2008-11-18 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 18)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.10%
Prior 0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Bending but not breaking, yet. Gasoline prices probably helping.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.30%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 18)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior -1.00%
Revised n/a

 
Looking weak as well.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 18)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.10%
Prior -1.20%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 18)

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Producer Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -2.8%
Prior -0.4%
Revised n/a

 
Way lower than expected.

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PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

 
Way higher than expected.

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Producer Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey 6.2%
Actual 5.2%
Prior 8.7%
Revised n/a

 
Still high but falling rapidly.

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PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Oct)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.4%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

 
Still moving higher.


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Obama plans will revive the economy

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Obama Says He Will Do `Whatever It Takes’ on Economy

By Edwin Chen

Nov. 17 (Bloomberg) President-elect Barack Obama said the U.S. government will do “whatever it takes” to revive the economy, and that means “we shouldn’t worry about the deficit next year or even the year after.”

In the short term, “the most important thing is that we avoid a deepening recession,” Obama said in an interview broadcast last evening on CBS News’s “60 Minutes.”


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Brown says fiscal stimulus in UK will be temporary

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Highlights

Brown Says Fiscal Stimulus in U.K. Will Be Temporary

Confirms a lack of understanding of fiscal policy.

Brown sets out anti-recession plan

Gordon Brown on Friday heralded an anti-recession strategy founded on tax cuts for low earners and further cuts in interest rates. People on low incomes had “a higher propensity to spend if their credits are higher”, Mr Brown said, noting that recipients of a wider US fiscal stimulus of $170bn (£113.7bn) approved last February had saved half the money. “In the US, rates have been cut to 1 per cent but the European area has been slower with 3.25 per cent in the euro area and 3 per cent in the UK,” he said in a speech. Mr Brown said he endorsed the views of Mervyn King, BoE governor, that there was scope for further cuts. Mr Brown invoked the memory of John Maynard Keynes, whose plans to reflate the economy in the late 1920s were dismissed by the Treasury chief secretary of the time with three words: “Inflation, extravagance, bankruptcy.”

Brown says fiscal stimulus in UK will be temporary

Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain’s financial stimulus package will be “temporary.” Brown’s remark mirrors BOE Governor Mervyn King’s warning that the government must put forward a credible plan to reduce the deficit over time. “In these extraordinary circumstances, it would be perfectly reasonable to see some use of fiscal stimulus, provided two conditions are met,” King said on Nov. 12. “One, that it’s temporary. Secondly, that it would be clear there was a medium-term plan to bring tax and spending into balance.” The U.K. Treasury had a budget gap of 37.6 billion pounds ($57 billion) in the first half of its fiscal year. Since March, Brown’s government delivered tax cuts and spending increases worth 4.8 billion pounds to give relief to low-income earners, delay an increase in fuel duties and to help homeowners with mortgages and stamp-duty taxes.


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2008-11-17 USER

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Nov)

Survey -26.00
Actual -25.43
Prior -24.62
Revised n/a

 
Remains depressed.

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Nov)

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Industrial Production MoM (Oct)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 1.3%
Prior -2.8%
Revised -3.7%

 
Routine bounce back of a volatile series.

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Industrial Production YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1%
Prior -5.7%
Revised n/a

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Capacity Utilization (Oct)

Survey 76.5%
Actual 76.4%
Prior 76.4%
Revised 75.5%

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Capacity Utilization TABLE 3 (Oct)


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Japan Daily: Machine Tool Orders Fall to Lowest in 4.5 Years

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Nothing an appropriate fiscal package couldn’t immediately turn around.

Fortunately for us, they never have been big on supporting domestic demand.

>   
>   On Fri, Nov 14, 2008 at 6:40 AM, Davin wrote:
>   

  • Machine Tool Orders Down 40% In Oct, Falling Under Y100bn

  • 5 of 8 Homebuilders Cut FY08 Sales Projections

  • Steel Customers Unlikely To Accept Price Hikes

  • Used-Car Registrations Down 5.3% In Oct, 20-Year Low For Month

  • Govt To Keep Civil Servant Salaries, Bonuses Unchanged For FY08

  • New Power Station Puts Damper On Wholesale Electricity Market

  • OECD: Japan Will Enter A Period Of Deflation

  • Nissan To Cut Japan Output By 72,000 Vehicles From Dec

  • Forex: Dollar Sinks To Upper Y96 Range Ahead Of Financial Summit

  • Stocks: Snap 3-Day Losing Streak On Wall St Rise, But Upside Capped


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Plosser and interest rates

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“There are all sorts of technical ramifications when the fed funds rate goes towards zero. There are a lot of questions we’re going to have to grapple with going forward,” Plosser told reporters after a speech at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh. “You have to think about what this means for policy, market functioning, how we manage reserves.”

Yes, about time they thought about how reserve accounting works. They don’t have a clue. There are no operational issues.

But this does mean they may be reluctant to cut to zero.


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Re: Sarkozy Pushes for Abandonment of Dollar as World Reserve Currency

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(email exchange)

The dollar is a world reserve currency only because we are the only ones who ‘allow’ a trade deficit.

With a trade deficit, the rest of world is long your currency.

With a trade surplus, like japan, the world is short your currency.

The eurozone wants a trade surplus and to be a reserve currency.

They are either ignorant of how a monetary system works or have the arrogance of demanding the violation of an accounting identity by decree???

>   
>   On Fri, Nov 14, 2008 at 12:15 AM, Russell wrote:
>   
>   If True … hyper inflation in the pipe.
>   

Sarkozy Pushes for Abandonment of Dollar as World Reserve Currency

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday ahead of the G20 meeting of world leaders:

“I am leaving tomorrow for Washington to explain that the dollar cannot claim to be the only currency in the world…, that what was true in 1945 can no longer be true today”.

There have been many previous indications that the dollar would not remain the world’s reserve currency for long. But this is a dramatic statement by a close American ally.

Reading between the lines, I am guessing that Sarkozy is pushing for a shift from the dollar to a basket of currencies as a world reserve standard, instead of a change to a single currency such as the Euro or the Yuan.

But we’ll have to wait and see what Sarkozy is really advocating.


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2008-11-14 USER

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Import Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -4.4%
Actual -4.7%
Prior -3.0%
Revised -3.3%

 
Decelerating rapidly!

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Import Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey 8.2%
Actual 6.7%
Prior 14.5%
Revised 13.6%

 
Decelerating rapidly!

Karim writes:

Price pressures continue to fall sharply:

  • Import prices -4.7% m/m; -0.9% m/m ex-petroleum; yr/yr slows from 13.6% to 6.7%
  • Prices of industrial supplies -25.1% over past 3mths
  • Import prices from China -0.3% over past 2mths

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales (Oct)

Survey -2.1%
Actual -2.8%
Prior -1.2%
Revised -1.3%

 
This is a severe dropoff!

Karim writes:

Largest ever monthly drop in U.S. retail sales:

  • -2.8% m/m headline, -2.2% ex-autos, -1.5% ex-gas (prior mth headline revised from -1.2% to -1.3%)
  • 3mth annualized rate of change in headline now at -10.9%; yr/yr change -3.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1%
Prior -1.1%
Revised n/a

 
Looks very bad!

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Oct)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.2%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.5%

 
Same!

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Business Inventories MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.2%

 
Interesting drop- not recession like at all.

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Business Inventories YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.5%
Prior 6.3%
Revised n/a


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