IMF’s Lipsky Says Advanced-Nation Debt Risks Future Crisis as Yields Set to Rise

If any of you can forward this to John please do, thanks.
We went through all this from way back in his Salomon Bros. days- he should know better.

Comments below.

Lipsky Says Advanced-Nation Debt Risks Future Crisis as Yields Set to Rise

By Kevin Hamlin

March 20 (Bloomberg) — The mounting debt burden of the world’s most developed nations, set for a post-World War II record this year, is unsustainable and risks a future fiscal crisis, the International Monetary Fund’s John Lipsky said.

The average public debt ratio of advanced countries will exceed 100 percent of their gross domestic product this year for the first time since the war, Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director, said in a speech at a forum in Beijing today.

“The fiscal fallout of the recent crisis must be addressed before it begins to impede the recovery and create new risks,” said Lipsky. “The central challenge is to avert a potential future fiscal crisis, while at the same time creating jobs and supporting social cohesion.”

John, there is no potential future fiscal crisis for nations that issue their own non convertible/floating fx currencies.

Lipsky’s view clashes with Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who told the same forum yesterday that further fiscal stimulus is needed to aid growth, and that European nations focused on austerity have a “fairly pessimistic” outlook. At stake is sustaining the developed world’s rebound without a deepening in the debt crisis that’s engulfed nations from Greece to Ireland.

Long-term bond yields could climb 100 to 150 basis points, driven by the 25 percentage point rise in sovereign debt ratios since the global financial crisis and projected increases in borrowing in coming years, according to Lipsky.

So? You know there is no solvency issue. So do you forecast increased aggregate demand, a too small output gap and too low unemployment because of that? What sense does that make???

A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes closed at 3.27 percent last week, with comparable-maturity German debt at 3.19 percent and Japanese bonds at 1.21 percent.

‘Unsustainably Low’

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King reiterated his view at a conference four days ago in Beijing that “long-term real interest rates are unsustainably low” in the aftermath of policy makers’ unprecedented monetary stimulus during the 2008 financial crisis.

And Professor Geoffrey Harcourt’s star pupil, of all people. Shame shame shame. What’s his problem- unemployment might get too low???

Total U.S. public debt was more than $14 trillion at the end of 2010, a 72 percent increase during five years, while Japan’s debt is about double the size of its $5 trillion economy. The European turmoil has forced policy makers to create rescue packages for Ireland and Greece.

This is slipped in now for the second time by Kevin Hamlin, the author of this article, in a way that suggests its associated with Lipsky, King, etc. though he obviously didn’t get any direct quotes from them, or he would have used them. In any case, its an inexcusable error to push the analogy that Ireland and Greece, users of the euro and not the issuer (the ECB is the issuer) are analogous to currency issuers like the US, Japan, and the UK.

While interest payments on debt have remained stable at about 2.75 percentage points of GDP over the last three years, “higher deficits and debts together with normalizing economic growth sooner or later will lead to higher interest rates,” Lipsky said. The IMF estimates fiscal deficits for developed nations will average about 7 percent of GDP this year.

The cost of repaying debt would increase by 1.5 percentage points of GDP by 2014 even if interest rates rise only about 100 basis points, Lipsky said.

And so what then? Create excess aggregate demand that would overly shrink the output gap? If so, I don’t see it in any IMF forecast?

IMF studies show that each 10-percentage-point increase in the debt ratio slows annual real economic growth by around 0.15 percentage point because of the adverse effect on investment and lower productivity growth, according to Lipsky, a former chief economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

He should know those studies are not applicable to what he’s talking about.

China to keep buying Treasuries


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Clever, those Chinese. Now they get to keep their currency down to support their exports while claiming they are acting altruistically to support Obama.

Fortunately for us this keeps the imports flowing our way and supports our standard of living.

I don’t think we did this by design, but instead it falls under better lucky than good.

China to Keep Buying Treasuries, Top Official Says

by Dune Lawrence and Kevin Hamlin

Mar 23 (Bloomberg) — China’s top foreign-exchange official said the nation will keep buying Treasuries and endorsed the dollar’s global role, supporting the U.S. as the Obama administration increases spending to revive growth.


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Re: China’s new loans rise by record on stimulus efforts


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(email exchange)

Yes, they use lending from their state owned banks as a fiscal adjustment, by lending with little concern about getting paid back.

The question is how much is going to domestic demand and how much is going to subsidize exports. Probably mainly the latter.

>   
>   On Wed, Feb 11, 2009 at 11:48 PM, EDWARD wrote:
>   
>   The government mandates the lending, hence the concerns about loan
>   quality and writedowns…but the government is also providing money and
>   the rules are not necessarily the same as in the West…they may be
>   effective to a point as the net aggregate demand lost from failure in the
>   export sector needs to be replaced.
>   

China’s New Loans Rise by Record on Stimulus Efforts (Update 1)

by Kevin Hamlin and Luo Jin

Feb 12 (Bloomberg) — China’s new loans rose by a record in January and money supply expanded more quickly as the government implemented a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package to revive the world’s third-largest economy.


Banks extended 1.62 trillion yuan ($237 billion) of new local-currency loans and M2, the broadest measure of money supply, climbed 18.8 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than a year, the People’s Bank of China said today on its Web site.

China’s government has put pressure on banks to boost lending as the government rolls out a stimulus package to reverse the nation’s economic slide. Loan default risk is the biggest single threat to Chinese lenders, which face “a choppy 2009” because the potential for credit losses is rising, Fitch Ratings said last month.


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China back pushing its exports and ignoring Paulson


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Recession Opens U.S.-China Rift Paulson Talks Bridged

By Kevin Hamlin and Mark Drajem

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) — The global recession is re-exposing fissures in U.S.-China relations that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spent more than two years smoothing over.

Hoping Obama lets the world export their brains out to us and sustain domestic demand with fiscal policy.

Heightened tensions between China and the U.S. may worsen a contraction in world trade that already threatens to deepen and prolong the economic downturn. The friction comes as President- elect Barack Obama readies a two-year stimulus package worth as much as $850 billion

Hopefully more than that.

that will require the U.S. to borrow more than ever from China, the largest buyer of Treasury securities.

No sign of this ridiculous rhetoric changing yet.


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