Tag Archives: Import Price Index

2009-05-13 USER

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Karim writes:

Falling wage and salary income and rising savings rate continuing to take a toll on consumer spending.

Recent pick-up in gas prices also likely hurting discretionary spending.

  • April retail sales -0.4% and -0.5% ex-autos (expectations +0.2%)
  • March ex-autos revised from -0.9% to -1.2%
  • April, Ex-gas, -0.2%
  • April, Control group (feeds into PCE component of GDP), -0.3%
  • Need a very sharp rebound in May/June to prevent Q2 PCE from being negative due to combined March/April weakness.
  • Downside risks to Q2 GDP now as low as -5%

Import prices up 1.6%, -0.4% ex-petroleum and -0.5% from China

MBA Mortgage Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.6%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 265.70
Prior 264.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (May 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 4588.60
Prior 5169.30
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 38.72
Prior 21.20
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 0.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey -16.8%
Actual -16.3%
Prior -14.9%
Revised -15.3%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Apr)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Apr)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.1%
Prior -9.6%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.9%
Revised -1.2%

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Business Inventories MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.1%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.4%

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Business Inventories YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -3.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-04-09 USER

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Karim writes:

View on US EconomySharp drawdown of inventories to lead to restocking to lead to positive contribution to Q2 growth (which will still be negative overall). This has reduced ‘depression’ view in markets. But fact remains that consumer spending (70% of GDP) will remain dire for some time as: labor market remains in tatters, massive household wealth loss from equities/housing, and savings rate continues to climb.

Savings is being fed by the growing deficit spending so that consumption and savings can now be sustained, as some of the recent consumption numbers seem to indicate. So flat consumption (off a low base) and any inventory build (off an extremely low base) has a chance of getting q2 to modestly positive gdp.

Fiscal policy will help.

Yes, adding more than 6% to gdp in q2 from where it would have been other wise.
That’s historically been sufficient to restore gdp to positive territory and fuel the next credit boom.

But with massive output gap (-7% according to CBO last week), economy faces deflationary threat for period ahead (see Fed minutes from yesterday). Fed to keep rates near zero through at least 2010.

Europe

  • German industrial production -2.9% in Feb (after -6.1% in Jan) and Italian industrial production -3.5% in Feb
  • Looks like Q1 at least -6 to -7% for European GDP

Yes, they recover only well after we do.

Report today calling for another 25bp cut to 1% in May, plan to announce framework to buy corporates, no clarity if 1% to be the low for o/n money.

ECB also ‘low for long’: Austrian Governor Nowotny today stated he expects inflation to remain below the ECB’s 2% target over the ‘medium term’, giving the bank room to keep rates at historically low levels for ‘some time’.

Other labor markets weakening sharply as well:

  • Chief Economist of Economic and Social Institute (affiliated with Japanese Cabinet Office) stated unemployment in Japan could climb from 3milllion to 5million between July and December this year
  • Canadian employment down 61k in March (was down over 90k prior month) and unemployment rate up from 7.7% to 8.0%
  • Australian employment down 34k in March, with unemployment rate rising from 5.2% to 5.7%

    • Both looking to substantial fiscal support as well.

    Trade Balance (Feb)

    Survey -$36.0B
    Actual -$26.0B
    Prior -$36.0B
    Revised -$36.2B

     
    Karim writes:

    • Surprise was trade balance improving from -36.bn to -26bn (-44bn to -35bn in real terms)
    • But cause for improvement was 5.1% collapse in imports (not caused by energy); capital goods imports -6%; industrial supplies -9.3%; consumer goods -3.9% and not a sign of a healthy economy

    Right, imports should be picking back up with April numbers which won’t be out for quite a while as the additional fiscal adjustments pile on to the automatic stabilizers which already may have the deficit north of 6$ of gdp annually.

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    Exports MoM (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual 1.6%
    Prior -5.9%
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

  • Exports up 1.6% after 20% fall in prior 4mths

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    Imports MoM (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -5.1%
    Prior -6.7%
    Revised n/a

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    Exports YoY (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -16.9%
    Prior -16.5%
    Revised n/a

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    Imports YoY (Feb)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -28.8%
    Prior -22.8%
    Revised n/a

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    Trade Balance ALLX (Feb)

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    Import Price Index MoM (Mar)

    Survey 0.9%
    Actual 0.5%
    Prior -0.2%
    Revised -0.1%

     
    Karim writes:

  • Import prices up 0.5%, -0.7% ex-petroleum, and -0.6% from China.

