Euro zone economy

After weak April and May numbers, I’ve been on the lookout for possible hints that euro zone economies may now be flattening.

Austerity tends to drive down demand which also causes deficits to increase to the point where they stabilize GDP.

Therefore, if the euro zone just leaves their fiscal policies alone at some point those automatic fiscal stabilizers work to prevent further declines.

Meanwhile, no euro zone banks have had liquidity cut off by the ECB, and it doesn’t look like any euro zone govt will be missing any payments any time soon, so govt deficit spending will continue to add income and ‘savings’ to their real economies.

French Consumer Confidence Stalls as Hollande Readies Budget

June 26 (Bloomberg) — French consumer confidence stalled as President Francois Hollande prepared tax increases and spending cuts to help reduce the nation’s budget deficit.

Household sentiment was unchanged at 90 in June, national statistics Insee said today in a release from Paris. Economists expected a reading of 89, according to the median of 14 estimates gathered by Bloomberg News.

Broadbent Says Indicators Suggest U.K. GDP Growth May Be Flat

June 26 (Bloomberg) — Bank of England policy maker Ben Broadbent said that indicators suggest the U.K. economy may be broadly flat in the next quarter or two.

“The near-term indicators suggest that, abstracting from the various short-term distortions (the effect of the Golden Jubilee holiday, for example), output is broadly flat in the next quarter or two, as it has been for the past 18 months,” he said in answers to a questionnaire from the U.K. Treasury Committee published today in London.

Demand leakages- the 800lb economist in the room

I can’t say I’ve seen anyone in the deficit debates talking about the demand leakages? Not a mention in the mainstream press, financial news media, or any of the thousands of economic reports?

That’s like discussing the right horsepower for a truck or an airplane without any consideration of the weight of the vehicle.

Demand leakages are unspent income. And if any agent doesn’t spend his income, some other agent has to spend more than his income or that much output doesn’t get sold.

And if the non govt sectors collectively don’t spend all of their income, it’s up to the govt to make sure its income is less than its spending, or that much output does’t get sold, which translates into what’s commonly called the ‘output gap’. Which is largely a sanitized way of saying unemployment.

And with the private sector necessarily pro cyclical, the (whopping) private sector spending gap in this economy can only be filled with by govt via either a (whopping) tax cut and/or spending increase, depending on your politics.

So why the ‘demand leakages’? The lion’s share is due to tax advantages for not spending your income, including pension contributions, IRA’s, and all kinds of corporate reserves. Then there’s foreign hoards accumulated to support foreign exporters. And it all should be a very good thing- net unspent income like that means that for a given size govt our taxes can be that much lower. Personally, I’d rather have a tax cut than a policy to get other people to spend their unspent income. But that’s just me…

And then there’s the fear mongering about the likes of the $200 trillion present value of US govt unfunded liabilities. But 0 mention of the present value of all demand leakages- that future income that will be unspent as it’s squirreled away in the likes of retirement plans, corporate reserves, and foreign central banks.

If history is any guide, the demand leakages will probably continue to outstrip even the so called ‘runaway spending of our irresponsible government,’ like they’ve always done in the past, as evidenced by nearly continuous output gaps/excess unemployment.

Worse, every mainstream economist learned that it’s the demand leakages that create the ‘need’ for govt deficits. But somehow fail to even mention it, even casually.

If anything, they voice no objections to the popular misconception that we need more savings to have funds for investment, thereby tacitly supporting the call for higher levels of demand leaks and the need for even higher levels of govt deficit spending.

And all you hear are calls for deficit reduction, both public and private, all in the face of geometrically expanding demand leakages.

Am I missing something?

N.Y. Times letter

Letters: How to Mend Trust in the U.S. Economy

June 23 (NYT)

To the Editor:

Re “Broken Trust Takes Time to Mend” (Economic View, June 17):

Tyler Cowen argues that the “slow cure” for our economic malaise is to allow asset prices, wealth, trust, etc. to slowly rise. He states that the textbook cure of significant “Keynesian” government stimulus spending will not quickly restore prosperity because fiscal stimulus does not “rebuild confidence.”

Unfortunately, Professor Cowen seems not to understand that if the government were to let contracts for, say, $1 trillion to private enterprise to rebuild our failing highways, bridges, and municipal water and sewage systems, and provide resources for our shrinking public and higher education systems, this would quickly restore companies’ confidence in the profit opportunities that are available if they hire workers and buy materials from other United States companies. When these newly hired workers go out and spend their wages, the confidence of United States retailers would immediately surge as these additional customers break down the doors to get at the merchandise on the shelves.

