2008-05-13 US Economic Releases


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2008-05-13 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.8%
Revised 2.9%

Alarming to the Fed.

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2008-05-13 Import Price Index YoY

Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 15.0%
Actual 15.4%
Prior 14.8%
Revised 14.9%

Alarming to the Fed.

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2008-05-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Apr)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As expected, but composition surprised on the upside.

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2008-05-13 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.4%

Way better than expected, and prior revised higher as well.  Consumer alive and well.

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2008-05-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.5%

Another pleasant surprise that means Q1 GDP gets revised up a bit more.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (May 11)

Survey
Actual
Prior -46
Revised

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2008-01-11 US Economic Releases

2008-01-11 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Nov)

Survey -$59.5B
Actual -$63.1B
Prior -$57.8B
Revised n/a

Exports holding up. Oil price jump and vol in aircraft shipments.

December exports are key for the quarter.


2008-01-11 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 3.3%

Went down continuously for years, now going up.

And with outsourcing, this represents what was previously unit labor costs.


2008-01-11 Import Price Index YoY

Import Prices YoY (Dec)

Survey 10.5%
Actual 10.9%
Prior 11.4%
Revised 12.1%

Now supporting ‘inflation’ as above.


2008-01-11 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)

Survey $50.0B
Actual $48.3B
Prior $42.0B
Revised n/a

Receipts holding up. This is a pretty good coincident indicator of GDP.