ISM Archive

ism rebound

Manufacturing seems to have rebounded from recent lows. Time (and credit expansion) will tell if it falls back to recent ‘average’ or moves on to new highs. Full size image ...Read More


Karim writes: Pretty bad payroll number that is likely to be enough to swing the Fed into action-at least Operation Twist, if not QE3 Payrolls unch for August, though Verizon strike impact was 45k Net revisions -58k Unemployment rate unch at 9.1% on account of 331k gain in household survey (prior 2mths ...Read More

ISM/Consumer Credit

Karim writes: Similar to Manufacturing ISM, Non-Mfg activity largely stabilized in June. Most components also stable One notable feature of most PMIs is the collapse of input prices over the last 3mths. Although not a feature of this report, output prices have held largely steady in most surveys-suggesting margins are expanding. Interesting ...Read More

Comments on Non-Mfg ISM

Looks from the chart we’re getting close to the post Bush tax cut, coming out of that recession highs, so we’re on track for our 3-5% read gdp growth guestimates. And the high productivity reported today reinforces our thoughts on unemployment coming down only slowly as well. Last time around the expansion ...Read More

ISM- Obama boom!

Karim writes: Across the board strength. More evidence that the inventory drag in Q4 was involuntary (demand running well ahead of production). While some of these figures may cool, the order backlog and supplier delivery indices (lead times) suggest very strong data for the next few quarters. Overall index: Highest since May ...Read More

Non-Mfg ISM

Karim writes: Details firm-especially new orders and employment (highest level since Oct 2007) Nov Oct Composite 55.0 54.3 Prices Paid 63.2 68.3 New Orders 57.7 56.7 Employment 52.7 50.9 Export orders 59.5 55.5 Imports 54.5 54.0 “Business remains steady; outlook for fourth quarter is good.” (Information) “Trending favorable — see more activity ...Read More

Non-Mfg ISM

With a federal budget deficit still as large as it is, not all that much of a surprise. Karim writes: Nice upside surprise: Orders and employment both up on the month; export orders up sharply (but not seasonally adjusted) Sept Aug Composite 53.2 51.5 Activity 52.8 54.4 Prices Paid 60.1 60.3 New ...Read More

U.S. Data/Dudley

Karim writes: Data: General impression is manufacturing is slowing but ‘building blocks’ for consumer getting better (sorry for delay) Consumer Personal income up 0.5% in Aug and now running 3.3% y/y This is a very significant positive. With personal income rising at this rate the chances of negative growth are slim and ...Read More

Non-Mfg ISM

With modest GDP growth and a 1.4 trillion deficit downside to equities can only come from an external shock. High unemployment keeps the Fed on hold and the 0 rate policy keeps costs of production down and keeps personal income gains modest. At least for now, the combo of 0 rates and ...Read More


I tend to agree with Karim and Fed Chairman Bernanke. Modestly improving GDP growth with unemployment coming down very gradually until a consumer credit expansion takes hold. Good for stocks, not so good for most of the people still struggling to survive, as the Obama administration continues to preside over what might ...Read More