Category Archives: Daily

2008-06-18 US Economic Releases

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 13)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.8%
Prior 10.9%
Revised n/a

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MBAVPRCH Index (Jun 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 359.6
Prior 376.2
Revised n/a

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MBAVREFI Index (Jun 13)

Survey n/a
Actual 1378.6
Prior 1622.1
Revised n/a

Purchase applications remain in the ‘new’ range.

US mortgage refinance applications plunge – MBA

(Reuters) Applications for U.S. home mortgages dropped for the fourth week in the last five as soaring rates on standard, fixed-rate mortgages choked off refinancing opportunities, an industry group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity fell 8.7 percent to 508.4 in the week ended June 13.

The MBA’s seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications tumbled last week by 15 percent to 1,378.6 — its lowest since July 2006.

The gauge of loan requests for home purchases declined 4.3 percent to 360.2.


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2008-06-16 US Economic Releases

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Empire Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey -2.0
Actual -8.7
Prior -3.2
Revised n/a

Empire Manufacturing TABLE (Jun)

Looks like the worst is over, but the economy remains on the weak side.

Prices paid still way high.

Looks like number of employees up as well.

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Net Long-term TIC Flows (Apr)

Survey $63.3B
Actual $115.1B
Prior $80.4B
Revised $79.6B

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Total Net TIC Flows (Apr)

Survey $42.5B
Actual $60.6B
Prior -$48.2B
Revised $79.6B

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TIC TABLE (Apr)

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun)

Survey 19
Actual 18
Prior 19
Revised n/a

A bit worse than expected. Confidence is down all over due to food/crude/import prices. Might be the case here.

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NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun)


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2008-06-13 US Economic Releases

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Consumer Price Index MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

From Karim:

More divergence between headline and core.

  • Headline up .6498% m/m and 4.2% y/y; 3mth annualized rate of 4.9%
  • Core up .202% and 2.3% y/y; 3mth annualized rate of 1.8%

Trends diverging

  • Gas (up 5.7%) and lodging away from home (+1.3%, but just reversing prior mth’s 1.9% drop) only major outliers
  • Medical (0.2%), oer (0.1%) and education (0.4%) all in line with trend

Kohn defended his inflation forecasting approach on Wednesday (based on ’50yrs’ of analysis). Basically using an ‘expectations augmented’ Philips Curve; meaning slack (which he stated is opening up) is largest determinant of inflation, as long as expectations are stable. He said if ‘over time’ expectations did not recede, it would be ‘troublesome’ for inflation; in the meantime, the Fed would ‘temporarily’ allow a rise in both inflation and joblessness. Some Regional Bank Presidents may feel differently.

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CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index YoY (May)

Survey 3.9%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

The dip in the second half of 2006 was entirely due to the Goldman induced commodity sell off when the gasoline weighting in their index was changed.

Prices have now fully recovered and resumed their uptrend.

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CPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (May)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Food and energy prices are just beginning to be passed through to core CPI. Everything is composed of food and energy, so it’s just a matter of time before all prices catch up, particularly with GDP now moving up some with the latest fiscal package kicking in.

Because headline CPI is a smaller percentage of GDP than it was in the 70’s, the passthrough will take a bit longer.

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CPI Core Index SA (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 214.832
Prior 214.398
Revised n/a

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Consumer Price Index NSA (May)

Survey 216.205
Actual 216.632
Prior 214.823
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jun P)

Survey 59.0
Actual 56.7
Prior 59.8
Revised n/a

Below expectations, but seems inflation is cutting into confidence, so this doesn’t give the Fed a reason not to hike at the next meeting.

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Inflation Expectations 1yr Forward (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.1%
Prior 5.2%
Revised n/a

This is persisting at far too high a level for Fed comfort.

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2008-06-12 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-12 Import Price Index MoM

Import Price Index MoM (May)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 2.4%

The Fed sees this as imported inflation pouring through the $ channel.

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Import Price Index X Petro (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 113.8
Prior 113.2
Revised n/a

Just in case you thought it was all oil.

