2008-04-14 US Economic Releases

2008-04-14 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.2%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.4%

2008-04-14 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Mar)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.1%

2008-04-14 Retail Sales YoY

Retail Sales YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

Down, but not yet at ‘traditional’ recession levels, particularly with exports as strong as they are.

2008-04-14 Retail Sales TABLE

Retail Sales TABLE

From Karim:

Recent trend intact and in line with confidence surveys:

Nominal gwth zero for Q1 consumer spending

  • March retail sales +0.2%, +0.1% ex-autos, 0.0% ex-gas, and +0.2% for control group (autos, gas, and building materials)

  • Building materials down 1.6% shows housing decline continues to exert impact

  • Following items also negative: electronics -0.4%, furniture -0.3%, clothing -0.5%. Food +0.4% and gas +1.1%, lead the way.

  • Despite minor upward revision to February, 3mth annualized rate of change 0.0% for overall retail sales and -2.2% for retail sales ex-gas.

2008-04-14 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Feb)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.8%
Revised 0.9%

2008-04-14 Manufacturing & Trade Inventories YoY

Business Inventories YoY

Survey n/a
Actual 5.2
Prior 4.9
Revised n/a

Inventories still very low for a recession, if we are in one.