 445k (4wk avg 439k from 444k)
  • Continuing claims rise 15k to 3435k (4wk avg 3400k from 3367k)
  • A correction from the impact of the extended benefits program would have seen initial claims drop to the 400-425k range (as was expected)
  • This increase and a new cycle high in continuing claims suggests some renewed labor market weakness and adds to downside risks to upcoming NFP reports
  • Unit labor costs for Q2 revised from unch to -0.5% and productivity from 3.5% to 4.3%. These numbers are volatile, but at the margin, the Fed will welcome these revisions as they relate to its inflation outlook.

Yes, and they also show that a share of the job losses were attributable to ‘efficiency gains’ rather than macro weakness (though the two are related) meaning economic potential is firming. This is the ‘classic benefit’ of a slowdown.

  • ISM Non-Mfg headline continues to meander around 50 (rises from 49.5 to 50.6)
  • Prices paid drops from 80.8 to 72.9; employment weakens further, from 47.1 to 45.4
  • Orders up 2 points, export orders down 3pts
  • Labor department official states claims data this week were a ‘clean read’, but that next week’s number will be effected by the Gustav evacuation
  • Trichet says Euro economy in an ‘episode of weak activity’ and that M3 data is overstating monetary expansion as credit growth is moderating. States ECB especially focused on wage growth, but when asked if he agrees with Board member Stark on seeing ‘broad-based’ second round effects, says only seeing ‘some second round effects’. Seems like ECB wants to see weak growth become entrenched and wage demands to moderate before entertaining rate cuts-i.e., unemployment needs to rise further.

US Economic Releases

ADP Employment Change (Aug)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior 9K
Revised 1K

 
Continuing its long, lazy trend lower, but not recession levels yet.

[top][end]

ADP Employment Change MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ADP TABLE 1 (Aug)

[top][end]

ADP TABLE 2 (Aug)

[top][end]

ADP TABLE 3 (Aug)

[top][end]

ADP ALLX (Aug)

[top][end]

Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Very high number. Shows the higher GDP is being sustained by fewer workers.

[top][end]

Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Nice downtick. Domestic labor costs aren’t pushing up prices yet.

[top][end]

Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q F)

[top][end]

Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q F)

[top][end]

Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 30)

Survey 420K
Actual 444K
Prior 425K
Revised 429K

 
Keeps working its way higher after the extended benefit program was initiated, though the 4 week average is a touch lower.

[top][end]

Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 29)

Survey 3423K
Actual 3435K
Prior 3423K
Revised 3429K

 
Not looking good and also not sure how much this is influenced by the extended benefits program.

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 30)

[top][end]

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Aug)

Survey 49.5
Actual 50.6
Prior 49.5
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected.

[top][end]

ISM TABLE (Aug)

 
Employment and export orders down some, while prices paid still very high.

[top][end]

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Not great, but not falling apart.

[top][end]

ICSC TABLE (Aug)


[top]

Share

2008-07-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.1%
Prior -6.2%
Revised n/a

Softening.

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Index (Jul 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 309.5
Prior 335.6
Revised n/a

Now drifting lower,

Partially because banks are taking market share as mortgage bankers find it more difficult to sell in the secondary market.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Index (Jul 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 1074.4
Prior 1392.7
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA ALLX 1 (Jul 25)

[top][end]

MBA ALLX 2 (Jul 25)

[top][end]

ADP Employment Change (Jul)

Survey -60K
Actual 9K
Prior -79K
Revised -77K

Surprise to the upside.

If this happens with Friday’s payroll number markets will be even further confused.

[top][end]

ADP ALLX (Jul)


[top]

Share

2008-07-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

[top][end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

[top][end]

MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

[top][end]

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

[top][end]

ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

[top][end]

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

[top][end]

Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

[top][end]

Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


[top]

Share

2008-06-04 US Economic Release

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]


2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.6
Prior 352.7
Revised n/a

Not looking good, as the ‘old consumption economy’ – cars, houses, etc.- gives way to the new export economy with the allocations coming via ‘price’ as higher food/fuel prices take away domestic spending power and the foreign sector scrambles to spend it’s now unwanted multi $trillion hoard on US goods, services, and domestic assets, and keeps GDP muddling through.

First, probably fighting strong seasonals.

Second, purchase applications fall off doesn’t jibe with recent housing data and confidence numbers that have been rebounding.

Third, mortgage bankers could be continuing to lose market share to banks and other direct lenders as secondary markets remain problematic.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1496.1
Prior 2013.5
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.6%
Prior 27.4%
Revised n/a

Moving up. This hasn’t been much of an economic indicator, but employment is a lagging indicator and it makes sense for it to keep getting worse for a couple of quarters or so past the bottom of the cycle.

[top][end]

2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

[top][end]

2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

[top][end]


2008-06-04 US Hiring

Hiring

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (May)

Survey -30K
Actual 40K
Prior 10K
Revised 13K

This report is private sector only. Government employment may be ticking up as we approach the election, as spending delayed from 2007 kicks in.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ

Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity YoY

Nonfarm Productivity YoY (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs QoQ

Unit Labor Costs QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs per Unit

Unit Labor Cost per Unit (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 117.9
Prior 118.0
Revised n/a

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (May)

Survey 51.0
Actual 51.7
Prior 52.0
Revised n/a

Another better than expected report. Clearly above recession levels, and supporting forecasts for higher GDP this quarter.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Most categories noticeably stronger. Employment down some, but the average of the last few months is rising. New Exports Orders back up as well.

