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He’s Got My Vote

Yesterday I was driving into New York City for a couple of meetings, and I heard an old friend from the business being interviewed by Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Radio.

I was amazed that Warren Mosler is running for Chris Dodd’s seat in the US Senate.

I thought his business interests in Florida and the US Virgin Islands would keep him from coming back to New England, but maybe he’s getting a jump on future northward migration from global warming.

Warren was a “blogger” on economic and market topics before there was blogging. Besides making the fastest sports car on the planet, he used to pen columns on the economy, the market, and government policy before we even used the internet to communicate.

His position papers and thought pieces that were very popular with professionals in the bond business throughout the late 80’s and 90’s, so I suppose it’s no surprise to find him sharing his thoughts on the web today.

I’ll be contacting the campaign to see how I can help.

hh

Bio

Howard Hill is a former Wall Street mortgage finance “rocket scientist” who invented a number of successful bond structuring techniques and analytic tools in the 1980’s and 1990’s. He headed research, finance, sales and trading groups at major Wall Street houses in the first half of his career, and became a customer for Wall Street in the new Millennium, analyzing and buying the same kinds of bonds he used to create. In addition to scores of mortgage deals, he structured the first securitized deals with apartment building loans, nursing home loans, mobile home park mortgages, computer leases, life insurance policyholder loans and Argentine mortgages.

DGO


Karim writes:

  • Weak number but has to be put into context of prior strength and m/m volatility
  • Orders less aircraft and defense (proxy for future private sector capex) down 8%; prior 2mths were up 3.6% and 4.7%
  • Weakness led by machinery orders; down 15% after up 15.4% prior 2mths
  • Shipments ex-aircraft and defense (proxy for current qtr capex) down 1.5% after 5 straight gains

Yes and upward revision for prior month as well

average car prices rising

Interesting data point. Perhaps a bit more evidence of the real wealth flowing from low to high income Americans:

The proof is emerging in dealer showrooms, where customers are buying more of Detroit’s cars and paying higher prices. In July, G.M., Ford and Chrysler sold their vehicles at an average price of $30,400 — $1,350 more than a year ago and higher than an overall industry gain of $1,100, according to the auto research Web site Edmunds.com.

EU Daily | European Industrial Orders Increase for Third Month

As previously discussed, it is possible their deficits already got high enough and the euro low enough to support very modest growth when market forces intervened to stop further fiscal expansion.

One problem now is proactive cuts can set them back if a combination of private sector credit and exports doesn’t expand at the same time.

And expanding exports remains problematic as that would tend to strengthen the currency to the point where net exports remain relatively low, and there is nothing they can do to keep the euro down should that happen.

Another problem is the market forces that are working to limit their fiscal expansion will continue to hamper their ability to fund themselves, especially with continuing talk of ‘restructuring’ which, functionally, is a form of default.

I’ve read the ECB is now buying about 10 billion euro/week of national govt bonds in the secondary markets and ‘learning and demonstrating’ that it is not inflationary, doesn’t cause a currency collapse, and poses no operational risk to the ECB as some feared it might. As they all become ‘comfortable’ with this look for market forces to ‘force’ them to expand the buying geometrically as happened with their funding of their banking system, where much of the ‘risk’ is now at the ECB as they accept collateral for funding from their member banks that no one else will.

Operationally the ECB can fund the whole shooting match. And if they can address the moral hazard the usual way via the growth and stability pact, this time with the leverage of being able to threaten to cut off ECB funding to punish non compliance.

This ‘solution’ of the ECB buying national govt debt in the secondary markets is conceptually/functionally nearly identical to my proposal of per capita distributions to the national govts by the ECB. The difference is my proposal would not have ‘rewarded bad behavior’ as theirs does, but that’s a relatively minor consideration for them at the moment, and if they continue doing what they are doing, they have ‘saved the euro,’ even though having the ECB fund all the banks and national govts wasn’t their original idea of how it all would end up.

European Industrial Orders Increase for Third Month

Trichet Says Current Situation Requires ‘Credible Measures’

ECB’s Trichet Says Italian Budget Cuts Go in ‘Right Direction’

German debt agency asked to issue bonds

Schäuble defends German austerity

German Government Won’t Turn to Tax Cuts Amid Deficit Reduction

S&P’s Kraemer Sees No ‘Serious Risk’ of Euro Break Up

Merkel Defends Spending Cuts, Gets Backing From Trichet

Germany Sees Jobless Numbers at Under 3 Million

French Consumer Spending Gains on Signs Job Market Is Improving

French Economy to Expand 1.4% This Year on Exports, Insee Says

Zapatero Says Not Cutting Deficit Would Raise Interest Costs

Subversion???!!!

