From SCE

Taken from ‘Soft Currency Economics’, 1993

That was 20 years ago and the same error persists!!!

:(

How the Government Spends and Borrows as Much as it Does Without Causing Hyperinflation

Most people are accustomed to viewing savings from their own individual point of view. It can be difficult to think of savings on the national level. Putting
part of one’s salary into a savings account means only that an individual has not spent all of his income. The effect of not spending as such is to reduce the demand for consumption below what would have been if the income which is saved had been spent. The act of saving will reduce effective demand for current production without necessarily bringing about any compensating increase in the demand for investment. In fact, a decrease in effective demand most likely reduces employment and income. Attempts to increase individual savings may actually cause a decrease in national income, a reduction in investment, and a decrease in total national savings. One person’s savings can become another’s pay cut. Savings equals investment. If investment doesn’t change, one person’s savings will necessarily be matched by another’s’ dissaving’s. Every credit has an offsetting debit.

As one firm’s expenses are another person’s income, spending equal to a firm’s expenses is necessary to purchase its output. A shortfall of consumption results in an increase of unsold inventories. When business inventories accumulate because of poor sales: 1) businesses may lower their production and employment and 2) business may invest in less new capital. Businesses often invest in order to increase their productive capacity and meet greater demand for their goods. Chronically low demand for consumer goods and services may depress investment and leaves businesses with over capacity and reduce investment expenditures. Low spending can put the economy in the doldrums: low sales, low income, low investment, and low savings. When demand is strong and sales are high businesses normally respond by increasing output. They may also invest in additional capital equipment. Investment in new capacity is automatically an increase in savings. Savings rises because workers are paid to produce capital goods they cannot buy and consume. The only other choice left is for individuals to “invest” in capital goods, either directly or through an intermediary. An increase in investment for whatever reason is an increase in savings; a decrease in individual spending, however, does not cause an increase in overall investment. Savings equals investment, but the act of investment must occur to have real savings.

The structural situation in the U. S. is one in which individuals are given powerful incentives not to spend. This has allowed the government, in a sense, to spend people’s money for them. The reason that government deficit spending has not resulted in more inflation is that it has offset a structurally reduced rate of private spending. A large portion of personal income consists of IRA contributions, Keoghs, life insurance reserves, pension fund income, and other money that compounds continuously and is not spent. Similarly, a significant portion of business income is also low velocity; it accumulates in corporate savings accounts of various types. Dollars earned by foreign central banks are also not likely to be spent.

The root of this paradox is the mistaken notion that savings is needed to provide money for investment. This is not true. In the banking system, loans, including those for business investments, create equal deposits, obviating the need for savings as a source of money. Investment creates its own money. Once we recognize that savings does not cause investment it follows that the solution to high unemployment and low capacity utilization is not necessarily to encourage more savings. In fact, taxed advantaged savings has probably caused the private sector to desire to be a NET saver. This condition requires the public sector to run a deficit, or face deflation.

U.S. durable goods have sent a shudder through the market- CNBC

Stocks up a tad on the news. So apparently improved odds of not tapering continues to outweigh a weaker economic outlook. Just as what seemed to be an improving economic outlook was out weighed by consequently higher odds of tapering.

Ironically, of course, QE is largely a placebo, merely shifting indifference levels to where the economy holds more $ in reserve accounts at the Fed and fewer $ in securities accounts at the Fed, a pretty much meaningless distinction, apart from the maybe $100 billion per year of interest income the Fed turns over treasury that would have been earned by the economy, etc.

But markets apparently remain in a now inapplicable ‘gold standard paradigm’ where $ in reserve accounts were convertible into gold, rising gold outflows, devaluation/default, etc. and thus fear some sort of undefinable imagined ‘negative consequences’ of QE. And this includes at least substantial segments of the Fed’s open market committee, not to mention pretty much everyone at Jackson Hole, which is pretty much everyone.

And in a ‘good is bad and bad is good’ out of paradigm world, the awakening can be most rude.

