NFIB employment, BOJ solvency, Non Farm Payrolls, Claims, Factory Orders

The cheer leaders didn’t bother to report on this they way they did when employment was increasing:

U.S. small business hiring takes a breather in June: NFIB

July 1 (Reuters) — The National Federation of Independent Business said its monthly survey of members found hiring was little changed last month. Fifty-two percent of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire, with 44 percent of those reporting few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-four percent reported job openings they could not fill, down from 29 percent in May, the NFIB said. The share of business owners looking to increase employment dropped six points, to 16 percent, while those planning reductions was up two points, at 6 percent.

Too stupid an article for me to pass up:

Is quantitative easing putting the Bank of Japan’s solvency at risk?

July 2 (Nikkei) — The BOJ’s holdings of long-term Japanese government bonds rose by 80 trillion yen a year, and its total assets expanded to 324 trillion yen at the end of fiscal 2014. The bank’s return on assets, that is, net profit divided by total assets, stood at 0.31%. If the interest rate goes up by 1 percentage point the bank’s unrealized losses are estimated to jump from 3.3 trillion yen at the end of March 2013 to 13.8 trillion yen at the end of March 2015. With the BOJ’s assets now equal to 64.7% of Japan’s GDP the credibility of the central bank is tied to the Japanese government’s fiscal discipline.

Not good, remember how they cheered the 280,000 new jobs in May, and downplayed the rise in unemployment and the increase in the participation rate? Now May is down to 254,000 and the participation rate fell way back, so they are playing up the drop in unemployment. And note the lack of comments over the deceleration of the year over year growth of employment since oil prices fell. And watch how they cling to their ‘wage inflation’ story even as growth rates again fall back:

NFP
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Highlights
Push back that rate hike, at least that will be the initial reaction to June’s softer-than-expected employment report where nonfarm payroll growth came in at 223,000 vs Econoday expectations for 230,000 and include downward revisions totaling 60,000 to the two prior months (May revised to 254,000 from 280,000 and April to 187,000 from 221,000). Softness in payroll growth combines with softness in wage pressures with average hourly earnings unchanged in the month and the year-on-year rate moving down to 2.0 percent from 2.3 percent.

Timing distortions tied to the end of the school year, specifically new entrants to the labor market, appear to have pulled down the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent from 5.5 percent as the labor force in the household part of the report shrunk sharply, in turn pulling down the labor force participation rate by 3 tenths to an unusually low 62.6 percent. The U-6 unemployment rate, a favorite of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s, fell 3 tenths to 10.5 percent.

Turning back to the establishment part of the report, private payrolls rose 223,000 vs a revised 250,000 in May. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.5 hours. Industries of note include a solid 33,000 rise in retail jobs and a 64,000 rise in professional & business service jobs. The latter reading includes a solid 20,000 rise in temporary help that hints at gains for permanent hiring ahead. Manufacturing and construction jobs were flat.

Focusing on trends, nonfarm payroll growth averaged 221,000 in the second quarter vs 195,000 in the first quarter which, despite the disappointment in today’s report, is solid improvement. The employment side of the labor market isn’t gangbusters but it is moving in the right direction while the unemployment side is increasingly favorable. This is a mixed report with special factors and isn’t likely to shake up the markets.
er-7-2-2

No demographics here- just a big fat lack of aggregate demand:
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They call every zig up the start of ‘wage inflation’ even as they are all followed by zigs down:
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This too has leveled off after being touted for ‘lift off’ when it turned up a bit. And state and local deficits keep falling as tax revenues increase, which is an increase of fiscal drag:
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The rate of growth here had be on the rise but more recently has reversed:
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Up a tad but still low historically:

United States : Jobless Claims
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Highlights
Unemployment is very low right now, underscored by today’s 2 tenths drop in the unemployment rate to 5.3 percent and by the latest in jobless claims data where initial claims came in at 281,000 in the June 27 week. This is up 10,000 from the prior week but remains very low. The 4-week average inched 1,000 higher to a 274,750 level that is little changed from the month-ago comparison.

