2008-01-11 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 12, 2008 @ 4:36 pm (Saturday) by WARREN MOSLER

Trade Balance (Nov)

Survey	-$59.5B
Actual	-$63.1B
Prior	-$57.8B
Revised	n/a

Exports holding up. Oil price jump and vol in aircraft shipments.

December exports are key for the quarter.

Import Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.0%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	3.3%

Went down continuously for years, now going up.

And with outsourcing, this represents what was previously unit labor costs.

Import Prices YoY (Dec)

Survey	10.5%
Actual	10.9%
Prior	11.4%
Revised	12.1%

Now supporting ‘inflation’ as above.

Monthly Budget Statement (Dec)

Survey	$50.0B
Actual	$48.3B
Prior	$42.0B
Revised	n/a

Receipts holding up. This is a pretty good coincident indicator of GDP.

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2008-01-10 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 10, 2008 @ 11:06 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 5)

Survey	340K
Actual	322K
Prior	336K
Revised	337K

Continuing Claims (Dec 29)

Survey	2730K
Actual	2702K
Prior	2761K
Revised	2754K

Looks like employment for December was pretty good.

Wholesale Inventories (Nov)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.0%
Revised

November sales look good, and October revised up.

Inventory/sales ratio hits new low:

U.S. Nov wholesale inventories up 0.6 pct

by Lisa Lambert

(Reuters) Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.6 percent in November, but they did not keep pace with sales, which saw the biggest monthly increase in more than two years on rising petroleum prices, the government reported Thursday.

The Commerce Department said sales rose by 2.2 percent in November, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005. That reflected an 8.9 percent boost in petroleum sales, which a Commerce Department official said reflected higher prices. It was also
the biggest rise since September 2005, when a devastating hurricane season drove up the price of oil.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected a 0.4 percent gain in inventories, after a flat reading in October, which was unrevised. The department had a big revision in sales during October, reporting a 1.4 percent rise instead of the prior estimate of 0.7 percent.

In a sign businesses are not building up stockpiles as the economy slows, the inventory-to-sales ratio — a measure of the number months it would take to deplete existing stocks at the current sales pace — fell to a record low of 1.07 months from October’s downwardly revised 1.08 months.

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	0.9%
Prior	3.5%
Revised	n/a

Certainly moderating, but not all that bad.

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2008-01-09 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 9, 2008 @ 10:02 am (Wednesday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 4)

Survey	n/a
Actual	32.2%
Prior	-11.6%
Revised	n/a

As expected, purchase applications sprung back after the annual fall of in late Dec.

Markets were concerned this wouldn’t happen this year.

Refi index up indicates market functioning returning here as well.

30 year mtg rate down to 5.73% – way lower than August.

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2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 8, 2008 @ 6:16 pm (Tuesday) by WARREN MOSLER

Pending Home Sales Total SA

Survey	-0.7%
Actual	-2.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom.

		Economic Outlook	Personal Financial Outlook	Federal Economic Policies	Overall
Jan.	2008	31.4	55.7	42.7	43.2
Dec.	2007	32.1	58.3	42.7	44.4
Nov.	2007	30.8	53.5	47.1	43.8
Oct.	2007	38.5	58.2	45.1	47.3
Sept.	2007	37.9	59.3	47.3	48.2
Aug.	2007	40.3	59.8	48.5	49.5
July	2007	39.5	58.3	46.8	48.2
June	2007	41.3	58.9	47.1	49.1
May	2007	39.1	57.6	47.3	48
April	2007	34.9	56.2	45.3	45.5
March	2007	41.5	61.1	49.8	50.8
Feb.	2007	46.4	60.8	51	52.7

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan) TABLE

Survey	43.0
Actual	43.2
Prior	44.4
Revised	n/a

Speaks for itself…

Consumer Credit Total Net Change

Survey	$8.0B
Actual	$15.4B
Prior	$4.7B
Revised	$2.0B

Explains November spending strength and probably borrowed from December due to how the holidays fell.

ABC Consumer Confidence

Survey	-20
Actual	-20
Prior	-20
Revised	n/a

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2008-01-04 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 4, 2008 @ 11:48 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Unemployment Rate (Dec)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	5.0%
Prior	4.7%
Revised	n/a

It comes from the household survey – been volatile.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Survey	70K
Actual	18K
Prior	94K
Revised	115K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec)

Survey	-15K
Actual	-31K
Prior	-11K
Revised	-13K

Payroll increases continue to decline modestly over time. The fed believes demographic changes will reduce the labor force participation rate, keeping unemployment relatively low and labor markets tight, even with fewer jobs.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.4%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	0.4%

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec)

Survey	3.6%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.8%
Revised	n/a

Remains firm, and productivity probably down, meaning unit labor costs rising some.