If growth is decelerating as I fear because deficits are too small, and stocks rally because they believe that’s all trumped by more QE, the analogy that comes to mind is a giant central Florida sink hole.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is double vulnerable. It’s also sitting on a growing, giant sink hole, where a softening in net exports to a softening US could be the catalyst for implosion.


US we have a problem, and its name is durable goods

By Bob Pisani

Aug 26 (CNBC) — U.S. durable goods have sent a shudder through the market, after July’s headline number checked in much weaker than expected, down a whopping 7.3 percent versus expectations of a 4 percent decline.

Even the much-parsed ex-transportation figure came in far below expectations with a 6.7 percent plunge. Excluding defense and air, the core number was down 3.3 percent, after four consecutive up months.

You can’t even blame it on seasonality or some statistical fluke. This was the most high profile data point this week, and the result greatly complicates the taper talk.

The pressure is really on the nonfarm payroll report for August, due next week. You really need a strong number for the Fed to even flirt with scaling back its bond purchases in September. Consensus for nonfarm payrolls is around 166,000, but that number needs to be really strong —arguably over 200,000.

taper tantrum!

The low jobless claims number seem to have sent markets into full taper mode. Stocks down due to fears of what happens without the presumed Fed support, and bonds higher in yield due to fears of what happens when the Fed slows down purchases.

And so while the ‘better jobs’ outlook that’s driving tapering is arguably good for stocks, markets are saying it’s not good enough to outweigh the higher bond yields and therefore the higher ‘discount rate’ for asset valuations.

Point here is, as previously discussed, the Fed will be cutting back it’s QE unless stocks fall hard enough to change their minds.

Which could very well happen.

While desperate circumstances that drive a large number of people to take on extra jobs at any pay to survive show ‘improvement’ in claims and payrolls, that’s not necessarily good enough for stocks, which look to earnings growth through top line growth, which is looking highly suspect.

And the higher mortgage rates have already pulled the rug out from under mortgage purchase applications and homebuilder stocks, etc. the one green shoot beginning to drive credit expansion.

And Walmart again pointing to the year end tax hikes slowing things down and low income growth keeping them from improving, and nothing in the rest of today’s numbers cause me to think top line is shifting gears, as least not for the better. And more ‘fiscal responsibility’ may be coming soon as both sides agree there is a long term deficit problem, and score political points for doing something about it.

All in the context of the macro issue where for gdp sales = income and a cut in net income from proactive deficit reduction means credit expansion elsewhere has to rise to the occasion to offset ever growing demand leakages.

Egypt and higher oil prices isn’t helping either. It wouldn’t be the first time oil price spikes toppled a suspect economy.

Walmart:


“The retail environment remains challenging in the U.S. and our international markets, as customers are cautious in their spending. Net sales in the first six months were below our expectations, so we are updating our forecast for net sales to grow between 2 and 3 percent for the full year versus our previous range of 5 to 6 percent,” said Holley. “This revision reflects our view of current global business trends, and significant ongoing headwinds from anticipated currency exchange rate fluctuations.”


“Across our International markets, growth in consumer spending is under pressure,” said Doug McMillon, Walmart International president and CEO. “Consumers in both mature and emerging markets curbed their spending during the second quarter, and this led to softer than expected sales. While this creates a challenging sales environment, we are the best equipped retailer to address the needs of our customers and help them save money.

During the 13-week period, the Walmart U.S. comp was negatively impacted by lower consumer spending due to the payroll tax increase and lower inflation than expected. Comp traffic decreased 0.5 percent, while average ticket increased 0.2 percent.

“While I’m disappointed in our comp sales decline, I’m encouraged by the improvement in traffic and comp sales as we progressed through the quarter. The 2 percent payroll tax increase continues to impact our customer,” said Bill Simon, Walmart U.S. president and CEO. “Furthermore, we also expected an increase in the level of grocery inflation, which did not materialize in a meaningful way. We were pleased that both home and apparel had positive comps.

