Canada Archive

ADP, Mtg purchase apps, Capital spending report, Oil prices

Winding down from post hurricane levels, however keep in mind this is a forecast of Friday’s number, not report of actual private payrolls: Highlights A pre-hurricane total of 190,000 is ADP’s call for November private payroll growth which would follow a hurricane-related upswing of 252,000 in October and 15,000 downswing in September. ...Read More

Trade, Redbook retail sales, PMI services, ISM services

As previously discussed, the US bill for oil imports went up: Highlights Fourth-quarter net exports get off to a weak start as October’s trade deficit, at $48.7 billion, comes in much deeper than expected and well beyond September’s revised $44.9 billion. Exports, at $195.9 billion in the month, failed to improve in ...Read More

Employment, Trade, M2, Public employment, Rig count

More than the entire gain in civilian employment seems to have been via part time work: Highlights The second half of the year opens on a strong note as nonfarm payrolls rose 209,000 in July, far above Econoday’s consensus for 178,000. The unemployment rate moved 1 tenth lower to 4.3 percent while ...Read More

Factory orders, Trade, Chain store sales

Highlights Factory orders, like much of the economy, fizzled in March, up only 0.2 percent and skewed higher for a third month in a row by aircraft. The split between the report’s two main components shows a 0.5 percent dip for nondurable goods — the new data in today’s report where weakness ...Read More

Trade, Manufacturing new orders, Redbook retail sales, GDP forecasts

The trade deficit was a bit less than expected, all due to lower imports. The question is whether this means there were more domestic purchases, whether this is an indicator of lower aggregate demand: Highlights In favorable news for first-quarter GDP, the nation’s trade gap hit Econoday’s low estimate in February at ...Read More

Trade, Consumer credit

As previously discussed, trade looks to be more negative in q1 than it was in q4: Highlights January’s trade deficit came in very deep but at least right on expectations, at $48.5 billion and reflecting a surge in foreign consumer and vehicle imports and higher prices for imported oil. January imports rose ...Read More

PMI, Earnings, euro zone holdings, oil related comments

Trumped up expectations cooling a bit? PMI Manufacturing Index Flash Services: Initial earnings estimates have tended to fall: This is extraordinary, as their liabilities are most likely predominately euro denominated, which is what I’d call a ‘fundamental short’ position. That is, this has been part of the ‘portfolio shifting’ that has been ...Read More

Jolts, Consumer credit, Trade, Brexit poll

Still looks to me like it’s already rolled over: Less than expected indicating spending likely to be less than expected as well: Highlights Growth in consumer credit slowed in December, to $14.2 billion vs an upward revised $25.2 billion in November. Revolving credit showed less life in December than prior months, rising ...Read More

Trumped up expectations, Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment, Redbook retail sales, Executive orders, GDP comment, Trump comments, Income and spending chart

Trumped up expectations vs ‘hard data’: Highlights January was a flat month for the Chicago PMI which could manage only 50.3, virtually at the breakeven 50.0 level that indications no change from the prior month. New orders have now joined backlog orders in contraction in what is a negative combination for future ...Read More

Payrolls, Factory orders, Foreign trade, Retailers, Boston rents

The year over year chart continues its 2 year deceleration unabated. No telling where it ends but the end will coincide with increased deficit spending, private or public: Highlights Job growth may be the new economic policy but wage inflation may be the risk. Nonfarm payrolls rose a lower-than-expected 156,000 in December ...Read More