Nothing will build the confidence and trust of business and workers quicker than the continuous ringing of cash registers. Paul Davidson

Morton Grove, Ill., June 17

The writer is editor of the Journal of Post Keynesian Economics and author of “The Keynes Solution: The Path to Global Economic Prosperity” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009).

Early Thought follow up… A conversation with Warren Mosler– great investor, thinker, sports car manufacturer, author, blogger….

Please click on the link below to listen to a conversation with Warren Mosler. Topics include: Demand leakage (how to fix end-demand), Fed Policy (QE is counterproductive) and overall market/econ outlook for US, Europe and China.

Please click here for the audio

UK Daily | U.K. Manufacturing Demand Strengthened in June, CBI Report Shows

As suspected, signs that UK deficit spending is looking large enough to support a bit of growth. Now watch for the proclamations about how austerity works…

UK Headlines:
U.K. Manufacturing Demand Strengthened in June, CBI Report Shows

CML Says U.K. Gross Mortgage Lending Rose 24% in May From April

U.K. Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast After April Slump

German, French private sector output data

With exports sagging it’s looking to me like:
Germany is going to need more public or private sector deficit spending to support sales and employment, while the French deficit may be large enough to stabilize their economy, albeit at far too low levels of output and employment.

Steepest drop in German private sector output for three years

June 21 (Markit) — Flash Composite Output Index at 48.5 in June from 49.3 in May, Flash Services Activity Index at 50.3 from 51.8, Flash Manufacturing PMI at 44.7 from 45.2, and Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 44.9 from 44.6. Reduced business activity reflected a marked fall in manufacturing production in June. Meanwhile, service sector activity was close to stagnation during the latest survey period. The latest drop in incoming new work reflected reductions in both the manufacturing and service sectors. Manufacturers indicated a steep and accelerated downturn in new export business during June, with the pace of reduction the fastest since April 2009.

Rate of decline in French private sector output eases in June

June 21 (Markit) — Flash Composite Output Index rises to 46.7 in June from 44.6 in May, Flash Services Activity Index climbs to 47.3 from 45.1, Flash Manufacturing PMI rises to 45.3 from 44.7, and Flash Manufacturing Output Index increases to 45.2 from 43.6. Slower falls in activity were recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors during June. This mirrored similar moderations in the respective rates of decline in new business. Panellists indicated that clients remained hesitant in committing to new contracts amid an uncertain economic climate, although some respondents noted greater numbers of client enquiries and sales of new products.

Romney’s fiscal message

And all evidence shows President Obama agrees.

FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY

The mission to restore America begins with getting our fiscal house in order. President Obama has put our nation on an unsustainable course. Spending is out of control. Yearly deficits are massive. And unless we curb Washington’s appetite for spending, the national debt will grow to the size of our entire economy this year.

As President, Mitt Romney will cut federal spending and bring much-needed reforms to entitlement programs. Mitt will work toward balancing the budget, reducing the size and reach of the federal government, and returning power to states and the people.


Policy

Exercise fiscal responsibility to restore economic opportunity.
Washington is addicted to deficit spending. As President, Mitt Romney will cut spending to finally move our nation toward a balanced budget.

During the Bush years, the nation’s deficit—the gap between what Washington collects and spends each year—hovered between 2 percent and 4 percent of GDP. These levels were already problematic and a cause for concern. During the Obama administration, however, the deficit exploded to 10 percent of GDP.

One major problem with sky-high deficit spending is that it necessarily leads to another practice that undermines the nation’s fiscal foundation: borrowing unhealthy sums to pay for what we already cannot afford. America is on an unsustainable path that, within just a few short years, will cripple the economy and foreclose any opportunity for recovery.

Mitt Romney will bring fiscal restraint to Washington by placing a hard cap on federal spending to force our government to live within its means and put an end to deficit spending.

Mitt will also curb federal spending by repealing Obamacare, the federal takeover of health care that is scheduled to cost taxpayers one trillion dollars over the next ten years. He will also focus on eliminating wasteful government spending and right-sizing the federal government to save taxpayer dollars.

Mitt Romney’s goal is to put the federal government on a course toward a balanced budget and true fiscal responsibility.

