![2008-02-29 Personal Income YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-income-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Income YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
4.9 |
Prior |
5.6 |
Revised |
n/a |
Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.
This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.
![2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expense Nom$ YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-consumption-expense-nom-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
5.5% |
Prior |
5.8% |
Revised |
n/a |
Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.
![2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Chain YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-consumption-expenditures-chain-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
1.8% |
Prior |
2.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Price YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-consumption-expenditures-price-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
3.7% |
Prior |
3.6% |
Revised |
n/a |
This is problematic for the Fed.
![2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expenditures Core YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-consumption-expenditures-core-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
2.2% |
Prior |
2.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.
![2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Market Based YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-consumption-market-based-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
3.7% |
Prior |
3.6% |
Revised |
n/a |
As above, this is way too high for comfort.
![2008-02-29 Personal Consumption Expendatures Market Based Core YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-personal-consumption-expendatures-market-based-core-yoy-small.gif)
Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
1.9% |
Prior |
2.0% |
Revised |
n/a |
Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.
![2008-02-29 PCE Core YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-pce-core-yoy-small.gif)
PCE Core YoY (Jan)
Survey |
2.2% |
Actual |
2.2% |
Prior |
2.2% |
Revised |
n/a |
As above.
![2008-02-29 Chicago Purchasing Manager](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-chicago-purchasing-manager-small.gif)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)
Survey |
49.5 |
Actual |
44.5 |
Prior |
51.5 |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-02-29 Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/03/2008-02-29-chicago-purchasing-manager-table-small.gif)
Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE
Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.
New orders up as well.
![2008-02-29 U. of Michigan Confidence](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-u-of-michigan-confidence-small.gif)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)
Survey |
70.0 |
Actual |
70.8 |
Prior |
69.6 |
Revised |
n/a |
![2008-02-29 U of Michigan Confidence TABLE](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/03/2008-02-29-u-of-michican-confidence-table-small.gif)
U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE
While better than expected, does not look good.
And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.
![2008-02-29 NAPM Milwaukee](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/02/2008-02-29-napm-milwaukee-small.gif)
NAPM-Milwaukee (Feb)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
53.0 |
Prior |
58.0 |
Revised |
n/a |
Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..