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Import Price Index YoY (May)

Survey 17.2%
Actual 17.8%
Prior 15.4%
Revised 16.3%

The Fed sees this as a relentless assault on inflation expectations.

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Import Price Index X Petro YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.6%
Prior 6.6%
Revised n/a

[comments]

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Import Prices TABLE (May)

[comments]

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Advance Retail Sales (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 1.0%
Prior -0.2%
Revised 0.4%

Another better than expected report, and the previous month revised up as well.
If anything, the Fed sees the downside risks to growth are diminishing.
Rebate checks may be doing more than the Fed anticipated.

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Advance Retail Sales ALLX (May)

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Retail Sales Less Autos (May)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 0.5%
Revised 1.0%

Seems to be broad based spending, though still moderate.

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Retail Sales X Auto, Building Materials, & Gas Stations (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 247.7
Prior 245.7
Revised n/a

[comments]

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Initial Jobless Claims (June 7)

Survey 370K
Actual 384K
Prior 357K
Revised 359K

Back up to the higher end of the ‘new’ range, as the 4 week average remains very steady.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (May 31)

Survey 3118K
Actual 3139K
Prior 3093K
Revised 3081K

The highest report of this cycle, but still far below recession levels. Also, with GDP prospects looking up, the Fed is getting concerned that unemployment isn’t high enough to keep inflation in check.

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Business Inventories (April)

Survey 0.3%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Higher than expected and prior month revised up as well. At the point in the cycle this probably indicates inventory is being built to meet higher sales expectations, rather than inventory accumulating due to sales falling short. Inventories have been on the low side, and rebuilding them adds to GDP.

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2008-06-11 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-11 MBAVPRCH Index

MBAVPRCH Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 376.2
Prior 333.6
Revised n/a

Moved up off the ‘bottom’ of the ‘new range’ and moving the same direction as pending home sales that surprised on the upside.

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2008-06-11 MBAVREFI Index

MBAVREFI Index (Jun 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1622.1
Prior 1496.1
Revised n/a

Muddling through. Most of the resets have are now history.

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2008-06-11 Bloomberg Global Confidence

Bloomberg Global Confidence

Survey n/a
Actual 21.01
Prior 22.73
Revised n/a

Global inflation cutting into consumer buying plans.

In some ways this conflicts with expectations theory that theorizes that consumers will accelerate purchases if they expect higher prices.

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2008-06-11 Monthly Budget Statement

Monthly Budget Statement (May)

Survey -$164.5B
Actual -$165.9B
Prior -$67.7B
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-11 Federal Debt Percent GDP

Federal Debt Percent GDP


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2008-06-10 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-10 US Trade Balance

Trade Balance (April)

Survey -$60.0B
Actual -$60.9B
Prior -$58.2B
Revised -$56.5B

A bit of a backup due to petroleum prices but gradually getting smaller as CB’s and Monetary authorities have cut back their rate of accumulation of $US financial assets.

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2008-06-10 Trade Balance Ex Petrol

Trade Balance Ex Petrol (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -$26.411B
Prior -$26.284B
Revised n/a

This has been quickly reversing and offsetting the higher prices paid for crude oil imports.

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2008-06-10 Trade Balance ALLX

Trade Balance ALLX (Apr)

Lots of interesting data here, as, in general, exports continue to increase at emerging market type rates.

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2008-06-10 IBD TIPP Consumer Confidence TABLE

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jun)

Survey 40.0
Actual 37.4
Prior 40.3
Revised n/a

Inflation taking a bite into optimism.

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2008-06-11 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (June 8)

Survey -47
Actual -45
Prior -45
Revised n/a

A little better but still low due to weak equities and high inflation.


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2008-06-09 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-09 Pending Home Sales MoM

Pending Home Sales MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 6.3%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-09 Pending Home Sales YoY

Pending Home Sales YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -13.8%
Prior -21.7%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-09 Pending Home Sales ALLX

Pending Home Sales ALLX

Yet another better than expected release.

