Tag Archives: Nonfarm Productivity

productivity up 9.5%

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Lower labor costs for the same sales (top lines were relatively flat) mean revenue is being shifted from compensation to profits, which carry a much lower propensity to consume than wages.

This reduces aggregate demand, which is a good thing, as it means, for example, we can cut taxes to sustain incomes, sales, output, and employment.

Unfortunately, our leaders don’t understand the monetary system and take no constructive action in the name of ‘fiscal responsibility,’ while the main stream forecasts project unemployment to linger around the 10% level for an extended period of time:

The Labor Department said non-farm productivity surged at a 9.5 percent annual rate, the quickest pace since the third quarter of 2003. Productivity grew at a 6.9 percent pace in the April-June period.

Hours worked fell at a 5 percent rate in the third quarter, the Labor Department said. Unit labor costs, a gauge of inflation and profit pressures closely watched by the Federal Reserve, fell 5.2 percent after declining 6.1 percent in the second quarter. Analysts had expected unit labor costs to fall 4 percent in the third quarter. Compensation per hour rose at a 3.8 percent pace and, adjusted for inflation, was up 0.2 percent.

Compared with the July-September quarter of 2008, non-farm productivity rose at a 4.3 percent rate. Unit labor costs fell 3.6 percent year-on-year.


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2009-05-07 USER

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (1Q P)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.6%

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (1Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (1Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (1Q P)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 3.3%
Prior 5.7%
Revised n/a

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (1Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 2)

Survey 635K
Actual 601K
Prior 631K
Revised 635K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 25)

Survey 6350K
Actual 6351K
Prior 6271K
Revised 6295K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (May 2)


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2009-02-05 USER

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 1.5%

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (4Q)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (4Q)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (4Q)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.8%
Revised 2.6%

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (4Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 31)

Survey 580K
Actual 626K
Prior 588K
Revised 591K

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Continuing Claims (Jan 24)

Survey 4795K
Actual 4788K
Prior 4776K
Revised 4768K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 31)

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Factory Orders YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -13.8%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Dec)

Survey -3.1%
Actual -3.9%
Prior -4.6%
Revised -6.5%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Dec)


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2008-11-06 USER

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 4.3%
Revised 3.6%

 
Better than expected but slipping a bit.

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (3Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (3Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 3.0%
Actual 3.6%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -0.1%

 
Worse than expected but still reasonable.

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (3Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1)

Survey 477K
Actual 481K
Prior 479K
Revised 485K

 
About at recession levels.

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Continuing Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 3743K
Actual 3843K
Prior 3715K
Revised 3721K

 
Also looking like recession levels.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 1)

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 4k to 481k, but prior week revised up 6k to 485k (4wk avg 477k)
    Real story is latest jump in continuing claims, from 3721k to 3843k (4wk avg 3754k)


  • Higher continuing claims tied to longer duration of unemployment and in turn lower wage pressures


  • Now look for payrolls to exceed -300k tomorrow; would be consistent with across the board weaker-than-expected data for past month.


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2008-09-04 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Initial claims jump 16k to 445k (4wk avg 439k from 444k)
  • Continuing claims rise 15k to 3435k (4wk avg 3400k from 3367k)
  • A correction from the impact of the extended benefits program would have seen initial claims drop to the 400-425k range (as was expected)
  • This increase and a new cycle high in continuing claims suggests some renewed labor market weakness and adds to downside risks to upcoming NFP reports
  • Unit labor costs for Q2 revised from unch to -0.5% and productivity from 3.5% to 4.3%. These numbers are volatile, but at the margin, the Fed will welcome these revisions as they relate to its inflation outlook.

Yes, and they also show that a share of the job losses were attributable to ‘efficiency gains’ rather than macro weakness (though the two are related) meaning economic potential is firming. This is the ‘classic benefit’ of a slowdown.

