Tag Archives: Personal Consumption

PCE

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Yes, these numbers look to throw a wet blanket on global market psychology. The better than expected earnings season is pretty much fully discounted, and month end/month beginning allocations are behind us.

June was a weak month for government spending that seems to have been reversed in July (from Mike Norman), which accounts for the lower ‘savings rate,’ but those numbers won’t show up for a while.

And the talk by the administration, Congress, and all the critics regarding ‘fiscal responsibility’ and tax increases has functioned to make the point a ‘second stimulus’ is out of the questions without some kind of collapse.

Inflation remains in check with the large output gap keeping a lid on wages and relatively stable crude oil prices keeping costs under control.


Karim writes:

  • Weakness in personal income (-1.3%) a bit more than expected, largely reflecting end of government transfers to households
  • But wage and salary income also still very weak, down 0.4% and down every month this year.
  • Yr/Yr personal income down 3.4% and wage and salary income down 4.7%
  • Drop on personal savings rate from 6.2% to 4.6% largely reflects weakness in income described above
  • Revisions in PCE Deflator reflect same as occurred in GDP data last week: YR/YR Deflator through May now -0.3% vs 0.1% and Core Deflator now 1.6% vs 1.8%.
  • For June, headline deflator rose 0.546% and fell 0.4% Yr/Yr; Core Deflator rose 0.161% and 1.5% Yr/Yr.

Putting aside July auto sales, hard to see meaningful rebound in consumer spending (70% of GDP) with these income numbers; record string of decline in labor income


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2009-03-27 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.2%

 
Karim writes:

  • Personal income down 0.2%, down 4 of last 5mths, and up 1% y/y
  • Wage and salary income down 0.4%, down 4mths in a row, and -0.2% y/y
  • Personal spending up 0.2%, and down 0.2% in real terms
  • Based on Jan-Feb data, real Q1 spending may be flat from -4.3% in Q4
  • But because of weakening trend thru Q1, sets up for another negative in Q2
  • Saw one forecaster change Q1 estimate from -7.2% to -6.5% and leave Q2 estimate unch at -4.8%

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Personal Income YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.0%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Feb)

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Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 1.0%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.7%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

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PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 1.6%
Revised 1.7%

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U of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey 56.8
Actual 57.3
Prior 56.6
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final Michigan survey for March showed small upward revision in confidence: 56.6 to 57.3 (Feb was 56.3)
  • 5-10yr inflation expectations revised lower: 2.8 to 2.6 (Feb was 3.1)

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    U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb)


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2009-01-30 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q A)

Survey -5.5%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

Better than expected at -3.8% due to inventory build.

Here is the GDP math:

Private consumption (-2.5%) + Business Fixed Investment (-3.1%) + Government (+0.4%) + Net Exports (+0.1%) + Chg in Inventories (+1.3%)

  • Real final sales of -5.1% were consistent with estimates.
  • Business sector overestimated domestic demand, thereby accounting for the inventory build (should reverse in Q1).
  • Core PCE deflator slowed from 2.4% to 0.6%.
  • Within investment, both housing (-23.6%) and equipment/software (-27.8%) were very weak.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey 0.4%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX 1 (4Q)

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GDP ALLX 2 (4Q)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.5%
Actual -3.5%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (4Q)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.59%
Prior -20.14%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 199.39
Prior 206.73
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey 34.9
Actual 33.3
Prior 34.1
Revised 35.1

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NAPM Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 33.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 61.2
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan F)


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2008-12-23 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to slip.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.60%
Prior 0.60%
Revised n/a

 
Cheaper gasoline helping some?

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.00%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.70%
Prior -0.70%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

No meaningul sign of cheaper gasoline helping here yet.

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 16)

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q F)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Tiny positive for the year.

Next quarter looking negative.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
This is heading to new lows as well.

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GDP Price Index (3Q F)

Survey 4.25
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse.

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q F)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse some.

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GDP ALLX 1 (3Q F)

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GDP ALLX 2 (3Q F)

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Personal Consumption (3Q F)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Sudden fall from ‘muddling through’ to recession.

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Univ of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey 58.8
Actual 60.1
Prior 59.1
Revised n/a

 
Gasoline prices helping here.

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Univ of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec F)

 
Back to where the Fed wants them to be.

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New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 415k
Actual 407k
Prior 433k
Revised 419k

 
A bit lower than expected and last month revised down some.

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 374.00
Prior 402.00
Revised n/a

 
Down to very low levels and one reason sales are low.

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New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.9%
Prior -5.2%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -35.3%
Prior -42.0%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 220.40
Prior 214.60
Revised n/a

 
Up, but still trending lower.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Nov)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 4.93M
Actual 4.49M
Prior 4.98M
Revised 4.91M

 
Large drop.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -8.6%
Prior -3.1%
Revised -4.5%

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still well off the bottom.

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.234
Prior 4.272
Revised n/a

 
Falling some, but new foreclosures probably keeping this high.

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Nov)

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House Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.2%

 
Still falling.

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House Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.5%
Prior -7.0%
Revised n/a

 
No bottom in sight yet.

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House Price Index ALLX (Nov)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey -40
Actual -55
Prior -38
Revised n/a

 
Very weak.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Dec)


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2008-10-31 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.4%

 
A tick better than expected but last month revised down same.

