2008-05-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 29, 2008 @ 5:59 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 9:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 9:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 9:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 9:30 EST)
Initial Jobless Claims (Released 9:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 9:30 EST)
Help Wanted Index (Released 11:00 EST)

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q P)

Survey	0.9%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	1.5%
Revised	1.7%

Staying clear of recession levels.
Looking like Q4 was the bottom of this move.

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Personal Consumption (1Q P)

Survey	1.0%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	1.0%
Revised	n/a

As expected,Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â not collapsing as feared, yet.

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GDP Price Index (1Q P)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.6%
Revised	n/a

Not good, and pipeline pressures continuing to build.

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q P)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

A little better than expected.

But trend looking up.

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 24)

Survey	370K
Actual	372K
Prior	365K
Revised	368K

Seems to be leveling off.

Fiscal package should help.

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Continuing Claims (May 17)

Survey	3060K
Actual	3104K
Prior	3073K
Revised	3068K

Lagging indicator, still trending higher, but still far below recession levels.

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Help Wanted Index (Apr)

Survey	19
Actual	19
Prior	19
Revised	n/a

Indicator of soft jobs markets.

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2008-04-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 30, 2008 @ 11:23 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

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MBAVPRCH Index (Released 7:00 EST)
MBAVREFI Index (Released 8:15 EST)
ADP Employment Change (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST)
Employment Cost Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:45 EST)
NAPM-Milwaukee (Released 10:00 EST)
FOMC Rate Decision (Released 14:15 EST)

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 25)

Survey	n/a
Actual	340.1
Prior	357.3
Revised	n/a

Definately looking weak. Winter is over, and tax rebates are in the mail.

MBAVREFI Index (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1905.2
Prior	2286.3
Revised	n/a

Settling down as well.

ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey	-60K
Actual	10K
Prior	8K
Revised	3K

Employment growth continues to slow over time but not yet signaling recession.

Non-farm payrolls muddling through as well.

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Still in the black, and my guess is it’s likely to be revised up with the March trade numbers that are due in in a couple of weeks.

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

Survey	0.7%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

Also holding up better than expected, and rebates are on the way.

GDP Price Index (1Q A)

Survey	3.0%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.4%
Revised	n/a

Better than expected, still high, and with crude continuing to move up it’s going up as well.

Core PCE QoQ (1Q A)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.5%
Revised	n/a

The trend is up, and the Fed is monitoring it closely…

Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.7%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Looks under control, but not a brake on inflation.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey	47.5%
Actual	48.3%
Prior	48.2%
Revised	n/a

A touch better than expected, but still trending lower.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	48.0
Prior	47.0
Revised	n/a

Also not down to recession levels yet.

FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 30)

Survey	2.00%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	2.25%
Revised	n/a

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2008-03-27 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 27, 2008 @ 9:22 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP Annualized (4Q F)

Survey	0.6%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Personal Consumption (4Q F)

Survey	1.9%
Actual	2.3%
Prior	1.9%
Revised	n/a

Revised up to a very respectable number. And income remains positive, and employment is at high levels.

GDP Price Index (4Q F)

Survey	2.7%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

A bit better than previously reported, but prices have subsequently gone much higher.

Core PCE QoQ (4Q F)

Survey	2.7%
Actual	2.5%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

The Fed is more concerned about this and the evidence food and energy is getting passed through from headline to core measures.

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 22)

Survey	370K
Actual	366K
Prior	378K
Revised	375K

Continuing Claims (Mar 15)

Survey	2885K
Actual	2845K
Prior	2865K
Revised	2850K

Best guess:

The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with todayÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week.

That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it.

It does mean the real economy has figured out how to move on with whatÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s left of the financial sector.

Help Wanted Index (Feb)

Survey	20
Actual	21
Prior	21
Revised	22

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2008-02-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 29, 2008 @ 10:02 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	4.9
Prior	5.6
Revised	n/a

Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.

This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.

Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5.5%
Prior	5.8%
Revised	n/a

Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.

Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.8%
Prior	2.1%
Revised	n/a

Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

This is problematic for the Fed.

Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.

Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

As above, this is way too high for comfort.

Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.9%
Prior	2.0%
Revised	n/a

Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.

PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

As above.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey	49.5
Actual	44.5
Prior	51.5
Revised	n/a

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.

New orders up as well.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey	70.0
Actual	70.8
Prior	69.6
Revised	n/a

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

While better than expected, does not look good.

And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	53.0
Prior	58.0
Revised	n/a

Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..