Reform entitlement programs to keep them solvent and put America on a path to prosperity.
Federal spending on entitlement programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security has not only spiraled out of control, but has placed their very solvency in danger. Unfortunately, President Obama has failed in his fundamental responsibility to articulate a serious vision and plan for the future of these programs. At present, the total cost of U.S. entitlement programs accounts for more than half of all federal spending. Combined with interest payments on the national debt, so-called “mandatory” spending is over 60 percent of all federal spending.

Many of our fellow citizens have no idea that our growing entitlement spending has created a looming crisis. This is because politicians have a habit of hiding our country’s long-term liabilities. Mitt Romney believes that the federal government should publish a balance sheet each year—just as it requires public companies to do—so that Americans can understand the burden that future entitlement spending will place on our budget and economy. Over the course of his campaign, Mitt will propose the specific steps he will take as President to ensure the long-term solvency of Medicare and Social Security. While reforms are needed, Mitt also believes that these changes should not reduce benefits for current seniors or break the promises they have relied upon for their economic security in retirement.

Mitt knows that our economic future—along with the future of entitlement programs—depends on fundamental reform. If we wisely begin to reform entitlements and commit to live within our means, we can bestow on the next generation an America that is stronger and even more prosperous than the one we know today.

HOLLANDE SAYS BANKING LICENSE WOULD GIVE ESM `GREATER POWER’

Yes, a banking license means unlimited ECB support.
The ‘talk’ continues to move in the right direction.

*HOLLANDE SAYS BANKING LICENSE WOULD GIVE ESM `GREATER POWER’
*HOLLANDE SAYS MANY IDEAS ON TABLE TO COMBAT CRISIS
*HOLLANDE SAYS EUROPE CAN IMPROVE ITS CRISIS RESPONSE
*HOLLANDE SAYS EUROPE HAS THE MEANS TO CONTROL ITS FUTURE
*HOLLANDE SAYS EUROPE MUST SO ITS DUTY ON GROWTH FOR GREECE
*HOLLANDE SAYS GREECE HAS MADE ENORMOUS EFFORTS
*HOLLANDE SAYS ITALY UNJUSTLY ATTACKED BY FINANCIAL MARKETS
*HOLLANDE SAYS HE’S IN AGREEMENT WITH MONTI ON GROWTH MEASURES
*HOLLANDE SAYS EUROPE NEEDS MECHANISMS AGAINST SPECULATION
*HOLLANDE SAYS GROWTH IS NECESSARY FOR DEBT REDUCTION
*HOLLANDE SAYS HAS `GREAT CONSIDERATION’ FOR MONTI’S LEADERSHIP

Hollande Says Europe Needs Mechanisms Against Speculation

By Gregory Viscusi

June 14 (Bloomberg) — French President Francois Hollande said that Italy has been unjustly attacked by financial markets and that Europe needs mechanisms to counter speculation.

Speaking in Rome today at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, Hollande said that both leadders agreed on measures to spur economic growth. Growth is necessary for debt reduction, he said.

Europe must do its duty in helping to deliver growth for Greece, which has made enormous efforts during its bailout program, Hollande said.

Europe can improve its crisis response, and has the means to control its fuuture, he said. Many ideas are on the table to combat the crisis, he said, citing a banking license for the permanent rescue fund, which would give it “greater power.”

U.K. Economy Barely Grew In Quarter Through May, Niesr Estimates

Another hint the austerity induced deficit may have gotten large enough to stabilize things and promote a bit of growth.

U.K. Economy Barely Grew In Quarter Through May, Niesr Estimates

By Svenja O’Donnell

June 12 (Bloomberg) — The U.K. economy barely grew in the quarter through May after contracting in the previous three months, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

Gross domestic product grew 0.1 percent in the period, after declining at the same rate in the three months through April, Niesr, whose clients include the Bank of England and the U.K. Treasury, said in an e-mailed statement in London today.

Data today showed U.K. manufacturing fell more than economists forecast in April, while industrial production was unchanged, pointing to continued weakness in the economy at the start of the second quarter. Britain has slipped back into recession and Bank of England policy makers have warned of threats to the economy from the euro-area crisis.

“Economic activity remains very weak,” the institute said. “We expect the U.K. economy to remain broadly ‘flat’ over the next six months.”

The U.K. economy is forecast to recover in 2013, Niesr said, though “significant downside risks persist.”