Tag Archives: New Home Sales

2008-07-25 US Economic Releases

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Durable Goods Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.3%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.0%
Revised 0.1%

Better than expected, partially because fiscal and government is kicking in harder than expected.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.3%
Prior -2.7%
Revised n/a

Still has turned up in a meaningful way, but moving away from recession levels.

When car sales normalize we’ll see a further boost.

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Durables Ex Transportation (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 2.0%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.5%

Headline numbers being held down by car sales.

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Durable Goods Orders ALLX (Jun)

Durables better than expected, likely due to companies taking advantage of new accelerated depreciation allowance

  • Capital goods orders ex-defense and aircraft up 1.4%
  • Defense orders up 30% in past 2mths, so production/shipments likely to improve for some manufacturers in coming months

    • Small appliances up as well. Seems some rebate checks went for down payments on appliances and home improvements.

    Electronics and consumer goods down.

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    U of Michigan Confidence (Jul F)

    Survey 56.4
    Actual 61.2
    Prior 56.6
    Revised n/a

    Better than expected and a possible bottom from a very low level.

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    U of Michigan Confidence ALLX (Jul F)

    Gas prices ‘stabilizing’ likely lead to the modest improvement in the Michigan survey and the ebbing of inflation expectations:

    • Headline confidence rose from 56.6 to 61.2

    Don’t underestimate the fiscal package!

    • 5-10yr inflation expectations fell from 3.4% to 3.2%

    One year steady at 5.1%.

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    Inflation Expectations 1yr Forward (Jul F)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 5.1%
    Prior 5.1%
    Revised n/a

    Two months over 5% is very troubling for the Fed. They see this as a direct cause of inflation.

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    Inflation Expectations 5yr Forward (Jul F)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 3.2%
    Prior 3.4%
    Revised n/a

    Down some but still way too high.

    The Fed wants this back to their long term target of something under 2.5%.

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    New Home Sales (Jun)

    Survey 503K
    Actual 530K
    Prior 512K
    Revised 533K

    Better than expected and last month revised up as well.

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    New Home Sales – Total for Sale (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 425K
    Prior 448K
    Revised n/a

    Sales can quickly be stifled by dwindling actual inventories.

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    New Home Sales MoM (Jun)

    Survey -1.8%
    Actual -0.6%
    Prior -2.5%
    Revised -1.7%

    Better than expected and from an upwardly revised May number.

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    New Home Sales YoY (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -33.2%
    Prior -37.8%
    Revised n/a

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    New Home Sales Median Price (Jun)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 230.9
    Prior 227.7
    Revised n/a

    The decline may be about over.

    Median prices are already rising from the lows.

    Watch for a shortage of new homes.

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    New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Jun)

    The three month average has turned higher.

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    New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Jun)

    • New home sales down 0.6% m/m and prices down 2% y/y

    But higher than expected at 530,000, and down from May because May was revised up to 533,000 from 512,000.

    Also, inventories down and prices up, and prices getting very close to being up year over year:

    New home sales fall but stronger than expected

    by Mark Felsenthal

    Sales of newly constructed U.S. single-family homes were stronger than expected in June, falling 0.6 percent to a 530,000 annual pace, a government report showed on Friday, providing a glimmer of hope for the beaten-down housing market.

    Economists polled by Reuters were expecting sales to slow to a 500,000 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate from a previously reported 512,000 pace in May. May’s sales rate was revised up to 533,000, the Commerce Department said.

    The inventory of homes available for sale shrank 5.3 percent to 426,000, the lowest since December 2004. The June sales pace put the supply of homes available for sale at 10 months’ worth.

    The median sales price rose to $230,900 from $227,700 from May, but was down 2 percent from a year earlier, the government said.


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2008-06-25 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.3
Prior -8.8%
Revised -8.7

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 333.4
Prior 360.2
Revised n/a

MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 1212.20
Prior 1378.60
Revised n/a

MBA Mortgage Application TABLE (Jun 20)

Purchase mortgage applications back at the low end of the new range, partially because mortgage bankers have lost market share, but housing remains very slow as well.

Durable Goods Orders (May)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.5%
Revised -1.0%

About as expected. Remains on the weak side, but not at recession levels as economy continues to muddle through.

