2008-05-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 30, 2008 @ 3:08 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Released 9:30 EST)
Personal Spending (Released 9:30 EST)
PCE Deflator YoY (Released 9:30 EST)
PCE Core MoM (Released 9:30 EST)
PCE Core YoY (Released 9:30 EST)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 10:45 EST)
U. of Michigan Confidence (Released 11:00 EST)
NAPM-Milwaukee (Released 11:00 EST)

Personal Income (Apr)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.3%
Revised	0.4%

Soldiering on, and would have been higher if the Fed hadn’t cut rates as interest income is a meaningful factor.

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Personal Spending (Apr)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Also holding up and supporting GDP at muddling through levels.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Apr)

Survey	3.1%
Actual	3.2%
Prior	3.2%
Revised	n/a

Zig-zagging its way higher as crude prices rise and get passed through to everything else over time.

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PCE Core MoM (Apr)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

Taking a breather for a month or so.

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PCE Core YoY (Apr)

Survey	2.1%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	2.1%
Revised	n/a

In the 1970’s this moved through 3% as headline moved through 6%.Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Might be just a few months away.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (May)

Survey	48.5
Actual	49.1
Prior	48.3
Revised	n/a

Another indicator coming in better than expected and showing signs it has bottomed.

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U. of Michigan Confidence (May F)

Survey	59.5
Actual	59.8
Prior	59.5
Revised	n/a

Though a tad better than expected, still down and out due to rapidly rising inflation expectations.

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NAPM-Milwaukee

Survey	47.0
Actual	45.0
Prior	48.0
Revised	n/a

Not looking cheerful in Milwaukee.

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2008-04-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 30, 2008 @ 11:23 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

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MBAVPRCH Index (Released 7:00 EST)
MBAVREFI Index (Released 8:15 EST)
ADP Employment Change (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 8:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 8:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 8:30 EST)
Employment Cost Index (Released 8:30 EST)
Chicago Purchasing Manager (Released 9:45 EST)
NAPM-Milwaukee (Released 10:00 EST)
FOMC Rate Decision (Released 14:15 EST)

MBAVPRCH Index (Apr 25)

Survey	n/a
Actual	340.1
Prior	357.3
Revised	n/a

Definately looking weak. Winter is over, and tax rebates are in the mail.

MBAVREFI Index (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1905.2
Prior	2286.3
Revised	n/a

Settling down as well.

ADP Employment Change (Apr)

Survey	-60K
Actual	10K
Prior	8K
Revised	3K

Employment growth continues to slow over time but not yet signaling recession.

Non-farm payrolls muddling through as well.

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q A)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Still in the black, and my guess is it’s likely to be revised up with the March trade numbers that are due in in a couple of weeks.

Personal Consumption (1Q A)

Survey	0.7%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	2.3%
Revised	n/a

Also holding up better than expected, and rebates are on the way.

GDP Price Index (1Q A)

Survey	3.0%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.4%
Revised	n/a

Better than expected, still high, and with crude continuing to move up it’s going up as well.

Core PCE QoQ (1Q A)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.5%
Revised	n/a

The trend is up, and the Fed is monitoring it closely…

Employment Cost Index (1Q)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.7%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Looks under control, but not a brake on inflation.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Apr)

Survey	47.5%
Actual	48.3%
Prior	48.2%
Revised	n/a

A touch better than expected, but still trending lower.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Apr)

Survey	n/a
Actual	48.0
Prior	47.0
Revised	n/a

Also not down to recession levels yet.

FOMC Rate Decision (Apr 30)

Survey	2.00%
Actual	2.0%
Prior	2.25%
Revised	n/a

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2008-03-31 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 1, 2008 @ 7:14 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Mar)

Survey	46.0
Actual	48.2
Prior	44.5
Revised	n/a

Small bounce, but still trending down.

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Looks like a pretty good bounce back in key categories, and prices accelerating.

Production, employment, and prices paid all up – not a pleasant combination for the Fed.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	47.0
Prior	53.0
Revised	n/a

NAPM-Milwaukee TABLE

Prices, production, and employment up – more of the same for Fed to ponder.

