Tag Archives: RPX Composite 28dy

2008-10-02 USER

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Monster Employment Index (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 160.00
Prior 159.00
Revised n/a

 
Counter trend move higher?

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Monster Employment Index MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Slightly positive.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 475K
Actual 497K
Prior 493K
Revised 496K

 
Still high, but subtract maybe 50,000 for hurricanes and maybe the Boeing strike as well.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 3550K
Actual 3591K
Prior 3542K
Revised 3543K

 
This was leveling off until the extended benefits package took effect, and has resumed its climb since.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 27)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.76%
Prior -17.15%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 224.28
Prior 230.00
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Still trending up year over year, but combined with other recent data doesn’t look good.

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Factory Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE (Aug)

 
Defense keeping this from being a lot worse.

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Aug)

 
Shipments down, unfilled orders up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 1k to 497k, with 40-50k still accounted for by hurricanes (4wk avg 474k).

  • Continuing claims, not effected by hurricanes, rise another 48k to new cycle high of 3542k (4wk avg 3528k).

  • Continuing claims more highly correlated to duration of unemployment and wage demands.

  • Consensus NFP tomorrow is -105k; based on claims, Conf Board and ISM surveys, risks seem more in -150k area.


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2008-07-02 US Economic Releases

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Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

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ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

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Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

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Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


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2008-06-02 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-02 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -13.97%
Prior -11.00%
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-02 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 235.40
Prior 239.31
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-02 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -0.6%

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2008-06-02 Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Also better than expected, and showing signs of life as the fiscal package kicks in.

All eyes are on residential which appears to be slowing its decline and should be doing less damage to GDP.

Just heard Lehman raised Q2 GDP estimate to up 1% from down 0.4%.

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2008-06-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

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2008-06-02 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (May)

Survey 85.0
Actual 87.0
Prior 84.5
Revised n/a

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2008-06-02 ISM Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Manufacturing TABLE

Better than expected and looking like a bottom to me, with the fiscal package just now kicking in.

Recession fears a fading memory?

Prices paid way and higher than expected as FOMC turns its attention towards inflation.


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2008-04-03 US Economic Releases

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2008-04-03 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 29)

Survey 366K
Actual 407K
Prior 366K
Revised 369K

2008-04-03 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Mar 22)

Survey 2860K
Actual 2937K
Prior 2845K
Revised 2840K

This is now more in line with what’s looked like near zero growth for the first quarter, and not much more is expected for Q2.

While fear of systemic risk has been reduced with the realization that the Fed/Tsy can -and probably will- simply ‘write checks’ as needed, that doesn’t guarantee general weakness won’t continue.

As Karim has been indicating, we may be near the end of rate cuts, but continued weakness could mean rates stay down for a ‘considerable period.’

Also note markets aren’t (yet) moving much on this.

With reduced systemic risk fears, these types of numbers are more ‘rear view mirror’ events than forward looking regarding the future of GDP growth.

In other words, data can be forward looking for some purposes, like systemic risk, and rear view mirror for other purposes, like GDP growth.

Also, Bernanke pointed to differences between now and the 1930’s, leaving out the largest factor – the gold standard. With a fixed exchange rate policy the govt can’t ‘simply write checks’ as that tends to result in outflows of gold/spikes in interest rates that can quickly lead to default/devaluation.

(The US shut down in the payments system in 1934 and reopened with a domestically suspended gold standard and federal deposit insurance.)

From Karim:

  • Initial claims spike from 369k to 407k; a labor department spokesman said that more claims were processed last week due to good Friday holiday the week before

  • So that means that the rate of change is exaggerated, but not the level (prior week should have been more than 369k

  • Continuing claims (which come out with a 1 week lag) rose from 2840k to 2937k; if to follow the same pattern as continuing claims, should rise again next week

  • Employment component of last non-mfg ISM will be important in shaping final estimates for payrolls tomorrow; right now looks to be about flat

2008-04-03 ISM Non-Manf. Composite

ISM Non-Manf. Composite (Mar)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.6
Prior 49.3
Revised n/a


Nice bounce off the bottom though longer term still drifting lower.

2008-04-03 ISM TABLE

2008-04-03 ISM TABLE

ISM TABLE (Mar)

From Karim:

Consolidating at contraction levels; employment unch at 46.9;

Yes, bodes for flat Q1 and probably a slow start to Q2.

inventory
sentiment remains poor (inventories too high)

Yes, meaning they are running relatively lean for a recession.

Also, new orders up some export orders up very sharply to 55, indicating continuing weakness for domestic demand but exports picking up the slack and then some.

Prices paid up and too high as well.

Weakness and higher prices continues.

(Crude now up on the day.)

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2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

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2007-02-01 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey 70K
Actual -17K
Prior 18K
Revised 82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)

2008-02-01 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate

Survey 5.0%
Actual 4.9%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.

2008-02-01 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey -20K
Actual -28K
Prior -31K
Revised -20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.

2008-02-01 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-02-01 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey 3.9%
Actual 3.7%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.

2008-02-01 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours

Survey 33.8
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.8
Revised n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.

2008-02-01 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1681
Prior -3.4285
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 254.3
Prior 255.5
Revised 258.9

November housing was weak.

2008-02-01 U. of Michigan Confidence

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 79.0
Actual 78.4
Prior 80.5
Revised n/a

Not bad.

2008-02-01 U. of Michigan TABLE

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE

2008-02-01 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 47.3
Actual 50.7
Prior 47.7
Revised 48.4

Back to growth mode.

2008-02-01 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey 68.0
Actual 76.0
Prior 68.0
Revised n/a

Inflation ripping here.

2008-02-01 Construction Spending

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -1.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised -0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

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2008-01-02 US Economic Releases

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 258.86
Prior 259.22
Revised n/a

2008-01-02 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4295
Prior -2.4848
Revised n/a

Metropolitan housing prices remain very weak.

2008-01-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey 50.5
Actual 47.7
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

On the weak side – mainly new orders.

Employment ok.

2008-01-02 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey 65.0
Actual 68.0
Prior 67.5
Revised n/a

No weakness here!

2008-01-02 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.4%

Stronger than expected; may have bottomed.

2008-01-02 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -20
Prior -23
Revised n/a

Moderately less negative.

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