GDP/ADP

Posted on January 30, 2008 @ 11:20 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

From Karim:

GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6%
Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5%
DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%)
Residential FI (housing) down 23.9%
Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y
Net exports add 0.4% to gwth
Inventories a drag by 1.25%
Inventory/shipment ratio still at recent highs, so unlikely that inventory drag is over yet

ADP gain of 130k signals upside risk to consensus 65k advance in nfp; while usually reliable, adp has also had some spectacular misses

In light of decline in jobs hard to get component of conference board survey and adp, will call for 90k gain in nfp Friday.

Pretty long period between jan and march fed meetings (next meeting march 21). So by next meeting, will have 2 nfp reports to look at as well as decent idea on Q1 gwth. Bernanke testimony likely on 2/27.

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2008-01-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 30, 2008 @ 9:05 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBAVPRCH Index + 4 Wk Ave + 12 Wk Ave

From Karim:
very volatile series-see chart-white line is purchase index-purple line is 4wk avg and green line is 12wk avg-latter is probably best indicator of trend and looks like still heading lower. Of course this series also reflects multiple applications for same home purchase, which is more likely over the past few months in light of tighter standards for many borrowers, so probably have to adjust for that compared to same series a year ago.

MBA Refinancing Index (Jane 25)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5103.6
Prior	4178.2
Revised	n/a

Refi index positive for ‘market functioning’, but purchase index could be softening.

As before, winter housing numbers are volatile.

ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey	40K
Actual	130K
Prior	40K
Revised	37K

Not the stuff of recession. While not a reliable predictor of Friday’s payroll report, it is a ‘real’ number as it’s ADP’s report of 392,000 business it services.

GDP Annualized (4Q A)

Survey	1.2%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	4.9%
Revised	n/a

Lower than expected but still positive, consumer up 2% which is far from recession, and final sales for domestic purchases were up 1.4%, and the Dec export number won’t be reported until Feb 14. The durable goods number yesterday may portend a higher than estimated export number for the next Q4 GDP revised report. Inventories were burned off by 1.25% of GDP, which is also generally not indicative of recession.

Personal Consumption (4Q A)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	2.8%
Revised	n/a

Down but not terrible, and not the stuff of recession

GDP Price Index (4Q A)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	1.0%
Revised	n/a

Not good.

Core PCE QoQ (4Q A)

Survey	2.5%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	2.0%
Revised	n/a

Very troubling to the Fed. Mainstream theory says you can’t let core elevate. The cost to bring it down is much higher than any possible losses due to near term weakness caused by keeping rates high.

FOMC Rate Decision (Jan 30)

Survey	3.0%
Actual	3.0%
Prior	3.5%
Revised	n/a

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2007-12-20 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 20, 2007 @ 3:04 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP Annualized (3QF)

Survey	4.9%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	4.9%
Revised	n/a

Personal Consumption (3QF)

Survey	42.8.9%
Actual	2.8%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

GDP Price Index (3QF)

Survey	0.9%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	0.9%
Revised	n/a

Above numbers as expected.

Core PCE QoQ (3QF)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

This is now at the upper bound of the fed’s comfort zone.

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 15)

Survey	335K
Actual	346K
Prior	333K
Revised	334K

Creeping up.

Fed gets concerned if it gets over 375K.

Continuing Claims (Dec 8)

Survey	2610K
Actual	264K
Prior	2639K
Revised	2634K

Creeping up as well, but not yet a major concern.

Leading Indicators (Nov)

Survey	-0.3%
Actual	-0.5%
Prior	-0.5%
Revised	n/a

Pretty much in line with expectations.

Philadelphia Fed. (Dec)

Survey	6.0%
Actual	-5.7%
Prior	8.2%
Revised	n/a

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2007-11-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 3:29 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

GCP Annualized (3QP)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	3.9%
Revised	n/a

Keeps coming in above expectations.

Personal Consumption (3QP)

Survey	2.9%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	3.0%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

GDP Price Index (3QP)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

Core PCE QoQ (3QP)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	1.8%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)

Survey	330K
Actual	352K
Prior	330K
Revised	329K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

Continuing Claims (Nov 17)

Survey	2575K
Actual	2665K
Prior	2566K
Revised	2553K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey	750K
Actual	728K
Prior	770K
Revised	716K

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey	-2.6%
Actual	1.7%
Prior	4.8%
Revised	-0.1%

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

Help Wanted Index (Oct)

Survey	23
Actual	23
Prior	24
Revised	n/a

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

House Price Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-0.4%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Moving lower.
Do you think any of this is below fed expectations as of October 31st?

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