Strong number, bouncing from winter slowdown. Looking at the chart seems spikes are followed by dips, and imports are a large factor as well. Hopefully it continues:

United States : Motor Vehicle Sales

Highlights
Consumers weren’t holding back in May when it came to buying cars and trucks which sold at a 17.8 million annual rate for a whopping 7.9 percent gain from April. The rate is above the top-end of the Econoday forecast and the strongest since July 2005. The monthly percentage change is the strongest since March 2010. Incentives and low rates no doubt boosted sales but May’s surge hints at pent-up demand, demand that has built up over the last six months when sales declined four times.

Among details, sales of North American-made vehicles rose 7.6 percent to a 14.2 million rate in a jump that points to a rise in future auto production and a rising auto contribution in the factory sector. Foreign-made vehicles sold at a 3.6 million rate for 9.1 percent gain which is among the largest monthly gains on record for this reading.

The April retail sales report proved to be a flop, but May’s vehicle sales data point to a big surge for the motor vehicle component which makes up nearly 1/4 of total retail sales.

This retail sales measure should have picked up by now:

Nor is this any good:

Factory Orders

Highlights
Factory orders fell 0.4 percent in April for the 8th decline in 9 months, a depressing streak interrupted only by March’s revised gain of 2.2 percent, a gain inflated by a monthly swing higher for civilian aircraft. There are significant downward revisions to the durable goods side of the report that was first published last week, with durables orders now down 1.0 percent vs an initial decline of 0.5 percent. Capital goods in that report looked strong, but not with today’s revision with orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft sinking 0.3 percent vs an initial and very strong gain of 1.0 percent.

Ex-transportation, orders are unchanged, well down from the 0.5 percent gain in the durable goods report. Nondurable goods are a positive offset in today’s report, up 0.2 percent and reflecting strength for chemical products.

Outside of new orders, data show no change for shipments and a 0.1 percent dip for unfilled orders, both very weak. The lack of punch is putting pressure on inventory levels where the inventory-to-shipments ratio rose to 1.35 from 1.34 in March.

The downward revision to core capital goods orders is a setback, pointing to much less business optimism than first reported. The factory sector did not get any lift at all coming out of the first quarter, reflecting weak exports and trouble in the energy sector. Manufacturing employment has understandably been very soft with the next update part of Friday’s employment report.

Still not showing much of a rebound from Q1, with their Q2 GDP forecast now at only .8% annualized:

Continues to disappoint and still looking worse than it was in Q1:

Redbook Retail Sales

Up 1% after being down 4% last week:

United States : MBA Mortgage Applications

Highlights
Mortgage rates are moving higher and squeezing out what had been gains in purchase applications. Purchase applications did rise in the May 22 week but only 1.0 percent. Year-on-year, applications are still up a healthy 14.0 percent. Demand for refinancing continues to shrink, down 4.0 percent in the latest week. The average 30-year fixed mortgage for conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) rose 3 basis points to 4.07 percent.

Purchase Mortgage level:

Still way high, especially with today’s retail sales growth at 0

United States : Business Inventories

Highlights
Business inventories don’t look quite as bloated after a small 0.1 percent gain in March that is under the 0.4 percent gain in business sales, taking the stock-to-sales ratio down to 1.36 from February’s recovery high of 1.37.

The improvement in March is centered, however, in the retail sector where, thanks to that month’s surge in sales, the stock-to-sales ratio slipped to 1.46 from 1.47. Whether further improvement can be expected in April is uncertain given this morning’s disappointing retail sales report.

The stock-to-sales ratios for the report’s two other components were unchanged, at 1.35 for manufacturers and at 1.30 for wholesalers.

Inventory overhang, built up during the slow first quarter, is widely seen as a risk for second-quarter growth, though this report suggests that the inventory headwind may not be that severe. Today’s data follow yesterday’s small business optimism report where inventory readings were surprisingly low.

Q2 forecast down to .7% as nothing yet stepping up to replace the lost oil and gas capex spending:

Share

Not good again.
Looks like more than a ‘soft spot’ as so far no improvement for Q2:

Redbook

Highlights
It’s hard to make heads or tails of weekly retail sales data surrounding Easter and its shifting comparisons. Redbook’s same-store year-on-year sales tally came in at a very weak plus 1.4 percent in the April 25 week which however is up from plus 0.8 percent in the prior week but well down from the plus 3.0 to 3.5 percent underlying trend. This trend, or somewhere close to it, is likely to re-emerge in next week’s report when Easter calendar distortions are no longer in play. Behind the distortions, however, Redbook does note that the overall performance is below plan though warmer weather did help seasonal sales in the latest week.


United States : Consumer Confidence

Highlights
Consumer confidence has fallen back noticeably this month, down more than 6 points to a much lower-than-expected 95.2. This compares very poorly with the Econoday consensus for 103.0 and is even far below the Econoday low estimate of 100.5. The weakness, ominously, is the result of falling assessments of the jobs market, both the current jobs market and expectations for the future jobs market. The second quarter, which is expected to be much stronger than the weather-depressed first quarter, isn’t likely to get off to a fast start, at least as far as this report goes.


Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Recent History Of This Indicator
The Richmond Fed manufacturing index in March fell into contraction, to minus 8 vs zero in February. Order readings, both for new orders and backlogs, were down substantially as were shipments and the workweek. Hiring, however, remained respectable, at least for now. Price readings showed only the most marginal pressure.