Egypt Spirals Out Of Control


The violence that has plagued Egypt since the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi on July 3 has finally spiraled out of control. Clashes broke out across Egypt on Wednesday when police tried to break up two protests in support of Morsi. The Healthy Ministry says at least 525 were killed in the violence, and 3,717 were injured. The interim government declared a month-long state of emergency, a tool Egyptian rulers have frequently used to crack down on perceived threats. Cairo was quiet Thursday morning, but Morsis Muslim Brotherhood party has called for protests later today.

Defining “Base Money” with floating fx- The Great Reframation

With fixed fx/convertible currency ‘base money’ doesn’t include govt secs as those obligations are claims on govt reserves (gold, fx, etc.), which are part of ‘national savings’ as defined.

However, with today’s floating fx/non convertible currency tsy secs (held outside of govt) are logically additions to ‘base money’, as the notion of a reduction of govt reserves (again, gold, fx, etc) is inapplicable to non convertible currency.

That is, with today’s floating fx, I define base money as currency in circulation + $ balances in Fed accounts. And $ balances in Fed accounts include both member bank ‘reserve accounts’ and ‘securities accounts’ (tsy secs). And to me, it’s also not wrong to include any other govt guaranteed debt as well, including agency paper, etc.

That is, with floating fx, ‘base money’ can logically be defined as the total net financial assets of the non govt sectors.

(Note, for example, that this means QE does not alter base money as thus defined, which further fits the observation that QE in today’s context is nothing more than a tax that removes interest income from the economy.)

And deficit reduction is the reduction in the addition of base money to the economy, with the predictable slowing effects as observed.

The point of this post is to ‘reframe’ govt deficit spending away from ‘going into debt’ as it would be with fixed fx, to ‘adding to base money’ as is the case with floating fx where net govt spending increase the economy’s holdings of govt liabilities, aka ‘tax credits’.

Feel free to distribute!

corp profits and the federal deficit

Funny how little attention, if any, is focused on how corporate profits are a function of federal deficit spending?

Ideology conflicts?

Nothing ‘new’ about the idea that deficit spending and profits are related:

Kalecki’s most famous contribution is his profit equation.


In this model total profits (net taxes this time) are the sum of capitalist consumption, investment, public deficit, net external surplus (exports minus imports) minus workers savings.”

In any case, without an increase in net exports or some kind of material increase in credit expansion the decline in the federal deficit is highly problematic.

Corporate profits and the deficit as a % of GDP:


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Hubbard’s swan song?

The Hubbard is bare?
His concluding remarks:

America’s high and rising national debt threatens our economic health through higher future taxes, crowding out important government services, or both. The best antidote is a focus on economic growth and a balanced approach to deficit control.

Are those now the only two arrows left?
Higher future taxes and crowding out GOVERNMENT services?

Yes, higher taxes to cool demand if the output gap gets too small, which would be a good thing, and I thought it used to be that govt deficits crowd out private borrowing?

All the rest has been abandoned?
Because he now knows they are nonsensical fear mongering?

Pathetic that he carries on with it at all, of course

Republicans and Democrats Both Miscalculated

By R Glenn Hubbard and Time Kane

Steve Moore’s WSJ piece

My old buddy Stevie still up to making a nice living by spewing propaganda he knows is at best misleading and subversive.

Yes, the year end tax hikes (where was anti tax Stephen when FICA was let to expire? Wasn’t his guys getting taxed, maybe?) and spring sequesters reduced the deficit.

But I know Stevie knows the federal deficit = the net $ financial assets of the (global) economy, to the penny, as per our extensive discussion in the 1990’s, when he was earning his ‘conservative’ spin stripes at CATO. In fact, he agreed with all I stated, including the fact that privatization of Social Security is at best a ‘wheel spin’ that changes nothing in the macro economy, apart from ‘redistributing’ govt liabilities and equity ownership. But that’s another story. Point here is, he’s shamelessly intellectually dishonest, and proud of it, all the way to the bank.

Anyway, he knows full well the fall off in the federal deficit represents an equal reduction in the addition to the stock of savings of $ net financial assets and income to the economy, and has been responsible for removing maybe 2% of real output from GDP, and all the ‘negative externalities’ as they are politely called that goes with suppressing aggregate demand in the face of mass unemployment.

