Category Archives: Daily

2007-12-26 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-26 S&P-Case Shiller Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 192.9
Prior 195.6
Revised 195.7

2007-12-26 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Oct)

Survey -5.7%
Actual -6.1%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

2007-12-26 S&P-Case-Shiller 20 MoM%

S&P/CS 20 MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.42%
Prior -0.84%
Revised n/a
% Change -69.05%

2007-12-26 Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller TABLE

Survey 1
Actual -4
Prior 0
Revised n/a

It’s a big city index and has been down more than broader measures. Biggest drops have come in Miami, Las Vegas, Detroit, and Los Angeles. Also, these are October numbers – old news now.

2007-12-26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey 1
Actual -4
Prior 0
Revised n/a

2007-12-26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing TABLE

Redmond Manufacturing TABLE

Some weakness and higher prices.

2007-12-26 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -23
Prior -17
Revised

This was when CNBC was still gloomy. Now that CNBC has turned a bit more optimistic, maybe the number will turn up as well.

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2007-12-21 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-21 Personal Income

Personal Income (Nov)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

OK number.

2007-12-21 Personal Spending

Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Nice bounce back from a low number also revised up. Makes the two month average about 0.75%. This will cause further upward revisions of Q4 GDP.

2007-12-21 PCE Deflator YoY

PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.6%
Prior 2.9%
Revised 3.0%

Back to my favorite quote from September, ‘If the fed doesn’t care about inflation, why should I?’

Wonder what it takes for the fed to care?

2007-12-21 PCE Core MoM

PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2007-12-21 PCE Core YoY

PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 2.0%

Core at or though fed’s upper bound.

2007-12-21-u-of-michigan-confidence.gif

U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey 74.5
Actual 75.5
Prior 74.5
Revised 2.0%

People still watching CNBC.

2007-12-21 Inflation Expecations - 1 Year Ahead

Inflation Expectations – 1 Year Ahead

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

One of the fed’s indicators – don’t like this action as they think once it elevates it’s too late.

2007-12-21 Inflation Expecations - 5 Years Ahead

Inflation Expectations – 5 Years Ahead

Survey n/a
Actual 3.1%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

As above – once it elevates it’s too late.

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2007-12-20 US Economic Releases

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small 2007-12-20 GPD Annualized

GDP Annualized (3QF)

Survey 4.9%
Actual 4.9%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

small 2007-12-20 Personal Consumption

Personal Consumption (3QF)

Survey 42.8.9%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 2.7%
Revised n/a

2007-12-20 GDP Price Index

GDP Price Index (3QF)

Survey 0.9%
Actual 1.0%
Prior 0.9%
Revised n/a

Above numbers as expected.

small 2007-12-20 Core PCE QoQ

Core PCE QoQ (3QF)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 1.8%
Revised n/a

This is now at the upper bound of the fed’s comfort zone.

2007-12-20 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 15)

Survey 335K
Actual 346K
Prior 333K
Revised 334K

Creeping up.

Fed gets concerned if it gets over 375K.

2007-12-20 Continuing Claims

Continuing Claims (Dec 8)

Survey 2610K
Actual 264K
Prior 2639K
Revised 2634K

Creeping up as well, but not yet a major concern.

2007-12-20 Leading Indicators

Leading Indicators (Nov)

Survey -0.3%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

Pretty much in line with expectations.

2007-12-20 Philadelphia Fed.

Philadelphia Fed. (Dec)

Survey 6.0%
Actual -5.7%
Prior 8.2%
Revised n/a

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2007-12-19 US Economic Releases

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Mortgage Applications Past 5 Years

Purchase Applications going back 5 years

2007-12-19 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 14)

Survey n/a
Actual -19.5
Prior 2.5
Revised n/a

Looks like it’s still turning up, and continues to be up year over year.

Note the sharp fall off every December into year end and quick bounce back early Jan.

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2007-12-18 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-18 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Nov)

Survey 1176K
Actual 1187K
Prior 1229K
Revised 1232K

2007-12-18 Building Permits

Building Permits (Nov)

Survey 1150K
Actual 1152K
Prior 1178K
Revised 1170K

While housing is still down and out, I’m going out on a limb and saying it’s not going to get much worse, and the next meaningful move is up, particularly if exports hold up. December, January, and February are slow months, and the data doesn’t tell me much; so, it will be ninety days before we get any clarity of where it’s actually going.

2007-12-18 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -17
Prior -23
Revised n/a

The CNBC Effect wearing off some?

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2007-12-14 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-14 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY(Nov)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 CPI Core Index SA

CPI Core Index SA (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 210.177
Prior 212.050
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 Consumer Price Index NSA

Consumer Price Index NSA (Nov)

Survey 209.800
Actual 210.177
Prior 208.936
Revised n/a

Pretty frisky inflation number with one apparent anomaly

  • Headline is 0.796% MoM and 4.3% YoY.
  • Core 0.275% MoM and 2.3% YoY.
  • Many components on trend: OER 0.3%, medical 0.4%, recreation 0.1%, tobacco 0.2%
  • Apparel was off-trend, rising 0.8%.
  • Within apparel, mens and women’s clothing were both negative for the month. So the sole source within this category was ‘toddler and infant’ clothing, rising 1.7%.
  • This would have knocked down core enough to round down to 0.2%.
  • But persistence of inflation here disconcerting to Fed.

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2007-12-13 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-13 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.5%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

Off the charts!

2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

Core moving up to headline?
That’s the fed’s worst nightmare now.

2007-12-13 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 6.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

Moving higher from an already too high number.

2007-12-13 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

The ‘anchor’ is slipping.

2007-12-13 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

Consumer spent above energy price hikes.
Reserves the softness of the 0.2% spending number reported for October.

2007-12-13 Retail Sales Less Auto

Retail Sales Less Auto (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Very strong.

2007-12-13 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 335K
Actual 333K
Prior 338K
Revised 340K

Fed sees no slack in the labor markets.

2007-12-13 Continuing Claims

Counting Claims (Dec 1)

Survey 2599K
Actual 2639K
Prior 2599K
Revised 2601K

Some weakness here but overwhelmed by the other numbers being reported.

2007-12-13 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Oct)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

No obvious signals here.

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2007-12-12 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-12 MBA Mortgage Applications

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 7)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 22.5%
Revised n/a

2007-12-07 Mortgage Bankers Association Purchas Index SA

Mortgage Bankers Association Purchasing Index SA

Looking very firm. Possible evidence housing may have bottomed.

Affordability is up with prices flat to down, rates down, and nominal income growing.

Yes, I’ve heard the stories about multiple applications, but even if relevant it’s been the case for several months.

2007-12-12 Trade Balance

Trade Balance (Oct)

Survey -$58.4B
Actual -$57.8
Prior $-56.5B
Revised -$58.1B

Points to higher gross exports as oil prices were higher.

2007-12-12 Import Trade Index (MoM)

Import Trade Index MoM (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.7%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 1.4%

2007-12-12 Import Price Index (YoY)

Import Trade Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 11.0%
Actual 11.4%
Prior 9.6%
Revised 9.0%

First a series of very high inflation numbers coming this week.

2007-12-12 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement

Survey -$95.0
Actual -$98.2
Prior -$75.0
Revised n/a

A 17 billion December 1 payment counted for November this year as it fell on a weekend; so, only about a 10 billion over last year. When this goes up in earnest, it is coincident with a slowdown. Watch this number closely!

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