Business Weekly: Salary offers move higher

Overall starting salaries for 2008 graduates post a 7.1% increase, according to a quarterly report, in spite of the slowdown

by Sara Hennessey

Despite the weak state of the economy and the large number of businesses being forced to make cuts and lay off employees, it seems recent hires can expect to maintain competitive starting salaries, according to a recent 2008 undergraduate study.

The latest quarterly report of salary offers to grads, released by the National Association of Colleges & Employers (NACE) on July 2, shows an overall increase of 7.1% in starting salaries in all majors, compared to a year ago. Increases for business students lagged the overall market, however, posting only a 4% increase.

NACE National Employment Manager Andrea Koncz says the results were surprising because the group’s spring report (BusinessWeek.com, 4/17/08) seemed to hint salary increases would be flattening out due to the economic slowdown. “However, the current report shows that salaries are in fact still rising,” Koncz says.

For business grads, the average salary offers varied by specialty. Business administration and management grads fared especially well, posting a 5.1% increase over the previous year. Marketing grads saw an equally strong increase — 4.7% over last year. Economics majors saw a 4.2% increase, according to the survey, and finance grads saw a 2.8% increase. While accounting grads reported a modest 2.9% increase in their average offer, it’s a gain compared with NACE’s spring report, which found no year-over-year salary increase for accounting majors.

Hiring Down?
As for the hiring outlook, college employment experts remained cautious that the economic downturn will reduce the number of job offers for undergrads. NACE’s Koncz says her organization will begin asking companies about their hiring plans in late summer. In the meantime, she says initial indications are that companies may be cutting back on new hires. “Whereas last year (companies) were saying they would be hiring 16% more graduates, this year they’re anticipating hiring only 8% more,” Koncz says.

Linda Scales, director of career services at the University of San Diego, says that while alums have reported declining job offers, she hasn’t noticed the same trend for recent grads. Scales calls herself “cautiously optimistic” and says she hasn’t noticed companies holding back in offering jobs to recent grads.

“So far, there’s been no downturn,” she says, “and we keep wondering if it’s coming.” Scales adds that companies may have learned from the last recession and recognize that “there’s a continued need for new blood and new hires.”

Tammie King, director of the career management center at Texas Tech University’s Rawls College of Business, agrees that companies are going to continue to hire, albeit cautiously. “Companies that would normally hire, say, eight entry-level employees are hiring only four,” she says.

Whatever the hiring levels, Jeannette Frett, assistant dean and director of career management for the MBA program at Georgetown’s McDonough School of Business, says starting salaries are likely to continue to rise. “It’s really about supply and demand,” Frett says. “Companies are looking to do more with less, and those with the right talent and the right skills will be able to maintain a competitive salary.”

Schmidt of RBS favors USD over Euro — a turning point?????


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Bloomberg News Video Clip

Maybe, but…

It will be tough for the USD index to move up without the CBs and monetary authorities buying it, and that means crossing Paulson and accepting being labeled a ‘currency manipulator’ and ‘outlaw.’

And the higher crude prices mean USD spent on imports increase and unless spending on US domestic assets, goods, and services goes up by that much those unspent USD need to be/are ‘saved’ by non-residents and the USD goes to a level that reflects their current desire to accumulate them.

A rising USD is evidence that the foreign sector wants the extra USDs and are fighting over them. A falling dollar is evidence of the reverse.

Also, if they don’t like the other currencies any more than they like the USD, the currencies can remain relatively stable as the excess USDs are all spent on US exports and US domestic assets. The evidence of this is rising/accelerating US exports and export prices and support for US assets which can include real estate and equities. Note the falling USD has made US equities that much cheaper for non-USD based investors.

This is all part of the same adjustment process, which includes ‘inflation’ as all the pieces described above support higher prices for goods and services both in the US and elsewhere.

And the ‘inflation channel’ also is part of the adjustment of the trade gap. I use the extreme example (hopefully it’s only an extreme example) of prices adjusting upward until coffee is $60 billion a cup, in which case the trade gap of $60 billion per month is only one cup of coffee. In other words, higher prices work to bring down the ‘real’ trade gap.

So they are all working together -trade, fx, prices- within current institutional arrangements (including CBs not wanting to be labeled outlaws and currency manipulators vs the desire to support their exporters, etc) as they always and continuously do to adjust desired to actual ‘savings’ of financial assets, and sustain all the indifference levels.

A turning point if the level of the USD is sufficiently low to drive the US exports and asset sales to non residents needed to keep their residual accumulation of USD to their desired levels.

And with crude prices still rising, it seems likely to me that more USD are being credited to ‘their’ accounts than they currently wish to cling to at current exchange rates, so more downward pressure on the USD would not surprise me. Along with the associated increase in US exports and higher prices in general.


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2008-07-07 Weekly Credit Graph Packet


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IG On-the-run Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG6 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG7 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG8 Spreads (Jul 7)

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IG9 Spreads (Jul 7)

Still working its way higher.


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