Recession Archive

ECB’s Stark: US Has an ‘Enormous’ Debt Problem

So much for Jeurgen’s legacy: US Has an ‘Enormous’ Debt Problem: ECB Official September 1 (CNBC) — A debt crisis is still gripping the developed world, European Central Bank policymaker Juergen Stark said, adding there was no alternative but for countries to take painful steps to consolidate their public finances. “The crisis ...Read More

Economy Faces a Jolt as Benefit Checks Run Out

When there is a lack of aggregate demand due to high ‘savings desires’ as the unemployed take jobs when benefits expire, it just means someone else loses a job, and then some, as govt deficit spending falls as well, further reducing aggregate demand. It also serves to drive down wages, as per ...Read More

mtg apps dip

How does that go again about low rates helping housing? Mortgage Applications Dipped Last Week June 29 (Reuters) — Applications for U.S. home mortgages slipped last week as demand waned, even as mortgage rates dropped, an industry group said Wednesday. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application ...Read More

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mtg apps for new purchases fall again

Seems the fall off after the tax credit ended April 30th has yet to fully run its course: US Mortgage Applications Soar on Refinance Demand July 7th (Reuters) —Refinancing drove total U.S. mortgage applications to a nine-month high last week, while demand for loans to purchase homes sunk to a near 13-year ...Read More

Re: Budget surpluses cause depressions

[Skip to the end] (email exchange) All a bunch of true but not relevant crapola. All 6 US depressions were preceded by the first 6 periods of budget surpluses. The 7th ended in 2001, as Bloomberg announced it was the longest surplus since 1927-1930. The difference now we are not on the ...Read More

Exports – looks good, feels bad

Net Exports as a % of GDP (Keep in mind: exports are real costs; imports real benefits.) Since January 2005 net exports (while still negative) have gone up by about 1.55% of GDP through 2007 year end, and so far have continued higher in Q1 2008. In Q1 2005 the general environment ...Read More

The full employment recession is over

Best guess: The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with today’s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week. That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it. It ...Read More


Agreed that government can buy stocks to keep them from falling, as HK did. But the 1930s was a gold standard deflationary collapse. The Fed was constrained from net buying anything due to the risk of losing gold reserves. The risks are very different now with non-convertible currency/floating fx: Depression risk might ...Read More

The full employment recession is spreading

Looks like the US full-employment recession is spreading: UK jobless rate falls to 5.2 percent in latest quarter The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom in the last quarter of 2007 fell to 5.2 percent, down from 5.4 percent in the previous quarter, the government said Wednesday. Average earnings, including bonuses, rose ...Read More