Tag Archives: Advance Retail Sales

2008-05-13 US Economic Releases

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2008-05-13 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (Apr)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.8%
Revised 2.9%

Alarming to the Fed.

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2008-05-13 Import Price Index YoY

Import Price Index YoY (Apr)

Survey 15.0%
Actual 15.4%
Prior 14.8%
Revised 14.9%

Alarming to the Fed.

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2008-05-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Apr)

Survey -0.2%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

As expected, but composition surprised on the upside.

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2008-05-13 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Apr)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.4%

Way better than expected, and prior revised higher as well.  Consumer alive and well.

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2008-05-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Mar)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.5%

Another pleasant surprise that means Q1 GDP gets revised up a bit more.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (May 11)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior -46
Revised –

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2008-04-14 US Economic Releases

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2008-04-14 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.2%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.4%

2008-04-14 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.1%

2008-04-14 Retail Sales YoY

Retail Sales YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

Down, but not yet at ‘traditional’ recession levels, particularly with exports as strong as they are.

2008-04-14 Retail Sales TABLE

Retail Sales TABLE

From Karim:

Recent trend intact and in line with confidence surveys:

Nominal gwth zero for Q1 consumer spending

  • March retail sales +0.2%, +0.1% ex-autos, 0.0% ex-gas, and +0.2% for control group (autos, gas, and building materials)

  • Building materials down 1.6% shows housing decline continues to exert impact

  • Following items also negative: electronics -0.4%, furniture -0.3%, clothing -0.5%. Food +0.4% and gas +1.1%, lead the way.

  • Despite minor upward revision to February, 3mth annualized rate of change 0.0% for overall retail sales and -2.2% for retail sales ex-gas.

2008-04-14 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Feb)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.9%

2008-04-14 Manufacturing & Trade Inventories YoY

Business Inventories YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 5.2
Prior 4.9
Revised n/a

Inventories still very low for a recession, if we are in one.

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2008-01-15 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-15 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey 7.1%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.2%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Inflation pressures remain alarming.

2007 highest inflation since the early 1980s, when inflation was on the way down.

Last hit this number on the way up was in the 1970s.

2008-01-15 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 1.2%
Revised 1.0%

Previous month still very high, two month average looks OK.

2008-01-15 Retail Sales YoY % Change

Retail Sales YoY % Change

Year over year numbers still modestly moving back up.

2008-01-15 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Dec)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 1.7%

Same as above.

2008-01-15 Empire Manufacturing

Empire Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 10.0
Actual 9.0
Prior 10.3
Revised 9.8

2008-01-15 Empire Manufacturing TABLE

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

A close look at the table shows prices still very strong.

2008-01-15 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Nov)

Survey 0.4%
Actual
Prior 0.1%
Revised

Chart looks OK – no excessive build.

Data not in, until 5PM EST..

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jan 13)

Survey -21
Actual
Prior -20
Revised

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2007-12-13 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-13 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.5%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Off the charts!

2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

Core moving up to headline?
That’s the fed’s worst nightmare now.

2007-12-13 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 6.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

Moving higher from an already too high number.

2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

The ‘anchor’ is slipping.

2007-12-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Consumer spent above energy price hikes.
Reserves the softness of the 0.2% spending number reported for October.

2007-12-13 Retail Sales Less Auto

Retail Sales Less Auto (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Very strong.

2007-12-13 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 335K
Actual 333K
Prior 338K
Revised 340K

Fed sees no slack in the labor markets.

2007-12-13 Continuing Claims

Counting Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 2599K
Actual 2639K
Prior 2599K
Revised 2601K

Some weakness here but overwhelmed by the other numbers being reported.

2007-12-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Oct)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

No obvious signals here.

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