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Durables Ex Transportation (May)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 2.5%
Revised 1.9%

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New Home Sales (May)

Survey 512K
Actual 512K
Prior 526K
Revised 525K

[comments]

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New Home Sales MoM (May)

Survey -2.7%
Actual -2.5%
Prior 3.3%
Revised 4.8%

A touch better than expected from a very low base.

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New Home Sales TABLE NSA (May)

[comments]

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Actual Number of Homes for Sale (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 453.00
Prior 461.00
Revised n/a

Lower than expected and working its way down nicely.

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FOMC Rate Decision (Jun 25)

Survey 2.00%
Actual 2.00%
Prior 2.00%
Revised n/a

They don’t consider inflation a problem yet.


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2008-05-27 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-27 S&P-CaseShiller Home Price Index

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 172.2
Prior 175.9
Revised 176.0

Still moving lower. The sample is the 20 largest metro areas which were the regions hit hardest by the speculative bulge.

Broader measures don’t show this kind of depreciation.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Mar)

Survey -14.2%
Actual -14.4%
Prior -12.7%
Revised n/a

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS US HPI

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 159.2
Prior 170.6
Revised 170.6

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 S&P-CS US HPI YoY%

S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI YoY% (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.1%
Prior -8.9%
Revised n/a

Same as above.

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2008-05-27 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Apr)

Survey 520K
Actual 526K
Prior 526K
Revised 509K

April up and higher than expected, March revised down some.

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2008-05-27 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey -1.1%
Actual 3.3%
Prior -8.5%
Revised -11.0%

As above.
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2008-05-27 Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence (May)

Survey 60.0
Actual 57.2
Prior 62.3
Revised 62.8

This is what an export economy looks like.

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2008-05-27 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (May)

Survey 1
Actual -3
Prior 0
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-05-27 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (May 25)

Survey -49
Actual -51
Prior -49
Revised n/a

As above. Consumers are getting squeezed by inflation, while exports boom.

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Bloomberg: New-Home Sales in the U.S. Rose 3.3% to 526,000 Pace

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Looking more like a bottom with every report. And most housing reports are ‘fighting’ some strong seasonals in the spring.

by Shobhana Chandra

(Bloomberg) New-home sales in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in April after readings for the prior month were revised down, signaling a worsening housing slump is still a threat to the economy.

Sales increased 3.3 percent to an annual pace of 526,000 from a 509,000 rate the prior month that was the lowest in 17 years, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. A separate report today showed home prices dropped in the first quarter by the most in at least 20 years.

A separate report today showed confidence among American consumers fell to the lowest level since October 1992 this month, raising the risk that households will rein in spending. The Conference Board’s confidence index declined more than forecast to 57.2.

They already have reined it in. That´s what an export economy looks like!

Economists’ Forecasts
Economists forecast new home sales would drop to a 520,000 annual pace from an originally reported 526,000 rate the prior month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 70 economists. Forecasts ranged from 500,000 to 570,000.

Purchases in April were the second lowest since October 1991. The March reading became the weakest since April 1991.

The median sales price last month increased 1.5 percent from April 2007 to $246,100. The figures can be influenced by changes in the mix of sales at the regional level. For that reason, economists prefer price measures that track the same house over time.

They never added that type of comment when prices fell. Still a lot of biased reporting out there.

One such gauge is the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Those figures, also reported today, showed house prices dropped 14.1 in the first quarter compared with the same period in 2007, the biggest decline since records began in 1988.

Much narrower market and different months

Sales of new homes were down 42 percent from April 2007, the biggest year-over-year decline since September 1981, the Commerce report showed.

Better to be 10 miles from hel_ and moving away from it than 100 miles away moving towards it.

Drop in Inventories
One bright spot is that inventories decreased. The supply of homes at the current sales rate dropped to 10.6 months’ worth from 11.1 months in March. The number of homes completed and waiting to be sold decreased to 181,000, the fewest since July.

Shortages looming as suggested in prior emails.

Purchases rose in three of four regions, led by a 42 percent jump in the Northeast. They increased 8.3 percent in the West and 5.8 percent in the Midwest. Purchases dropped 2.4 percent in the South.

Sales of previously owned homes, which account for about 85 percent of the market, fell 1 percent in April, and the supply of unsold properties reached a record, the National Association of Realtors said last week.

New-home purchases, which make up the remaining 15 percent of the market, are considered a timelier indicator because they are based on contract signings. Resales are calculated when a contract closes, usually a month or two later.