[top][end]


2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

Survey n/a
Actual 77.0
Prior 72.1
Revised n/a

This is getting ‘out of control’ from the FOMC’s point of view.


[top]

Share

2008-04-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

2008-04-02 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 356.0
Prior 403.7
Revised n/a

Down this week, maybe a holiday issue. Looks looks like Q1 was in a lower range than Q4, but not all that bad.

Also, mortgage bankers have less capacity than previously, and banks are said to be gaining market share.

2008-04-02 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 28)

Survey n/a
Actual 2636.0
Prior 4255.2
Revised n/a

Refi’s have been coming in spikes. Not sure why.

2008-04-02 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.4%
Prior -14.2%
Revised n/a

This hasn’t been a reliable indicator but nonetheless seems to indicate a recession isn’t in the cards.

2008-04-02 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -45K
Actual 8K
Prior -23K
Revised -18K

ADP flattish, and last month revised up a bit.

Friday’s payroll number could be much the same: last month revised up some, and current month a bit higher than expected.

The overall trend is to less job creation, but the labor force participation rate has also been falling and keeping reported unemployment in check.

But it doesn’t matter anymore.

Employment is now going to be treated as a ‘rear view mirror’ issue and not ‘forward looking’

Same with losses to be reported by the financial sector.

Economics risks are now to the upside.

If housing doesn’t fall by another large chunk and further subtract from GDP, the Fed is left with an output gap not nearly large enough to forecast inflation coming back to target levels, without also including rate hikes in its internal forecasts (rate forecasts are not released). (The Fed’s long term inflation forecasts are necessarily at their target levels, as those forecasts include ‘appropriate monetary policy’ to hit those targets.)

Without a lot more weakness than current conditions indicate, markets will anticipate the Fed is unlikely to keep rates at current levels.

Meanwhile, current levels of demand for crude are more than sufficient for the Saudis to continue as swing producer/price setter.

And the foreign sector is still in the process of reducing their rate of accumulation of USD financial assets as evidenced by the falling trade gap, falling USD, and rising US exports.

2008-04-02 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Feb)

Survey -0.8%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.5%
Revised -2.3%

2008-04-02 Factory Orders YoY

Factory Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

Pretty good up trend in progress here.

Share

2008-03-05 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

2008-03-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior -19.2%
Revised n/a

Refi’s bouncing back some.

2008-03-05 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 363.1
Prior 358.1
Revised n/a

This seems to be drifting lower with time.

Might be loss of market share to banks.

2008-03-05 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2569.0
Prior 2458.9
Revised n/a

As above.

2008-03-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.2%
Prior 19.1%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.

Doesn’t get much attention.

2008-03-05 APD Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey 18K
Actual -23K
Prior 130K
Revised 119K

Drifting lower over time.  May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range.  On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February.  This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.

2008-03-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Seems to go with GDP.

2008-03-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.

The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.

2008-03-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.0%

As expected,  seems to be in a range.

2008-03-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 47.3
Actual 49.3
Prior 44.6
Revised n/a

Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then.  Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.

Share

2008-01-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on by

2008-01-30 MBAVPRCH + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave

MBAVPRCH Index + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave

From Karim:
very volatile series-see chart-white line is purchase index-purple line is 4wk avg and green line is 12wk avg-latter is probably best indicator of trend and looks like still heading lower. Of course this series also reflects multiple applications for same home purchase, which is more likely over the past few months in light of tighter standards for many borrowers, so probably have to adjust for that compared to same series a year ago.

2008-01-30 MBAVREFI

MBA Refinancing Index (Jane 25)

Survey n/a
Actual 5103.6
Prior 4178.2
Revised n/a

Refi index positive for ‘market functioning’, but purchase index could be softening.

As before, winter housing numbers are volatile.

2008-01-30 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey 40K
Actual 130K
Prior 40K
Revised 37K

Not the stuff of recession. While not a reliable predictor of Friday’s payroll report, it is a ‘real’ number as it’s ADP’s report of 392,000 business it services.

2008-01-30 GDP Annualized

GDP Annualized (4Q A)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

Lower than expected but still positive, consumer up 2% which is far from recession, and final sales for domestic purchases were up 1.4%, and the Dec export number won’t be reported until Feb 14. The durable goods number yesterday may portend a higher than estimated export number for the next Q4 GDP revised report. Inventories were burned off by 1.25% of GDP, which is also generally not indicative of recession.

2008-01-30 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (4Q A)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

Down but not terrible, and not the stuff of recession

2008-01-30 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (4Q A)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

Not good.

2008-01-30 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (4Q A)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Very troubling to the Fed. Mainstream theory says you can’t let core elevate. The cost to bring it down is much higher than any possible losses due to near term weakness caused by keeping rates high.

2008-01-30 FOMC Rate Decision

FOMC Rate Decision (Jan 30)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

♥

Share