![2008-01-31 Personal Income](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-personal-income.gif)
Personal Income (Dec)
Survey |
0.4% |
Actual |
0.5% |
Prior |
0.4% |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-01-31 Personal Income TABLE](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-personal-income-table.gif)
Personal Income TABLE
A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.
![2008-01-31 Personal Spending](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-personal-spending.gif)
Personal Spending (Dec)
Survey |
0.1% |
Actual |
0.2% |
Prior |
1.1% |
Revised |
1.0% |
![2008-01-31 Personal Spending TABLE(1)](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-personal-spending-table1.gif)
![2008-01-31 Personal Spending TABLE(2)](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-personal-spending-table2.gif)
Personal Spending TABLE
OK number after last month’s large increase.
Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.
![2008-01-31 PCE Deflator YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-pce-deflator-yoy.gif)
PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)
Survey |
3.5% |
Actual |
3.5% |
Prior |
3.6% |
Revised |
n/a |
Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.
![small-2008-01-31-pce-core-mom.gif](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-pce-core-mom.gif)
PCE Core MoM (Dec)
Survey |
0.2% |
Actual |
0.2% |
Prior |
0.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
Actual was 0.23%
![2008-01-31 PCE Core YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-pce-core-yoy.gif)
PCE Core YoY (Dec)
Survey |
2.2% |
Actual |
2.2% |
Prior |
2.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.
![2008-01-31 Initial Jobless Claims](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-initial-jobless-claims.gif)
Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)
Survey |
319K |
Actual |
375K |
Prior |
301K |
Revised |
306K |
Big jump up as expected by Karim.
4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).
Not yet the stuff of recession.
![2008-01-31 Continuing Claims](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-continuing-claims.gif)
Continuing Claims (Jan 19)
Survey |
2685K |
Actual |
2716K |
Prior |
2672K |
Revised |
2669K |
Moved back up some.
Also not yet the stuff of recession.
![2008-01-31 Employment Cost Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-employment-cost-index.gif)
Employment Cost Index (4Q)
Survey |
0.8% |
Actual |
0.8% |
Prior |
0.8% |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-01-31 Employment Cost Index YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-employment-cost-index-yoy.gif)
Employment Cost Index YoY
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
3.3% |
Prior |
3.3% |
Revised |
n/a |
As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.
![2008-01-31 Chicago Purchasing Manager](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-chicago-purchasing-manager.gif)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)
Survey |
52.0 |
Actual |
51.5 |
Prior |
56.6 |
Revised |
56.4 |
Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.
![2008-01-31 Help Wanted Index](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-help-wanted-index.gif)
Help Wanted Index (Dec)
Survey |
20 |
Actual |
22 |
Prior |
21 |
Revised |
n/a |
Very small uptick from a very low level.
![2008-01-31 NAPM-Milwaukee](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/01/small-2008-01-31-napm-milwaukee.gif)
NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
58.0 |
Prior |
62.0 |
Revised |
n/a |
No recession here, yet.
♥