Average Weekly Hours (Dec)

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.8
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey	53.6
Actual	53.9
Prior	54.1
Revised

Very firm and cross checks with th 93,000 increase in service sector jobs for December.

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Note the strength in the price categories.

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2008-01-03 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 3, 2008 @ 10:04 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 28)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-11/6%
Prior	-7.6%
Revised	n/a

Last December number – purchase applications normally shoot back up in January.

Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-18.7%
Prior	-4.7%
Revised	n/a

Graph looks OK.

ADP Employment Change (Dec)

Survey	33K
Actual	40K
Prior	189K
Revised	173K

A touch better than expected, trending down some, but fed thinks there are fewer people left to hire. This is a real number as ADP reports the actual number of people on its payroll system.

Initial Jobless Claims

Survey	345K
Actual	336K
Prior	349K
Revised	357K

This kind of drop means there is no weakness indicated here.

Continuing Claims (Dec 22)

Continuing Claims since 1980

Survey	2675K
Actual	2761K
Prior	2713K
Revised	2715K

Up some, but the long term graph looks fine.

Factory Orders (Nov)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	1.5%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	0.7%

No weakness here.

Total Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey	16.0M
Actual	16.3M
Prior	16.2M
Revised	n/a

Still on the soft side, but no disaster.

Domestic Vehicle Sales (Dec)

Survey	12.2M
Actual	12.5M
Prior	12.4M
Revised	n/a

As above.

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2008-01-02 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 3, 2008 @ 12:22 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	258.86
Prior	259.22
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index YoY (Oct)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-3.4295
Prior	-2.4848
Revised	n/a

Metropolitan housing prices remain very weak.

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey	50.5
Actual	47.7
Prior	50.8
Revised	n/a

On the weak side – mainly new orders.

Employment ok.

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey	65.0
Actual	68.0
Prior	67.5
Revised	n/a

No weakness here!

Construction Spending MoM (Nov)

Survey	-0.4%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	-0.8%
Revised	-0.4%

Stronger than expected; may have bottomed.

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 30)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-20
Prior	-23
Revised	n/a

Moderately less negative.

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2007-12-31 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 31, 2007 @ 4:34 pm (Monday) by WARREN MOSLER

Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Survey	4.97M
Actual	5.00M
Prior	4.97M
Revised	4.98K

Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey	0.0%
Actual	0.4%
Prior	-1.2%
Revised	-1.0%

Could be bottoming. Affordability is up nicely, employment is reasonably strong, income holding up nicely. And on a per capita basis, housing is at forty year lows.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Dec)

Survey	n/a
Actual	62.0
Prior	60.0
Revised	n/a

NAPM-Milwaukee TABLE

Table looks solid, and prices are still up quite a bit.

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2007-12-28 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 28, 2007 @ 4:23 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Dec)

Survey	51.7
Actual	56.6
Prior	52.9
Revised	n/a

Graph Looks Ok.

New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey	717K
Actual	647K
Prior	728K
Revised	711K

New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey	-1.6%
Actual	-9.0%
Prior	1.7%
Revised	1.7%

Still heading south, but less impact on GDP.

Also, fewer homes are being built.

Existing home sales Monday will mean more.

And during the winter months, seasonally, fewer months are built and sold; so, small absolute changes get magnified.

Help Wanted Index (Nov)

Survey	23
Actual	21
Prior	23
Revised	22

Working its way lower in line with a still strong, but softening labor market.

Most recent plunge seems to be related to CNBC gloom and doom talk that started in August.

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2007-12-27 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 27, 2007 @ 6:19 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

MBAVPCH Index

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 21)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-7.6%
Prior	19.5%
Revised	n/a

Goes down this time every year and bounces back early January.

Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey	2.0%
Actual	0.1%
Prior	-0.4%
Revised	-0.4%

Durable Goods Ex Transportation (Nov)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	-0.7%
Prior	-0.7%
Revised	-0.9%

Still drifting lower over time.

Domestic demand has been gradually softening for about a year and a half, as the lower deficit hiked the financial obligation ratios to levels where the rate of consumer credit expansion peaked.

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 22)

Survey	340K
Actual	349K
Prior	346K
Revised	348K

Continuing Claims (Dec 15)

Survey	2645K
Actual	2713K
Prior	2646K
Revised	2638K

Drifting up very modestly.

Consumer Confidence (Dec)

Survey	86.5
Actual	88.6
Prior	87.3
Revised	87.8

CNBC gloominess peaked?

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