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2008-04-24 US Economic Releases

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  • Durable Goods Orders (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Continuing Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
  • Help Wanted Index (Released 10AM EST)
  • New Home Sales (Released 10AM EST)

From Karim:

  • Initial claims down from 375k (revised from 372k) to 342k
  • Continuing claims down from 2999k (revised from 2984k) to 2934k
  • DGO ex-aircraft and defense unchanged and down -2% and -1% in Jan/Feb
  • Claims have been volatile lately due to seasonals, but if they were to somehow stabilize at these levels, would still be in line with 0 employment growth
  • Q1 business capex component of GDP likely to be negative (has never been a recession where business capex did not also contract)

IFO down from 104.8 to 102.4 and retail component down from -0.9 to -10.0

ECB Member Bonello returns fire to Weber:

On the basis of the data we have at hand and the ECB’s rationale for monetary policy strategy it is very difficult to make an argument for higher interest rates.

2008-04-24 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual -0.3%
Prior -1.7%
Revised -0.9%

2008-04-24 Durable Goods Orders YoY

Durable Goods Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.2%
Prior 5.5%
Revised n/a

2008-04-24 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportation (Mar)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.5%
Prior -2.6%
Revised -2.1%

2008-04-24 Durable Goods TABLE

Durable Goods TABLE

Not all that bad. Two month total above expectations as Feb revised to a smaller drop.

Not at recession levels, yet.

And fiscal package kicking in soon.

2008-04-24 Initial Jobless Claims since 1998

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)

Survey 375K
Actual 342K
Prior 372K
Revised 375K

As suspected, from the jobless recovery to the full-employment recession.

Labor numbers soft but not all that bad. No where near recession levels, particularly population adjusted.

2008-04-24 Continuing Claims since 1998

Continuing Claims (Apr 12)

Survey 2990K
Actual 2934K
Prior 2984K
Revised 2999K

A lagging indicator, now following initial claims lower.

2008-04-24 Help Wanted Index

Help Wanted Index (Mar)

Survey 20
Actual 19
Prior 21
Revised n/a

Still going south, but a lagging indicator.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Mar)

Survey 580K
Actual 526K
Prior 590K
Revised 575K

Sales still heading south.
Might be because production and inventories are down, and also subject to revisions next month.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.7%
Actual -8.5%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -5.3%

2008-04-24 Number of New Home For Sales

Number of New Homes for Sale (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 468K
Prior 473K
Revised n/a

Actual inventories are down substantially, and remaining inventory is probably not highly desirable.

Looking for regional shortages in the spring/summer buying season to drive up prices.

2008-04-24 New Home Sales Median Price

New Home Sales Median Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual $227.6K
Prior $244.2K
Revised n/a

[comments]

2008-04-24 New Home Sales Average Price

New Home Sales Average Price (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual $292.2K
Prior $302.9K
Revised n/a

[comments]

2008-04-24 New Home Sales TABLE

New Home Sales TABLE

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2008-03-26 US Economic Releases

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2008-03-26 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Mar 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 403.7
Prior 365.0
Revised n/a

More evidence of a turn in housing:

Mortgage applications spike after Fed action

(Reuters) The Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage applications index jumped 48.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted 965.9 in the week ended March 21, its highest level since early February.

An 82 percent surge in refinancing applications overshadowed a 10.6 percent rise in home purchase loan requests, lifting total applications from the previous week, when home loan demand sank to the lowest since end-December.

On a four-week moving average, which adjusts for volatility, total applications rose 11.3 percent, while the purchase index gained 3.1 percent and the refinancing index climbed 18.3 percent.

Crude oil creeping back up. One thing the Fed knows for sure is demand is strong enough to support food and energy price increases at dangerous levels, and they have also commented that they are being passed through to core measures.

2008-03-26 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Mar 21)

Survey n/a
Actual 4255.1
Prior 2335.2
Revised n/a

Another good sign for ‘market functioning’.

2008-03-26 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Feb)

Survey 0.7%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -5.3%
Revised -4.7%

2008-03-26 Durable Goods YoY

Durable Goods YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.3%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

Looking weak month over month, but ok year over year.

Tax advantages that begin in May could be delaying reported investments.

2008-03-26 Durables Ex Transportation

Durables Ex Transportation (Feb)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -2.6%
Prior -1.6%
Revised -1.0%

2008-03-26 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Feb)

Survey 578K
Actual 590K
Prior 588K
Revised 601K

Looks like a possible bottom. Last month revised up and this month’s number a bit higher than last month’s original reported number.