Do we have enemies that are using our misunderstanding of our monetary system to undermine our actual national defense?

Could they be playing on our deficit phobia that’s taken hold to subdue us?

Or is it all just innocent fraud?

While there is certainly spending on waste and fraud in the military that should be addressed, weakening our actual defense capabilities we would otherwise elect to support is an entirely different matter.

What was a serious problem has just taken on a new dimension.

The deficit terrorists are now a force that’s subverting our real defense needs.

On Mon, Jun 14, 2010 at 5:37 AM, Project on Defense Alternatives wrote:

Dear Warren Mosler: I am pleased to announce publication of “Debt, Deficits, and Defense: A Way Forward” by the Sustainable Defense Task Force (members listed below). The report, which is now publically accessible, identifies options for $100 billion annual savings in the US defense budget for consideration by the recently appointed deficit reduction commission.


You can access the report on the home page of the Project on Defense Alternatives here: http://www.comw.org/pda


You will also find there a video of the briefing the Task Force held on 11 June in the US Capitol with over 100 congressional staffers, NGO leaders, and journalists in attendance.

The report concludes that, in order to find significant savings and put defense on a sustainable path, we must change how we produce military power and the ways in which we put it to use. It sees recent official reform efforts as a first step, but concludes that “they fall far short of what is possible and what is needed to put defense spending and defense strategy back in check.” The report offers suggestions for strengthening current reforms and argues that, in addition, we must rethink our military commitments and our defense strategy.


You can follow discussion of the report and other debates on US Defense Policy on the PDA Defense Strategy Review page, here http://www.comw.org/wordpress/dsr/


Thanks, Carl Conetta and Charles Knight – best contact: pda@comw.org

Sustainable Defense Task Force

– Carl Conetta, Project on Defense Alternatives
– Benjamin H Friedman, Cato Institute
– William D Hartung, New America Foundation
– Christopher Hellman, National Priorities Project
– Heather Hurlburt, National Security Network
– Charles Knight, Project on Defense Alternatives
– Lawrence J Korb, Center for American Progress
– Paul Kawika Martin, Peace Action
– Laicie Olson, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
– Miriam Pemberton, Institute for Policy Studies
– Laura Peterson, Taxpayers for Common Sense
– Prasannan Parthasarathi, Boston College
– Christopher Preble, Cato Institute
– Winslow Wheeler, Center for Defense Information

Bloomberg- Millionaires’ Ranks Grow 14%

govt deficits = ‘non govt’ savings:

The recovery in wealth last year was a result of resurgent financial markets and increased savings, the report said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 20 percent in 2009 and the U.S. savings rate averaged 4.2 percent compared with 2.6 percent a year earlier.

>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Fri, Jun 11, 2010 at 3:57 AM, wrote:
>   
>   What’s interesting about this to me is Slovakia. The Capital, Bratislava,
>   is 45 minutes from Vienna by car, and they’re third on the list! Ever
>   hear bad things about Slovakia? FLAT TAX of 19 percent for several years
>   now and more and more industry growing there. Great restaurants, clubs,
>   and more so quality of life has greatly increased. Magna has several
>   facilities there as do VW etc etc.
>   

Yes, it’s a ‘race to the bottom’ with whoever has the lowest taxes winning business from other EU nations, eventually forcing them to do same.

This is what’s happened to US States, with the States with the lowest tax rates and benefits getting businesses from other States. The problem is that means that States have to spend the least on education and public services to win business, in a race to the bottom.

It’s a fallacy of composition in action. If you stand up at a football game you see better, but soon everyone is standing up so nothing’s gained and no one can sit down (in the case of the football game at least until the front row sits down).

One of the public purposes of the federal govt is to set min standards that prevent races to the bottom

World’s Millionaires Increase by 14%, Boston Consulting Reports

By Alexis Leondis

June 10 (Bloomberg) —The global millionaires’ club expanded by about 14 percent in 2009 with Singapore leading the way, The Boston Consulting Group said.

The number of millionaire households increased to 11.2 million, according to the study released yesterday by the Boston-based firm. Singapore posted a 35 percent gain, followed by Malaysia, Slovakia and China. In 2008, the number of millionaire households fell about 14 percent to 9.8 million.