Might be too strong to call this a blow out number, but only because it’s from a low base.

The northeast was about flat, the rest of the regions up.

For a while I’ve been suggesting we bottomed in the Oct/Nov period and it still looks like that could be about right.

Note the large jump in the non seasonally adjusted numbers.

Prices should be (irregularly) moving up as well.

And housing will be expected to subtract less from GDP. Might even start adding soon.

The Fed is getting what it perceives as ‘further and further behind the inflation curve’ as CPI continues higher and GDP moves higher.

And much of the financial sector is getting left behind as the real economy moves forward without it.

Friday’s unemployment info was a lagging indicator and now it’s fading from market memory as well as evidenced by the large increases in market interest rates.


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2008-06-06 Economic Releases

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2008-06-06 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (May)

Survey -60K
Actual -49K
Prior -20K
Revised -28K

Down 49,000 was better than expected.
Previous months revised down an additional total of 15,000.

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate

Unemployment Rate (May)

Survey 5.1%
Actual 5.5%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-06 Unemployment Rate ALLX

Unemployment Rate ALLX

Total employment is over 138 million, and the seasonal adjustment dropped the actual number by over 1.5 million jobs.

So this report is fighting strong seasonal adjustments.

5.5% unemployment from the household survey is a lot worse than expected.

Seems 500,000 new job seekers entered the labor force in that survey, apparently a statistical quirk added that many teenagers and 20-24 year olds out of sync with seasonal adjustments.

Even so, the labor markets remain on the weak side.

But they are strong enough to support crude at $131.72 (as Saudi oil production continues to grow at even these higher prices and headline inflation) is well north of 4%, as the May CPI is expected to show.

Employment is also strong enough to yield positive GDP growth – no recession yet.

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2008-06-06 Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (May)

Survey -40K
Actual -26K
Prior -46K
Revised -49

Better than expected, in line with other recent report.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (May)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised n/a

A touch higher than expected, but not that bad.

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2008-06-06 Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (May)

Survey 3.4%
Actual 3.5%
Prior 3.4%
Revised 3.5%

Also a bit higher than expected, but still not moving higher.

‘Wage inflation’ is not the issue, nor is it necessary condition for problematic inflation, especially in an export economy.

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2008-06-06 Average Weekly Hours

Average Weekly Hours (May)

Survey 33.7
Actual 33.7
Prior 33.7
Revised n/a

Holding steady.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories MoM

Wholesale Inventories MoM (April)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 1.3%
Prior -0.1%
Revised 0.1%

Higher than expected, but not at recession levels yet.

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2008-06-06 Wholesale Inventories YoY

Wholesale Inventories YoY (April)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.1%
Prior 7.0%
Revised n/a

Higher than expected, but still not all that high.

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2008-06-06 Consumer Credit

Consumer Credit (April)

Survey $7.2B
Actual $8.9B
Prior $15.3B
Revised $13.1B

This month a bit better than expected, last month revised down a bit. Consumer credit seems to be chugging along at better than recession levels.


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2008-06-05 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-05 Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims (May 31)

Survey 375K
Actual 357K
Prior 372K
Revised 375K

Whoops, no recession here – the ‘better than expected’ trend continues.

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2008-06-05 Continuing Jobless Claims

Continuing Claims (May 24)

Survey 3110K
Actual 3093K
Prior 3104K
Revised 3109K

And these are now coming off as well.

The Great Repricing of Risk -‘the worst recession since the Great Depression’- is looking more like a tiny blip for the real economy?

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2008-06-05 Mortgage Delinquencies

Mortgage Delinquencies (1Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.35%
Prior 5.82%
Revised n/a

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2008-06-05 Mortgage Delinquencies Survey

Mortgage Delinquencies Survey

Lagging indicators that shows how bad it was, probably in Q4 2007.
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2008-06-05 ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY

ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY (May)

Survey 1.8%
Actual 3.0%
Prior 3.6%
Revised 3.5%

And yet another better than expected number.

The recent numbers are most likely better than Fed forecasters expected as well


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