Tag Archives: CPI Ex Food & Energy

2008-12-16 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.40%
Prior 0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to move lower.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior -0.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to move lower.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.40%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 9)

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Consumer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Headline CPI dropped 1.7% M/M in November after 1.0% decline last month (Y/Y now at +1.1%)

  • Core was flat in November after 0.1% decline (Y/Y at 2.0% and 3 month annualized at 0.4%… core is decelerating quickly and inflation certainly not a concern for Fed at this point)

  • OER was up 0.3% M/M, but partly due to a decline in utility prices that increases economic rents

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CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Way down, as crude oil and gasoline are lower than they were last year.

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CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Core drifting lower though owner equivalent rent went up .30% as utility costs fell and rents stayed about the same.

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CPI Core Index SA (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.849
Prior 216.801
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (Nov)

Survey 212.699
Actual 212.425
Prior 216.573
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Nov)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Nov)

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Housing Starts (Nov)

Survey 763K
Actual 625K
Prior 791K
Revised 771K

 
Keeps falling as the headlines have the public and financial institutions scared stiff.

Karim writes:

  • Housing Starts dropped to 625k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 771k last month and 1,179k last year (this should put more downward pressure on residential investment in GDP through early 2009)

  • Permits dropped to 616k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 730k last month and 1,111k last year

  • Token “Sliver” lining- less pressure on inventories from new homes

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Building Permits (Nov)

Survey 700K
Actual 616K
Prior 708K
Revised 730K

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2008-01-16 US Economic Releases

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2008-01-16 Mortgage Applications

Average Mortgage Purchasing Index (Jan 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 461.20
Prior 414.00
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 Mortgage Applications

Mortgage Refi’s (Jan 11)

Survey n/a
Actual 3575.50
Prior 2494.20
Revised n/a

Purchase index back on uptrend, refi way up. Lower rates and return of market functioning coming together nicely.

Still looks like housing could have bottomed October/November, but jury is still out pending data and revisions.

JP Morgan mtg revenue spiked up as JPM gains market share in mtg markets.

Houses are cheaper, lenders aggressive with real buyers, and income has continued higher.

See Mortgage applications soar.

2008-01-16 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.1%
Prior 4.3%
Revised n/a

2008-01-16 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

See Food/fuel/$ bakes in core.

2008-01-16 Industrial Production

Industrial Production (Dec)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.3%
Revised n/a

Graph looks OK – holding its own!

2008-01-16 Capacity Utilization

Capacity Utilization (Dec)

Survey 81.2%
Actual 81.4%
Prior 81.5%
Revised 81.6%

Drifting off some, but still at a relatively high level.

2008-01-16 NAHB Housing Market Index

NAHB Housing Market Index (Jan)

Survey 19
Actual 19
Prior 19
Revised 18

Rounding bottom?

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2007-12-14 US Economic Releases

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2007-12-14 Consumer Price Index MoM

Consumer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

CPI Ex Food & Energy (Nov)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 Consumer Price Index YoY

Consumer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 4.1%
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.5%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY(Nov)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 CPI Core Index SA

CPI Core Index SA (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 210.177
Prior 212.050
Revised n/a

2007-12-14 Consumer Price Index NSA

Consumer Price Index NSA (Nov)

Survey 209.800
Actual 210.177
Prior 208.936
Revised n/a

Pretty frisky inflation number with one apparent anomaly

  • Headline is 0.796% MoM and 4.3% YoY.
  • Core 0.275% MoM and 2.3% YoY.
  • Many components on trend: OER 0.3%, medical 0.4%, recreation 0.1%, tobacco 0.2%
  • Apparel was off-trend, rising 0.8%.
  • Within apparel, mens and women’s clothing were both negative for the month. So the sole source within this category was ‘toddler and infant’ clothing, rising 1.7%.
  • This would have knocked down core enough to round down to 0.2%.
  • But persistence of inflation here disconcerting to Fed.

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