“Given the severity and magnitude of the crisis, I’m surprised at how fast global wealth has come back,” Bruce Holley, a senior partner in the firm’s New York office and topic expert for wealth management and private banking for the U.S., said in a telephone interview before the report was released.

Global wealth rose by 11.5 percent after falling 10 percent in 2008, as assets under management increased to $111.5 trillion, close to the annual study’s record $111.6 trillion in 2007. North America, defined as the U.S. and Canada, had the greatest gain in assets at $4.6 trillion to $35.1 trillion. The U.S. also had the most millionaire households at 4.72 million, the survey said, while Europe remained the wealthiest region, with $37.1 trillion.

Current numbers may differ from those in last year’s report because of currency fluctuations and newer available data, said Peter Damisch, a BCG partner and a co-author of the report. The study looked at 62 countries representing more than 98 percent of global gross domestic product.

Wealth Recovery

The recovery in wealth last year was a result of resurgent financial markets and increased savings, the report said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 20 percent in 2009 and the U.S. savings rate averaged 4.2 percent compared with 2.6 percent a year earlier.

Global wealth dropped in 2008 for the first time since the survey’s 2001 inception as the credit crisis sent stock indexes tumbling and slashed the value of real-estate holdings, hedge- fund and private-equity investments.

Less than 1 percent of households globally were considered millionaires, which is defined as investable assets of more than $1 million, exclusive of real estate and property such as art. Wealth became more concentrated with millionaire households controlling 38 percent of the world’s assets compared with 36 percent a year earlier, the study said.

Singapore also had the highest proportion of millionaire households at 11.4 percent, followed by Hong Kong and Switzerland. The fourth, fifth and sixth spots were in the Middle East — Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. was seventh-highest at 4.1 percent.

Growth Rate

The amount of offshore wealth, defined as assets housed in a country other than the investor’s legal residence, increased to $7.4 trillion after declining to $6.8 trillion in 2008 as global regulators pressured countries such as Switzerland to cut down on bank secrecy. Switzerland remained the largest offshore center, with about 27 percent, or $2 trillion, of assets, the report said.

Global wealth will increase at an average annual rate of almost 6 percent from yearend 2009 through 2014, which is higher than the 4.8 percent annual growth rate from yearend 2004 through 2009, the study said. Wealth in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, is expected to rise almost double the global rate. Last year’s survey said total wealth wouldn’t return to pre-recession levels until 2013.

‘Still Feel Burned’

The report’s authors also looked at the performance of 114 wealth management firms worldwide and found revenue declined by an average of 7.3 percent as assets under management increased an average of 14.3 percent. Reasons for decreased revenue include fewer transactions, tougher price negotiations and a shift to lower-risk asset classes and investments that are liquid and simple, the study said.

Investors feel frustrated and distrustful following the market events beginning in 2008, despite the increase in wealth, Holley said.

“People still feel burned,” said Holley. “I think the numbers in the report suggest a much rosier experience than how people actually feel.”

Taylor

This means we can have far lower taxes for any given amount of govt spending.

Hope they all see it that way!

Friday, May 21, 2010

The Administration and the IMF on the Multiplier
In a soon to be published paper, several economists at the International Monetary Fund report estimates of government spending multipliers which are much smaller than those previously reported by the U.S.

Administration. In order to obtain the estimates the IMF economists use a very large complex model called the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) Model developed by Douglas Laxton and his colleagues at the IMF . The paper is quite technical, but the bottom line summary is that a one percent increase in government purchases (as a share of GDP) increases GDP by a maximum of 0.7 percent and then fades out rapidly. This means that government spending crowds out other components of GDP (investment, consumption, net exports) immediately and by a large amount.

The IMF estimate is much less than the multiplier reported in a paper released last year by Christina Romer of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers and Jared Bernstein of the Vice President’s Office. The attached graph shows how huge the difference is. It shows the impact on GDP of a one percentage point permanent increase in government purchases as a share of GDP reported in the IMF paper (labeled GIMF) and in the Administration paper (labeled Romer-Bernstein).

John Cogan, Volker Wieland, Tobias Cwik and I raised questions about Romer-Bernstein paper soon after it was released last year because the estimates seemed to be much different from comparable estimates based on more modern new Keynesian models. We classified the Romer-Bernstein estimates as old Keynesian. Since then many technical papers have been written on this subject, of which a recent paper by Michael Woodford is the most comprehensive in my view. The IMF model is of the new Keynesian variety and adds more evidence of the huge policy differences between new Keynesian and old Keynesian models.

Posted by John B. Taylor at 12:48 AM