    • Yes, any recovery will see crude prices pushing up the inflation indicators, however recent Saudi price cuts may indicate this could be delayed some.

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    Import Price Index YoY (Mar)

    Survey -14.7%
    Actual -14.9%
    Prior -12.8%
    Revised -12.7%

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    Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Mar)

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    Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Mar)

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 4)

    Survey 660K
    Actual 654K
    Prior 669K
    Revised 674K

     
    Karim writes:

  • Initial claims down 20k to 654k from upwardly revised prior week 674k; continuing claims continue to defy gravity, rising another 112k

    • While unemployment will continue to go up until nominal growth exceeds productivity increases, claims should start falling soon.

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    Continuing Claims (Mar 28)

    Survey 5800K
    Actual 5840K
    Prior 5728K
    Revised 5745K

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 4)


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2009-03-13 USER

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Trade Balance (Jan)

Survey -$38.0B
Actual -$36.0B
Prior -$39.9B
Revised n/a

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Exports MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.7%
Prior -5.8%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.7%
Prior -5.8%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -16.4%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -22.8%
Prior -15.4%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Jan)

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Import Price Index MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.2%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -1.2%

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Import Price Index YoY (Feb)

Survey -13.5%
Actual -12.8%
Prior -12.5%
Revised -12.5%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Feb)

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U of Michigan Confidence (Mar P)

Survey 55.0
Actual 56.6
Prior 56.3
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Mar P)


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2009-01-14 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 15.8%
Prior -8.2%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 295.80
Prior 344.20
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 9)

Survey n/a
Actual 7414.10
Prior 5904.50
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.72
Prior 6.07
Revised n/a

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Import Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey -5.3%
Actual -4.2%
Prior -6.7%
Revised -7.0%

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Import Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey -9.5%
Actual -9.3%
Prior -4.4%
Revised -5.4%

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Import Price Index ALLX1 (Dec)

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Import Price Index ALLX2 (Dec)

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.7%
Prior -1.8%
Revised -2.1%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.8%
Prior -8.2%
Revised n/a

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.4%
Actual -3.1%
Prior -1.6%
Revised -2.5%

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Business Inventories MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.7%
Prior -0.6%
Revised n/a

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Business Inventories YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 4.5%
Revised n/a


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2008-12-11 USER

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Trade Balance (Oct)

Survey -$53.5B
Actual -$57.2B
Prior -$56.5B
Revised -$56.6B

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Exports MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.2%
Prior -6.4%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.3%
Prior -5.7%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 8.6%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 6.8%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Oct)

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Import Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -4.9%
Actual -6.7%
Prior -4.7%
Revised -5.4%

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Import Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -4.4%
Prior 6.7%
Revised 5.7%

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Nov)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 6)

Survey 525K
Actual 573K
Prior 509K
Revised 515K

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Dec 15)

Survey 4100K
Actual 4429K
Prior 4087K
Revised 4091K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 6)


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2008-11-14 USER

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Import Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -4.4%
Actual -4.7%
Prior -3.0%
Revised -3.3%

 
Decelerating rapidly!

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Import Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey 8.2%
Actual 6.7%
Prior 14.5%
Revised 13.6%

 
Decelerating rapidly!

Karim writes:

Price pressures continue to fall sharply:

  • Import prices -4.7% m/m; -0.9% m/m ex-petroleum; yr/yr slows from 13.6% to 6.7%
  • Prices of industrial supplies -25.1% over past 3mths
  • Import prices from China -0.3% over past 2mths

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales (Oct)

Survey -2.1%
Actual -2.8%
Prior -1.2%
Revised -1.3%

 
This is a severe dropoff!

Karim writes:

Largest ever monthly drop in U.S. retail sales:

  • -2.8% m/m headline, -2.2% ex-autos, -1.5% ex-gas (prior mth headline revised from -1.2% to -1.3%)
  • 3mth annualized rate of change in headline now at -10.9%; yr/yr change -3.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1%
Prior -1.1%
Revised n/a

 
Looks very bad!

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Oct)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.2%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.5%

 
Same!

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Business Inventories MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.2%

 
Interesting drop- not recession like at all.

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Business Inventories YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.5%
Prior 6.3%
Revised n/a


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2008-10-10 USER

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Trade Balance (Aug)

Survey -$59.0B
Actual -$59.1B
Prior -$62.2B
Revised -$61.3B

 
If oil prices don’t rise and the foreign sector’s desire to accumulate $US stays down this will go a lot lower.