  • ISM Non-Mfg headline continues to meander around 50 (rises from 49.5 to 50.6)
  • Prices paid drops from 80.8 to 72.9; employment weakens further, from 47.1 to 45.4
  • Orders up 2 points, export orders down 3pts
  • Labor department official states claims data this week were a ‘clean read’, but that next week’s number will be effected by the Gustav evacuation
  • Trichet says Euro economy in an ‘episode of weak activity’ and that M3 data is overstating monetary expansion as credit growth is moderating. States ECB especially focused on wage growth, but when asked if he agrees with Board member Stark on seeing ‘broad-based’ second round effects, says only seeing ‘some second round effects’. Seems like ECB wants to see weak growth become entrenched and wage demands to moderate before entertaining rate cuts-i.e., unemployment needs to rise further.

US Economic Releases

ADP Employment Change (Aug)

Survey -30K
Actual -33K
Prior 9K
Revised 1K

 
Continuing its long, lazy trend lower, but not recession levels yet.

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ADP Employment Change MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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ADP TABLE 1 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 2 (Aug)

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ADP TABLE 3 (Aug)

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ADP ALLX (Aug)

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Very high number. Shows the higher GDP is being sustained by fewer workers.

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.5%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Nice downtick. Domestic labor costs aren’t pushing up prices yet.

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Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q F)

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Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q F)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 30)

Survey 420K
Actual 444K
Prior 425K
Revised 429K

 
Keeps working its way higher after the extended benefit program was initiated, though the 4 week average is a touch lower.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 29)

Survey 3423K
Actual 3435K
Prior 3423K
Revised 3429K

 
Not looking good and also not sure how much this is influenced by the extended benefits program.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 30)

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Aug)

Survey 49.5
Actual 50.6
Prior 49.5
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

 
Employment and export orders down some, while prices paid still very high.

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ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.5%

 
Not great, but not falling apart.

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ICSC TABLE (Aug)


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2008-08-08 US Economic Releases

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

GDP gains are coming from productivity as hours worked decline.

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (2Q P)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (2Q P)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 1.4%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised 2.5%

Better than expected due to productivity increases.

If the USD stays strong, it could help import prices moderate as well.

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (2Q P)

Karim writes:

Productivity based on hours, not employment; so we should see productivity in q2 of about 3.5% vs gdp of 1.9%.

Right, makes sense. More output from fewer workers and fewer hours is keeping GDP positive (and that much demand, which includes demand for exports, is supporting prices) even as labor markets soften.

Same as in prior 2 qtrs as hours were cut more aggressively than employment>Q4 gdp was -0.2% and productivity was +0.9%: Q1 GDP of 0.9% and productivity of 2.4%

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.9%

Higher than expected. Might mean upward Q2 GDP revision.

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 9.5%
Prior 8.8%
Revised n/a

With all the talk of weakness, increased inventories are most likely due to increased order flow.

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Jun)


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2008-06-04 US Economic Release

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2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.6
Prior 352.7
Revised n/a

Not looking good, as the ‘old consumption economy’ – cars, houses, etc.- gives way to the new export economy with the allocations coming via ‘price’ as higher food/fuel prices take away domestic spending power and the foreign sector scrambles to spend it’s now unwanted multi $trillion hoard on US goods, services, and domestic assets, and keeps GDP muddling through.

First, probably fighting strong seasonals.

Second, purchase applications fall off doesn’t jibe with recent housing data and confidence numbers that have been rebounding.

Third, mortgage bankers could be continuing to lose market share to banks and other direct lenders as secondary markets remain problematic.

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2008-06-04 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 1496.1
Prior 2013.5
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 45.6%
Prior 27.4%
Revised n/a

Moving up. This hasn’t been much of an economic indicator, but employment is a lagging indicator and it makes sense for it to keep getting worse for a couple of quarters or so past the bottom of the cycle.

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2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Region TABLE

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2008-06-04 Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

Challenger Job Cuts by Industry TABLE

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2008-06-04 US Hiring

Hiring

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2008-06-04 ADP Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (May)

Survey -30K
Actual 40K
Prior 10K
Revised 13K

This report is private sector only. Government employment may be ticking up as we approach the election, as spending delayed from 2007 kicks in.