And he knows, if pressed, that if deficit reduction exceeds the economy’s ‘borrowing to spend’ it all goes into reverse. He even knows full well how the automatic fiscal stabilizers work to reverse an expanding economy via their reduction of the federal deficit. And, of course, he knows the entire federal debt is nothing more than a glorified ‘reserve drain’ that functions to support interest rates, and operationally has nothing to do with ‘funding’, and that ‘paying it off’ just means switching the same dollar balances at the Fed from what are called ‘securities accounts’ (tsy secs) to reserve accounts, with no grandchildren or taxpayers in sight.

This is not ‘innocent fraud.’
It’s subversion for profit.

And that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

:(
(feel free to distribute)

The Budget Sequester Is a Success

By Stephan Moore

August 11 (WSJ) — The biggest underreported story out of Washington this year is that the federal budget is shrinking and much more than anyone in either party expected.

Consider the numbers: According to the Congressional Budget Office, annual outlays peaked at $3.598 trillion in fiscal 2011. After President Obama’s first two years in office, many in Washington expected that number to hit $4 trillion by 2014. Instead, spending fell to $3.537 trillion in fiscal 2012, and is on pace to fall below $3.45 trillion by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 30). The $150 billion budget decline of 4% is the first time federal expenditures have fallen for two consecutive years since the end of the Korean War.

This reversal from the spending binge in 2009 and 2010 began with the debt-ceiling agreement between Mr. Obama and House Speaker John Boehner in 2011. The agreement set $2 trillion in tight caps on spending over a decade and created this year’s budget sequester, which will save more than $50 billion in fiscal 2013.

As long as Republicans don’t foolishly undo this amazing progress by agreeing to Mr. Obama’s demands for a “balanced approach” to the 2014 budget in exchange for calling off the sequester, additional expenditure cuts will continue automatically. Those cuts are built into the current budget law.

In other words, Mr. Obama has inadvertently chained himself to fiscal restraints that could flatten federal spending for the rest of his presidency. If the country sees any normal acceleration of economic growth (from the anemic 1.4% growth rate so far this year), the deficit is on a path to drop steadily at least through 2015. Already the deficit has fallen from its Mount Everest peak of 10.2% of gross domestic product in 2009, to about 4% this year. That’s a bullish six percentage points less of the GDP of new federal debt each year.

Admittedly, this fiscal progress follows the gigantic budget blowout that began with the last year of George W. Bush’s presidency and the first two years of Mr. Obama’s. In fiscal 2009 alone, federal spending surged by $600 billion. That same year, outlays as a share of GDP reached a post-World War II high of 25.2%. But by the end of this fiscal year, outlays as a share of GDP could fall to as low as 21.5%. At least for now, the great Washington spending blitz of the Obama first term is over.

Some $80 billion of the outlay savings have come from one-time partial repayments back to the government for the hundreds of billions spent on the bailouts of banks and of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And defense hawks won’t be happy that at least half of the fiscal retrenchment has been due to cuts in military spending. The defense budget is on a pace to hit its lowest level (as a share of GDP) since the days of the post-Cold War “peace dividend” during the Clinton years. These deep cutbacks could be dangerous to national security, but as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were winding down, defense would have been cut under any scenario. To their credit, at least Speaker Boehner and House Republicans have made sure that the defense drawdown has gone toward deficit reduction—instead of being spent on domestic social-welfare programs, as happened after the Vietnam War.

The sequester cuts in annual budgets for the military, education, transportation and other discretionary programs have also been an underappreciated success, with none of the anticipated negative consequences.

Discretionary spending soared to $1.347 billion in fiscal 2011, according to the CBO, but was then cut by $62 billion in 2012 and another $72 billion this year. That’s an impressive 10% shrinkage. And these are real cuts, not pixie-dust reductions off some sham baseline. Discretionary spending as a share of the economy hit 9.4% of GDP in fiscal 2010 but fell to 7.6% this year and is scheduled to slide to 6.4% in Mr. Obama’s last year in office.