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Personal Income YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be on the decline as expected.

Lower interest rates are also a drag on income, as households are net savers.

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Personal Income ALLX (Sep)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and took dive as the publicity around the credit crisis petrified businesses and consumers.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.8%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Heading south but still growing some.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Sep)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected and staying high even with commodities coming down.

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PCE Core MoM (Sep)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected.

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PCE Core YoY (Sep)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Holding firm, at least for now.

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Employment Cost Index (3Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

 
Well contained.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (3Q)

 
The surveys have a large subjective component, and have all taken dives recently.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.96%
Prior -17.76%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 219.67
Prior 224.28
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Oct)

Survey 48.0
Actual 37.8
Prior 56.7
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 42.0
Prior 46.0
Revised n/a


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2008-09-29 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -0.6%

 
Better than expected and prior month revised up a tenth. Fiscal packages don’t fade as quickly as the mainstream guesses.

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Personal Income YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a

 
Good enough to keep GDP muddling through, though the financial crisis could slow spending down some.

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Personal Income ALLX (Aug)

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Personal Consumption MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.1%

 
Less than expected even though income holding up, and prior revised up a tenth. Income in excess of spending doesn’t usually persist.

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Personal Consumption YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.6%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

 
On the soft side and continuing its gradual decline.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Aug)

Survey 4.5%
Actual 4.5%
Prior 4.5%
Revised 4.6%

 
As expected and too high for Fed comfort.

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PCE Core MoM (Aug)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

 
Remains firm.

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PCE Core YoY (Aug)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised 2.5%

 
Higher than expected, prior revised up a tenth, and looks to be breaking out. Not encouraging for the Fed. They want it below 2.0%.

Karim writes:

  • Nominal PCE unchanged in August after two consecutive declines.

  • Real consumer spending tracking -2.0% (annualized) thus far in Q3.

  • Inventory rebound should keep GDP positive in Q3.

  • Core deflator up 0.2% m/m and 2.6% y/y.


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2008-09-26 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q F)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

 
Growth lower than expected, but still ok.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still above recession levels, but still not looking that healthy.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.1%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Nominal GDP falling, but not yet to previous recession levels.

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GDP Price Index (2Q F)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

 
A little better than expected, but this series doen’t carry much weight.

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GDP ALLX (2Q F)

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
A bit higher than expected, and the Fed does watch this one closely. They want it under 2%.

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Personal Consumption (2Q F)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and not moving much off the bottom, which are at recession type levels.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q F)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q F)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Sep F)

Survey 70.8
Actual 70.3
Prior 73.1
Revised n/a

 
Less than expected but looks to have perked up some.

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1 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
Welcome news for the Fed. Follows gasoline prices pretty closely.

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5 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Also nice to see that coming down.

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Univ. of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Sep F)


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2008-08-28 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q P)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 3.3%
Prior 1.9% (2Q P); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized (2Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (2Q P)

Survey 1.1%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption (2Q P)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.5% (2QP); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1% (2Q P); 2.3% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 23)

Survey 425K
Actual 425K
Prior 432K
Revised 435K

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

Survey 3390K
Actual 3423K
Prior 3362K
Revised 3359K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 22)


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2008-07-31 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.

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GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.

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GDP ALLX (2Q A)

From Cesar:

GDP:

  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP

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Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)

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Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)


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2008-06-26 Daily US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q F)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

As expected.  Weak but no recession.

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Personal Consumption (1Q F)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.0%
Revised n/a

A touch better than expected with further improvement in Q2 still expected.

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GDP Price Index (1Q F)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected.

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

More than a bit worse than expected.
 
GDP better than expected, and inflation worse than expected was reflected in the Fed statement, but not in Fed action.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 21)

Survey 375K
Actual 384K
Prior 381K
Revised 384K

Unchanged from the previous week’s report that was revised up some.  Still in the new range.

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Continiuing Jobless Claims (Jun 14)

Survey 3105K
Actual 3139K
Prior 3060K
Revised 3057K

A little worse than expected, prior week revised down marginally.

Weak, but no recession yet.

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Help Wanted Index (May)

Survey 19
Actual 17
Prior 19
Revised 18

All evidence shows labor markets still soft.

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Existing Home Sales (May)

Survey 4.95M
Actual 4.99M
Prior 4.89M
Revised n/a

Continuing signs of a bottom.
 
Levels are too low given demographics and should recover substantially even with a weak market.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 2.0%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected.

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Existing Home Sales Median Price (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 208.6
Prior 201.2
Revised n/a

The upturn in prices wasn’t even reported by the mainstream press while the downturns were sensationalized.

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Existing Home Sales Median Price YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.3%
Prior -8.5%
Revised n/a

Year over year price declines are far less than the case-shiller index which reports only on the largest metro areas.  OFHEO prices declined even less year over year.  Again, the mainstream media doesn’t report this and continues to repeat case-shiller numbers.

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Existing Home Sales Inventories (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.485
Prior 4.549
Revised n/a

I thought the last spike up was suspect- might have had something to do with foreclosures hitting the list- and may now be turning down as well, following the actual numbers of new homes for sale which has been falling rapidly.

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