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2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity QoQ

Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Nonfarm Productivity YoY

Nonfarm Productivity YoY (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs QoQ

Unit Labor Costs QoQ (1Q F)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 Unit Labor Costs per Unit

Unit Labor Cost per Unit (1Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 117.9
Prior 118.0
Revised n/a

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2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (May)

Survey 51.0
Actual 51.7
Prior 52.0
Revised n/a

Another better than expected report. Clearly above recession levels, and supporting forecasts for higher GDP this quarter.

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2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Most categories noticeably stronger. Employment down some, but the average of the last few months is rising. New Exports Orders back up as well.

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2008-06-04 ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices Paid

Survey n/a
Actual 77.0
Prior 72.1
Revised n/a

This is getting ‘out of control’ from the FOMC’s point of view.


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2008-05-07 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-07 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (May 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 381.3
Prior 340.1
Revised n/a

Seems to have at least stabilized.

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2008-05-07 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (May 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2773.8
Prior 1905.2
Revised n/a

Doing okay.

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2008-05-07 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (1Q P)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected. Usually rises with output.

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2008-05-07 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (1Q P)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.8%

Better then expected, prior revised up. This series isn’t doing much.

Look to imports from China for a handle on unit labor costs as well.

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2008-05-07 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.9%
Revised -2.8%

Still falling some, seasonally adjusted, and with actual inventory going down there is less to buy.

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2008-05-07 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (Mar)

Survey $6.0B
Actual $15.3B
Prior $5.2B
Revised $6.5B

Volatile series.
Seems to be holding up as incomes hold up.

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2008-03-05 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-05 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior -19.2%
Revised n/a

Refi’s bouncing back some.

2008-03-05 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 363.1
Prior 358.1
Revised n/a

This seems to be drifting lower with time.

Might be loss of market share to banks.

2008-03-05 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI (Feb 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 2569.0
Prior 2458.9
Revised n/a

As above.

2008-03-05 Challenger Job Cuts YoY

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.2%
Prior 19.1%
Revised n/a

Doesn’t show weakness in the labor markets other numbers show.

Doesn’t get much attention.

2008-03-05 APD Employment Change

ADP Employment Change (Feb)

Survey 18K
Actual -23K
Prior 130K
Revised 119K

Drifting lower over time.  May indicate payrolls are going to be in the 25,000 range.  On Friday the January number could be revised up and a low number reported for February.  This happened with the February report – December revised up quite a bit and January reported down.

2008-03-05 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity (4Q F)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

Seems to go with GDP.

2008-03-05 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

These are now moving up to more nearly match import prices, which functionally are unit labor costs as well as we’ve outsourced labor intensive content.

The Fed watches this closely as when it moves up the inflation cat is out of the bag.

2008-03-05 Factory Orders

Factory Orders (Jan)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 2.3%
Revised 2.0%

As expected,  seems to be in a range.

2008-03-05 ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (Feb)

Survey 47.3
Actual 49.3
Prior 44.6
Revised n/a

Low, but a bounce from last month, as I expected then.  Weak but not recession levels, and prices still too firm for comfort.

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2008-02-06 US Economic Releases

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2008-02-06 MBAVPRCH Index SA

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index SA (Feb 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 405.3
Prior 362.0
Revised n/a

Wild January, even considering all year ends are volatile for this series – now back over 400, roughly the 2006 average.

Will take a few more weeks to see where it’s been and where it may be going.

If it holds over 400 it’s one sign housing may not be getting any worse. A move back down to the 350 level signals another move down in housing.

2008-02-06 MBAVREFI Index SA

MBA Refinancing Index SA (Feb 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 5054.0
Prior 5103.6
Revised n/a

Cranking them out as fast as the remaining mortgage banking staff can handle them.

2008-02-06 Nonfarm Productivity

Nonfarm Productivity(4Q P)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 6.3%
Revised 6.0%

This means more output than expected for the same workforce.

2008-02-06 Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Costs (4Q P)

Survey 3.5%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -2.0%
Revised -1.9%

Goes hand in hand with productivity- looks like business has this under control – supports good Q4 profitability.

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