The sequester is squeezing the very programs liberals care most about—including the National Endowment for the Arts, green-energy subsidies, the Environmental Protection Agency and National Public Radio. Outside Washington, the sequester is forcing a fiscal retrenchment for such liberal special-interest groups as Planned Parenthood and the National Council of La Raza, which have grown dependent on government largess.

But the fiscal story isn’t all rosy. The major entitlements remain on autopilot and are roaring toward insolvency. Thanks in large part to Mr. Obama’s aversion to practical fixes, the Congressional Budget Office calculates that through July of this year Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid spending are up $73 billion from just last year. This doesn’t include ObamaCare, which is scheduled to add $1 trillion of new costs over the next decade.

So the fiscal progress reported here is no excuse for complacency. But it does call into question the wisdom of a government-shutdown confrontation over the budget this fall or a debt-default showdown that runs the risk of suspending the spending caps and sequester and revitalizing an increasingly irrelevant president.

Liberals had hoped that re-electing Mr. Obama, the most pro-spending president since LBJ, would unleash another four years of Great Society government expansion. Instead, spending caps and the sequester are squashing these progressive dreams. Welcome to the new fiscal reality in Washington. All Republicans need to do is enforce the budget laws Mr. Obama has already agreed to. Entitlement reforms will come when liberals realize that the unhappy alternative is to allow every program they cherish to keep shrinking.

IMF on Japan’s debt

Just when you think they are coming around…

IMF report cites concerns over Japan’s fiscal situation

August 3 (Jiji Press) — The International Monetary Fund has expressed concern about the fiscal situation in Japan, where public debt keeps soaring.

Simulations by the IMF “suggest that global output losses could reach 2 percent of GDP” if Japan is “exposed to a reconsideration of sovereign risk by investors” and experiences a long-term interest rate jump of two percentage points, the IMF said in a report.

The international body called for a credible fiscal consolidation plan by Japan in the report on the spillovers of the domestic economic and monetary policies of major contributors to the global economy.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s three-pronged economic policy, Abenomics, is believed to have “positive, albeit small” spillover effects on the global economy in the short term if all three arrows are successfully deployed, the report said.

But the IMF also said, “The pickup in growth provided by short-term fiscal and monetary stimulus is expected to wind down after a year or so.”

In the absence of a successful reform package including fiscal consolidation, structural reforms and achievement of the new inflation target, the IMF’s simulations “suggest that output in Japan will be 4 percent lower after 10 years,” the report said.

In a different report, focusing on major nations’ external positions, the IMF said it can see “moderate undervaluation” of the yen relative to medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies, in the wake of the currency’s sharp drop since autumn last year.

But in the spillover report, the global body said, “The effects of the yen’s depreciation on competitiveness in other countries is broadly offset by the positive effects of higher growth in Japan and lower interest rates in trading partners as a result of greater capital inflows and lower sovereign risk in Japan.”

At a teleconference, an IMF economist said it has become very difficult to analyze developments in Japan because of volatile market movements and a sharp deterioration in the nation’s trade balance due to soaring imports of energy sources.

With friends like this who needs enemies…

Right on top of the wall of shame:

A message from Larry Kotlikoff

Dear Fellow Economists,

I write to ask you to join 11 Nobel Laureates in Economics, other leading economists, and former government officials in endorsing the INFORM ACT (Intergenerational Financial Obligations Reform Act) at www.theINFORMact.org. The bill was introduced on a bipartisan basis in the Senate last week, and we expect bipartisan introduction in the House next week.

All endorsements will be included in a letter to Congress, posted on the website, that will appear early this fall in a full-page ad in the New York Times.

The INFORM ACT, which I drafted in large part with the assistance of Alan Auerbach, requires the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Government Accountability Office (GAO), and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to do fiscal gap and generational accounting on an annual basis and, upon request by Congress, to use these accounting methods to evaluate major pieces of proposed legislation.