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Exports MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.0%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

 
World economy takes pause.

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Imports MoM (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.4%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

 
US economy pauses.

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Exports YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 15.9%
Prior 20.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still way high.

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Imports YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 13.4%
Prior 16.3%
Revised n/a

 
Still growing fast, but largely oil prices.

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Trade Balance ALLX (Aug)

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Import Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -2.8%
Actual -3.0%
Prior -3.7%
Revised -2.6%

 
Big drop.

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Import Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey 12.2%
Actual 14.5%
Prior 16.0%
Revised 18.7%

 
Still very high.

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Sep)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-11 USER

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Import Price Index MoM (Aug)

Survey -1.8%
Actual -3.7%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 0.2%

 
A welcome drop, thanks to Mike Masters!

Like the goldman drop of Aug 2006.

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Import Price Index YoY (Aug)

Survey 20.2%
Actual 16.0%
Prior 21.6%
Revised 20.1%

 
Lower than expected, though still up big year over year, which most influences core CPI.

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Aug)

 
Interesting details this month.

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Aug)

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Trade Balance (Jul)

Survey -$58.0B
Actual -$62.2B
Prior -$56.8B
Revised -$58.8B

 
Deficit higher than expected, due to July oil prices. This should more than reverse in August and, so far, September as sharply lower oil prices reduce the cost of imports.

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Exports MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3
Prior 3.7
Revised n/a

 
Still increasing, though at a slightly lower rate.

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Imports MoM (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.9
Prior 2.1
Revised n/a

 
This should drop next month with lower oil prices.

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Exports YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 20.1
Prior 19.9
Revised n/a

 
Still climbing rapidly. next month’s numbers will indicate effects of any global slowdown.

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Imports YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 16.8
Prior 13.7
Revised n/a

 
Still up big, falling oil prices should cut this down.

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Trade Balance ALLX (Jul)

 
Worth reading through these.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 6)

Survey 440K
Actual 445K
Prior 444K
Revised 451K

 
Holding steady at higher levels, and getting closer to recession levels.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 30)

Survey 3460K
Actual 3525K
Prior 3435K
Revised 3403K

 
This continues to move up and is getting closer to recession levels.

Not clear how much new extended benefit.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 30)

 
Interesting that claims were only 336,600 before the seasonal adjustment.
With seasonals this large improvement is more likely to show up when they reverse.

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Monthly Budget Statement (Aug)

Survey -$108.0B
Actual -$111.9B
Prior -$117.0B
Revised –

 
A bit higher than expected, receipts falling some, but nothing serious yet.

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Monthly Budget Statement ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-13 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 8)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.5%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

Muddling through on the low side as mortgage bankers lose market share to banks.

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MBA Purchasing Index (Aug 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 315.2
Prior 315.2
Revised n/a

Flat at low levels.

May do better as the seasonal adjustments get easier.

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MBA Refinancing Index (Aug 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 1074.6
Prior 1121.8
Revised n/a

Slowing, as bulk of resets are past and rates are doing nothing.

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MBA ALLX 1 (Aug 8)

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MBA ALLX 2 (Aug 8)

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 14.10
Prior 10.30
Revised n/a

Low, but improving.

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Import Price Index MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 2.6%
Revised 2.9%

Scary stuff if you are responsible for the value of the currency.

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Import Price Index YoY (Jul)

Survey 20.4%
Actual 21.6%
Prior 20.5%
Revised 21.1%

‘Inflation’ flooding in through the open window.

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Jul)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Jul)

Karim writes:

Import prices continue uptrend

  • Headline +1.7% m/m; ex-petroleum up 0.9% m/m

Yes and ex petro 8% year over year and still rising. And this takes time to pass through to core CPI.

  • Expect headline to be below core for the next few mths though

Yes, if gasoline stays down.

But rental vacancies took a small turn down, and owner equivalent rent already printed a 0.3%, and seems with starts so far down there has to be a shortage of actual units available to live in. Also, lots of catching up to do in other core measures, like medical and others which had some prints on the low side.

All of their costs are rising and push up prices with various lags.

And Russia has demonstrated they can do whatever they want and there’s nothing anyone can do about it.

Not good…

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Advance Retail Sales MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.3%

Down some as expected due to weak car sales, but prior month revised up.

Sometimes if people don’t buy cars they buy other things…

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.6%
Prior 3.4%
Revised n/a

Still looks to be moving off a bottom.

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Retail Sales Less Autos MoM (Jul)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.9%

Looks okay, a tenth below expectations but prior month revised up the same tenth.

