2008-03-28 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 28, 2008 @ 9:11 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Feb)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	n/a

This is what supports the economy longer term and cushions downturns.

Personal Spending (Feb)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Down some, but with personal income remaining firm spending is sustained over the medium term.

PCE Deflator YoY (Feb)

Survey	3.5%
Actual	3.4%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	3.5%

Not good, and more price increases are in the pipeline.

PCE Core YoY (Feb)

Survey	2.1%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	2.0%

Back to the high end of the Fed’s comfort zone, but with higher prices in the pipeline, it’s looking to move higher.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Mar F)

Survey	70.0
Actual	69.5
Prior	70.5
Revised	n/a

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

Inflation Expectations

Current conditions up, expectations down. Sound familiar?

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 31, 2008 @ 11:36 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Dec)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Personal Income TABLE

A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.

Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	1.1%
Revised	1.0%

Personal Spending TABLE

OK number after last month’s large increase.

Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.

PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey	3.5%
Actual	3.5%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.

PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

Actual was 0.23%

PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)

Survey	319K
Actual	375K
Prior	301K
Revised	306K

Big jump up as expected by Karim.

4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).

Not yet the stuff of recession.

Continuing Claims (Jan 19)

Survey	2685K
Actual	2716K
Prior	2672K
Revised	2669K

Moved back up some.

Also not yet the stuff of recession.

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.8%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Employment Cost Index YoY

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.3%
Prior	3.3%
Revised	n/a

As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey	52.0
Actual	51.5
Prior	56.6
Revised	56.4

Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.

Help Wanted Index (Dec)

Survey	20
Actual	22
Prior	21
Revised	n/a

Very small uptick from a very low level.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	58.0
Prior	62.0
Revised	n/a

No recession here, yet.

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2007-12-21 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 21, 2007 @ 11:24 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Nov)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	0.4%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

OK number.

Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey	0.7%
Actual	1.1%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	0.4%

Nice bounce back from a low number also revised up. Makes the two month average about 0.75%. This will cause further upward revisions of Q4 GDP.

PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey	3.4%
Actual	3.6%
Prior	2.9%
Revised	3.0%

Back to my favorite quote from September, ‘If the fed doesn’t care about inflation, why should I?’

Wonder what it takes for the fed to care?

PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey	2.0%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	1.9%
Revised	2.0%

Core at or though fed’s upper bound.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey	74.5
Actual	75.5
Prior	74.5
Revised	2.0%

People still watching CNBC.

2007-12-21 Inflation Expecations - 1 Year Ahead

Inflation Expectations – 1 Year Ahead

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.4%
Prior	3.2%
Revised	n/a

One of the fed’s indicators – don’t like this action as they think once it elevates it’s too late.

2007-12-21 Inflation Expecations - 5 Years Ahead

Inflation Expectations – 5 Years Ahead

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.1%
Prior	2.8%
Revised	n/a

As above – once it elevates it’s too late.

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2007-11-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 5:24 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Summary:Nothing particularly alarming regarding balance of risks.Personal income and spending lower than expected. Questions are whether exports will continue pick up and support gdp, and whether this is weaker than the Fed’s Oct 31 projection. Deflator and core pce also up a touch, and year over year deflator heading north. As Karim indicated, core is inside the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ but moving slightly towards the upper bound.Chicago PMI up, prices paid up 74.7 to 76.2Milwaukee pmi down, prices paid up to 61 from 56Lots of month end ‘evening up’ in the markets that might be reversed Monday. Month end effects should be over by Tuesday.