While no measure of fiscal sustainability and generational equity is perfect, fiscal gap and generational accounting offer significant advantages relative to conventional measures of official debt. First, they are comprehensive and forward-looking. Second, they are based on the government’s intertemporal budget constraint, which is a mainstay of our dynamic models of fiscal policy. Third, do not leave anything off the books.

Fiscal gap and generational accounting have been done for roughly 40 developed and developing countries either by their treasury departments, finance ministries, or central banks, or by the IMF, the World Bank, or other international agencies, or by academics and think tanks. Fiscal gap accounting is not new to our own government. The Social Security Trustees and Medicare Trustees have been presenting such calculations for their own systems for years in their annual reports. And generational accounting has been included in the President’s Budget on three occasions.

According to recent IMF and CBO projections, the U.S. fiscal gap is many times larger than the official debt and compounding much more rapidly. The longer we wait to close the fiscal gap, the more difficult will be the adjustment for ourselves and for our children. This said, acknowledging the government’s fiscal gap and deciding how to deal with it does not rule out productive government investments in infrastructure, education, research, or the environment, or in pro-growth tax reforms.

We cannot change or fully avoid politics. But our profession has a responsibility to the truth, as best we can describe it, that transcends politics –– a responsibility that becomes a moral imperative when our nation’s economic future and our children’s welfare are at stake.

Please join me in endorsing this critically important bill at www.theINFORMact.org, and please use whatever social media and communication tools you have available to encourage your colleagues, friends, and associates to do the same.

With deep appreciation for considering this request,

Larry Kotlikoff
Professor of Economics
Boston University

Comments on GDP etc.

U.S. GDP up 1.7 percent in second quarter

July 31 (UPI) &#8212 The U.S. Economy grew at an annual rate of 1.7 percent in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said in an advanced estimate Wednesday

The estimate is subject to revision as more data become available.

Just like Q1 was again revised down. Recall Q1 was initially forecast to be up about 3% (‘proving’ the year end tax hike fears were unwarranted). In what was deemed a bounce back from a cliff fear driven Q4, now reported at up only .1%.

The gross domestic product gained at a sharper rate than economists had expected. The consensus forecast called for a gain of 1.4 percent after a downwardly revised 1.1 percent growth in the first three months of the year.
First-quarter growth was reported as 1.8 percent.

Which was a downward revision from 2.5%.

Investments in commercial real estate, exports and a slowdown in government spending cuts contributed positively to the second-quarter estimate.

I wouldn’t count on exports adding much given the current global economy.

An upturn in state and local government spending partly offset an increase in imports, which subtracts from the GDP, the commerce department’s bureau of economic analysis said.

And the likes of Japan aggressively stepping up competition for our consumer $.

Real personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8 percent in the second quarter after increasing 2.3 percent in the first.

Decelerating as tax hikes and sequesters permanently remove that income.

spending on:
— durable goods rose 6.5 percent after a 5.8 percent increase in the first quarter.
— non-durable goods rose 2 percent, a slowdown from a 2.7 percent increase in the first quarter.
— services rose 0.9 percent, a drop from a 1.5 rise in the first quarter.

See charts:
1. Today’s mtg purchase apps release a bit alarming?
2. Personal consumption paying the price of higher taxes and sequesters
3. Core PCE down sharply

And

4. Take a look at year over year household survey employment ahead of Friday’s numbers. In this survey someone holding 2 part time jobs, for example, is ‘one person working’ while in the non farm payroll numbers it would count as ‘two jobs’.

So far the releases fit the narrative. Tax hikes and sequesters remove govt deficit spending that was offsetting ‘Demand leakages’. For GDP growth to increase, some other agent needs to spend more than his income. If not, output goes unsold leading to cuts in output/employment etc. Note, in line with the narrative, inventory accumulation added about .4% to Q2 GDP in this report.

At the macro level, it’s going to take more deficit spending- either public or private- to sustain growth and employment. And with any growth comes govt deficit reduction via the automatic stabilizers, thus requiring that much more deficit spending from other agents.

Mortgage Purchase Applications


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Personal Consumption


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Core PCE Deflator


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Household Employment Survey YoY


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