Tag Archives: ADP

Non-Mfg ISM//Payrolls

Posted on by


Karim writes:

All key components up; prices paid lower but still at high level.
Employment up 4pts and up 4.5pts relative to 6mth avg.

Hopefully, BLS can put a reasonable number on snowstorm impact on Friday.
Ex-snow and census workers, would look for +25-50k number.



Feb Jan
Composite 53.0 50.5
Activity 54.8 52.2
Prices paid 60.4 61.2
New Orders 55.0 54.7
Employment 48.6 44.6
Exports 47.0 46.0
Imports 48.5 47.0

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …

  • “Conditions for our business have substantially improved over the last three months.” (Information)
  • “We are proceeding with caution based upon the current market conditions.” (Public Administration)
  • “Business activity about the same as last month. Perhaps a slight increase in new orders for material and services — nothing major.” (Utilities)
  • “The overall unemployment and the net effect of housing [instability] continue to affect our business.” (Retail Trade)
  • “Business is okay. Customers are doing a lot of price shopping.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
Share

ISM/ADP

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

We’ll see if the zero rate policy keeps giving that feeling that the economy is dragging an anchor chain, and requires lower taxes for a given amount of govt. spending to sustain a lower output gap.


Karim writes:

  • ADP, claims and employment component of ISM survey consistent with payroll gwth of 0 to -50k on Friday.
  • ISM (non-mfg) moves back above 50


Dec Nov
Composite 50.1 48.7
Activity 53.7 49.6
Prices paid 58.7 57.8
New Orders 52.1 55.1
Employment 44.0 41.6

  • “Economy seems to have leveled off with expectation of an upswing in our business in Q1 2010.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
  • “There has been a slight upturn in our business activities; however, it is not entirely attributable to any one particular source.” (Public Administration)
  • “The environment seems to be improving, but we will continue to be cautious as we look forward.” (Retail Trade)
  • “The current economic conditions are continuing to have a flat or negative effect on our business.” (Wholesale Trade)
  • “No items in short supply; suppliers looking to set up agreements for 2010 with quarterly or semiannual price reviews.” (Arts, Entertainment & Recreation)


[top]

Share

3 most important numbers

Posted on by

From Karim:

  1. Index of aggregate hours -0.3%
  1. Diffusion index from 50.0 to 46.2
  1. Median duration of unemployment from 8.4 to 8.8 weeks

So output likely declining, more industries shedding jobs than adding, and l-t unemployed accounting for larger % of total unemployed

Other notes..

  • Unemployment rate falls from 4.97% to 4.925%.

Partially reversing last month’s rise.

  • Temp jobs fall by 9k (good coincident indicator)
  • Average hourly earnings up only 0.2%
  • Net revisions to 2007 -376k
  • NFP decline of 17k first decline since 8/03

This is not the first reported drop in payrolls, as August originally reported down 4,000. It was eventually revised up to 92,000 and then further revised up to 74,000 with benchmark revisions.

December was revised up to 82,000 from 18,000.

November down from 115,000 to 60,000.

This rearranges the sequence with November now possible the bottom, should January get revised up higher than 82,000.

  • Rare decline posted in business services (-11k)
  • Mfg (-28k) surprising in light of weak $
  • Construction sheds another 27k
  • Govt loses a surprising 18k jobs

Yes, these look like the kind of numbers likely to result in the kinds of revisions we’ve been seeing continuously for at least six months.

And the revisions to payroll numbers have put them more in line with the ADP numbers.

ADP was up 130,000 for January.

December durable goods was a blowout number.

Inventories were down substantially in Q4.

While the initial reported payroll numbers have all been substantially revised, markets have continued to respond to the initial reports and not to the revisions.

♥

Share

GDP/ADP

Posted on by

From Karim:

  • GDP slows from 4.9% to 0.6%
  • Personal consumption slows from 2.8% to 2.5%
  • DGO strength in Dec shows up in modest positive in equipment and software (+3.8%)
  • Residential FI (housing) down 23.9%
  • Core PCE up 2.7% annualized for quarter and 2.1% y/y
  • Net exports add 0.4% to gwth
  • Inventories a drag by 1.25%
  • Inventory/shipment ratio still at recent highs, so unlikely that inventory drag is over yet
  • ADP gain of 130k signals upside risk to consensus 65k advance in nfp; while usually reliable, adp has also had some spectacular misses
  • In light of decline in jobs hard to get component of conference board survey and adp, will call for 90k gain in nfp Friday.
  • Pretty long period between jan and march fed meetings (next meeting march 21). So by next meeting, will have 2 nfp reports to look at as well as decent idea on Q1 gwth. Bernanke testimony likely on 2/27.

♥

Share