2008-03-26 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.7%
Actual -1.8%
Prior -2.8%
Revised -1.6%

Not strong but, as above, not a continuing collapse

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New home sales

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Weak winter sales, but the absolute number of homes in inventory did go down again and is well off the highs.

A modest pickup in the sales rate will now translate into a larger drop in the number of months of inventory.

The median price is more a function of which category of houses are selling.

The first quarter is looking weak domestically. Whether GDP goes negative or not will be a function of export strength.

New Home Sales Take Biggest Fall in Nearly 13 Years

(Reuters) New U.S. single-family home sales fell 2.8 percent in January to the lowest rate in nearly 13 years while the median sales price slipped and the housing overstock shrank, according to a government report on Wednesday that delivered more grim news for the ailing housing sector.

AP
New home sales fell to an annual rate of 588,000 from an upwardly revised rate of 605,000 in December, the Commerce Department said.

Economists polled by Reuters were expecting January sales to fall to an annual rate of 600,000 from the December previously reported rate of 604,000.

In January, the median sales price for a new home fell 15.1 percent $216,000 from $254,400 a year ago.

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2008-02-27 US Economic Releases

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2008-02-27 MBAVPRCH

MBAVPRCH Index (Feb 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 358.2
Prior 357.6
Revised n/a

While still winter numbers, this is nonetheless looking very weak.

No way to tell if it’s more than loss of market share to banks, but other winter housing numbers are also weak.

2008-02-27 MBAVREFI

MBAVREFI Index (Feb 22)

Survey n/a
Actual 2458.9
Prior 3533.8
Revised n/a

Weak.

2008-02-27 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods Orders (Jan)

Survey -4/0%
Actual -5.3%
Prior 5.2%
Revised 4.4%

Weak.

2008-02-27 Durable Goods Orders

Durable Goods YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

Weak.

2008-02-27 Durables Ex Transporation

Durables Ex Transportation (Jan)

Survey -1.4%
Actual -1.6%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.0%

Weak.

2008-02-27 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Jan)

Survey 600K
Actual 588K
Prior 604K
Revised 605K

Weak.

2008-02-27 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -2.8%
Prior -4.7%
Revised -4.0%

Weak.

 Gives less reason to think January payrolls will be reversed very much higher.

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2008-01-28 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-28 New Home Sales

New Home Sales (Dec)

Survey 647K
Actual 604K
Prior 647K
Revised 634K

2009-01-28 New Home Sales MoM

New Home Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -4.7%
Prior -9.0%
Revised -12.6%

New Home Sales Average Price

Survey n/a
Actual 267.3
Prior 311.2
Revised n/a

2008-01-28 # Homes for Sale

# Homes for Sale

Survey n/a
Actual 495
Prior 502
Revised n/a

Home sales data continues to show weakness in the housing sector, which is now a much smaller percentage of GDP than it was a year ago.

I haven’t dug into the numbers to see is weather or other year end issues were a factor.

The December drop was a smaller percentage drop than November.

The lower average price is not quality adjusted.

Interesting that total homes for sale continues to drop, meaning actual inventories are being worked off. I have also seen regional anecdotal evidence of inventories of new homes being relatively tight.

This is consistent with housing starts being down by about 80,000 per month from previous levels and affordability is increasing.

2008-01-28 New Home Sales TABLE

Looks like homes for sale fell in every region.

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Friday mid day

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Food, crude, metals up, dollar down, inflation up all over the world, well beyond CB ‘comfort levels.’

Nov new home sales continue weak, though there are probably fewer ‘desirable’ new homes priced to sell, and with starts are down the new supply will continue to be low for a while.

The December Chicago pmi was a bit higher than expected, probably due to export industries. Price index still high though off a touch from Nov highs.

So again it’s high inflation and soft gdp.

Markets continue to think the Fed doesn’t care about any level of inflation and subsequently discount larger rate cuts.

Mainstream theory says if inflation is rising demand is too high, no matter what level of gdp that happens to corresponds with. And by accommodating the headline cpi increases with low real interest rates, the theory says the Fed is losing it’s fight (and maybe its desire) to keep a relative value story from turning into an inflation story. This is also hurting long term output and employment, as low inflation is a necessary condition for optimal growth and employment long term.

A January fed funds cut with food and energy still rising and the $ still low will likely bring out a torrent of mainstream objections.

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