2008-02-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 29, 2008 @ 10:02 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	4.9
Prior	5.6
Revised	n/a

Falling off some. Interest rates are partially responsible, as last I checked households are still net savers and have net interest income.

This is one reason I lean towards the view that lower interest rates tend to slow nominal growth, while higher interest rates support nominal growth.

Personal Expenditures Nominal$ YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	5.5%
Prior	5.8%
Revised	n/a

Nominal spending holding up. With our ‘new’ export economy, real spending gives way to exports, and GDP muddles through.

Personal Expenditures Chain YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.8%
Prior	2.1%
Revised	n/a

Personal Expenditure Price YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

This is problematic for the Fed.

Personal Expenditure Core YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

This is not easy for the Fed to watch, as they worked long and hard to bring it below 2% and back to their comfort zone of 1-2%. Now the concern is how hard it will be to bring down from even higher expected levels if they keep cutting rates.

Personal Consumption Market Based YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

As above, this is way too high for comfort.

Personal Consumption Market Based Core YoY (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	1.9%
Prior	2.0%
Revised	n/a

Also as above. Ok, but threatening to move higher and be very costly to bring back down.

PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

As above.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey	49.5
Actual	44.5
Prior	51.5
Revised	n/a

Chicago Purchasing Manager TABLE

Definitely not good, but like ISM, a survey that gets subjective responses, and price components remain high.

New orders up as well.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey	70.0
Actual	70.8
Prior	69.6
Revised	n/a

U. of Michigan Confidence TABLE

While better than expected, does not look good.

And one year inflation expectations are up to 3.6%.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey	n/a
Actual	53.0
Prior	58.0
Revised	n/a

Below expectations, but positive. Probably won’t get reported anywhere else..

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 31, 2008 @ 11:36 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Dec)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Personal Income TABLE

A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.

Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	1.1%
Revised	1.0%

Personal Spending TABLE

OK number after last month’s large increase.

Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.

PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey	3.5%
Actual	3.5%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.

PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

Actual was 0.23%

PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)

Survey	319K
Actual	375K
Prior	301K
Revised	306K

Big jump up as expected by Karim.

4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).

Not yet the stuff of recession.

Continuing Claims (Jan 19)

Survey	2685K
Actual	2716K
Prior	2672K
Revised	2669K

Moved back up some.

Also not yet the stuff of recession.

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.8%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Employment Cost Index YoY

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.3%
Prior	3.3%
Revised	n/a

As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey	52.0
Actual	51.5
Prior	56.6
Revised	56.4

Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.

Help Wanted Index (Dec)

Survey	20
Actual	22
Prior	21
Revised	n/a

Very small uptick from a very low level.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	58.0
Prior	62.0
Revised	n/a

No recession here, yet.

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2007-12-28 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 28, 2007 @ 4:23 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Dec)

Survey	51.7
Actual	56.6
Prior	52.9
Revised	n/a

Graph Looks Ok.

New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey	717K
Actual	647K
Prior	728K
Revised	711K

New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey	-1.6%
Actual	-9.0%
Prior	1.7%
Revised	1.7%

Still heading south, but less impact on GDP.

Also, fewer homes are being built.

Existing home sales Monday will mean more.

And during the winter months, seasonally, fewer months are built and sold; so, small absolute changes get magnified.

Help Wanted Index (Nov)

Survey	23
Actual	21
Prior	23
Revised	22

Working its way lower in line with a still strong, but softening labor market.

Most recent plunge seems to be related to CNBC gloom and doom talk that started in August.

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2007-11-30 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 5:24 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Summary:Nothing particularly alarming regarding balance of risks.Personal income and spending lower than expected. Questions are whether exports will continue pick up and support gdp, and whether this is weaker than the Fed’s Oct 31 projection. Deflator and core pce also up a touch, and year over year deflator heading north. As Karim indicated, core is inside the Fed’s ‘comfort zone’ but moving slightly towards the upper bound.Chicago PMI up, prices paid up 74.7 to 76.2Milwaukee pmi down, prices paid up to 61 from 56Lots of month end ‘evening up’ in the markets that might be reversed Monday. Month end effects should be over by Tuesday.