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Retail Sales Less Autos YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 6.4%
Revised n/a

Looking reasonably firm.

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Advance Retail Sales ALLX (Jul)

On Wed, Aug 13, 2008 at 8:54 AM, Karim writes:

Retail sales generally weak but in line with expectations

  • Headline -0.1% m/m; ex-gas -0.2% m/m; ex-autos +0.4%; control group +0.3%
  • Rebate checks did trickle in through July so some help from there
  • Looks like real PCE off to flat start in Q3, perhaps explaining Fisher’s remark yesterday that ‘we will broach zero growth’ in the second half of the year

The FOMC now has a multi year history of underestimating GDP and inflation.

Seems with Q2 GDP now looking like 3% or more, and the first half therefore averaging maybe over 2%, and year over year gdp still pushing 3%, they would either adjust or downgrade their GDP forecasting model.

Same with their inflation forecasting model, as cpi moves through 5% and core elevates from levels not long ago forecast at not a lot more than half that.

Looking more and more like the real economy did bottom in Q4 2007, as private forecasters are now starting to project positive gdp for Q3 and Q4, and some for Q1 2009 as well.

And even if the saudis keep crude at current levels core cpi should continue to march higher for many more quarters as it all catches up to the shift from $20 crude to $100+ crude.

Yes, the financial sector continues to have issues, may severe, but blood is flowing around the clot as the real economy moves forward.

Housing starts peaked in the early 1970s at 2.6 million with only 215 million people and no secondary market or housing agencies- just a bunch of dumb s and l’s taking in deposits and making mortgages (is used to work at one back then).

Today with 50% more people we call 2 million units gangbusters.

The financial innovation is all predatory at the macro level, though at the micro level we’d grown dependent on it for sure.

Yes, US exports are reducing foreign GDP growth, but their are signs they are moving to support domestic demand with fiscal measures, including Japan, the UK, and even some talk from the eurozone, and even china announced lower inflation numbers to justify supporting growth.

And Saudi crude output shows no sign of world net supply going up. Current price action just some kind of massive ‘inventory adjustment’.

Yes, that can change but hasn’t yet.

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Business Inventories MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

3% Q2 GDP means more inventory is needed.

Also, this and previous inventory data for June higher than expected which means Q2 might be revised up that much more as very low inventory levels were estimated with the initial 1.9% release for Q2 GDP.

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Business Inventories YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.6%
Prior 5.3%
Revised n/a

Not the usual recession pattern.

The real sector seems well managed.

The financial sector is another story. They don’t count mbs inventory, for example, in this series…

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Business Inventories TABLE 1 (Jun)

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Business Inventories TABLE 2 (Jun)


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2008-06-12 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-12 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (May)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 2.4%

The Fed sees this as imported inflation pouring through the $ channel.

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Import Price Index X Petro (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 113.8
Prior 113.2
Revised n/a

Just in case you thought it was all oil.

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Import Price Index YoY (May)

Survey 17.2%
Actual 17.8%
Prior 15.4%
Revised 16.3%

The Fed sees this as a relentless assault on inflation expectations.

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Import Price Index X Petro YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.6%
Prior 6.6%
Revised n/a

[comments]

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Import Prices TABLE (May)

[comments]

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Advance Retail Sales (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.0%
Prior -0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Another better than expected report, and the previous month revised up as well.
If anything, the Fed sees the downside risks to growth are diminishing.
Rebate checks may be doing more than the Fed anticipated.

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Advance Retail Sales ALLX (May)

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Retail Sales Less Autos (May)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 1.0%

Seems to be broad based spending, though still moderate.

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Retail Sales X Auto, Building Materials, & Gas Stations (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 247.7
Prior 245.7
Revised n/a

[comments]

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Initial Jobless Claims (June 7)

Survey 370K
Actual 384K
Prior 357K
Revised 359K

Back up to the higher end of the ‘new’ range, as the 4 week average remains very steady.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (May 31)

Survey 3118K
Actual 3139K
Prior 3093K
Revised 3081K

The highest report of this cycle, but still far below recession levels. Also, with GDP prospects looking up, the Fed is getting concerned that unemployment isn’t high enough to keep inflation in check.

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Business Inventories (April)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Higher than expected and prior month revised up as well. At the point in the cycle this probably indicates inventory is being built to meet higher sales expectations, rather than inventory accumulating due to sales falling short. Inventories have been on the low side, and rebuilding them adds to GDP.

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