Continuing claims, where data lag by a week, rose 15,000 to 2.264 million in the June 20 week. The 4-week average is up 15,000 to 2.253 million. These readings, like those for initial claims, are also very low. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 1.7 percent in another reading that is very low.

Another big negative ‘surprise’, and note the weak export comment, and how autos were weak despite higher May sales. Might be because of the high import content of those sales?

United States : Factory Orders
er-7-2-9
Highlights
The factory sector, hit by weak exports, continues to stumble with factory orders down 1.0 percent in May. This compares with Econoday expectations for minus 0.3 percent and is near the low-end estimate for minus 1.2 percent.

The durables component of the report, initially released last week, is now revised lower, to minus 2.2 percent from minus 1.8 percent. Durables in April have also been revised lower to minus 1.7 percent from minus 1.5 percent. The nondurables component, released with today’s report, helped limit the damage but not by much, up 0.2 percent on gains for petroleum and coal following a 0.3 percent gain for April.

But aircraft orders, always volatile, are to blame for much of the durables weakness, falling 49.4 percent in the month. Excluding transportation equipment, which is where aircraft orders are tracked, factory orders were unchanged in May which isn’t great but is much better than the minus 0.6 percent print for April.

Weakness in energy equipment is also a negative factor of the factory sector, down 22.2 percent in May following a 2.1 percent decline in April. Motor vehicle orders are also surprisingly weak, down 1.3 percent in May despite very strong sales. Orders for defense aircraft were also weak, down 6.4 percent.

Capital goods data had been showing some life but not much anymore with nondefense orders excluding aircraft down 0.4 percent following a 0.7 percent decline in April. These are especially disappointing readings. And core shipments of capital goods are dead flat, at minus 0.1 percent following only a 0.2 percent gain in April. These readings will likely pull down second-quarter GDP estimates.

Other disappointments include a steep 0.5 percent decline in total unfilled orders following April’s 0.2 percent decline. Declines in unfilled orders are not a good omen for employment. Total shipments fell 0.1 percent in the month. Inventories at least are stable, unchanged in the month as is the inventory-to-shipments ratio at 1.35.

First there was the unemployment report this morning and now this report, both of which may raise concern among the doves at the Fed that the second-quarter bounce back is not much of a bounce back at all.
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2009-05-01 USER


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U of Michigan Confidence (Apr F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 65.1
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Final April rises to 65.1 from prelim 61.9
  • Inflation expectations edge down from 3.0% to 2.8% for 1yr fwd; edge up from 2.7% to 2.8% for 5yr fwd

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U of Michigan Confidence TABLE Inflation Expectations (Apr F)

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Factory Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.6%
Prior -19.7%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Mar)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.9%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Apr)

Survey 38.4
Actual 40.1
Prior 36.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • In line with signal provided by Chicago PMI yesterday. Improvement to a still contractionary level; orders boosted by some new found availability of cash/credit, though not all the way back (see anecdote below).
  • All sub-components up;16 or 17 industries still contracting.

Commodities Up in Price

Copper is the only commodity reported up in price.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum; Aluminum Based Products; Caustic Soda; Corrugated Containers; Fuel Surcharges; Natural Gas; Scrap Metal; Steel; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

No commodities are reported in short supply.

  • “International customers are having trouble getting cash for new orders, even though they need/want the equipment.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • “Starting to see some signs of increased production and demand from some automotive customers.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • “Business conditions continue to be soft, but agriculture-related products are still quite bullish.” (Machinery)
  • “We are optimistic that things will change for the better in 3Q.” (Chemical Products)
  • “Starting to hear of slight upticks in orders from some sectors of our business but not all.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

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ISM Prices Paid (Apr)

Survey 34.0
Actual 32.0
Prior 31.0
Revised n/a


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2009-04-02 USER


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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28)

Survey 650K
Actual 669K
Prior 652K
Revised 657K

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Continuing Claims (Mar 21)

Survey 5590K
Actual 5728K
Prior 5560K
Revised 5567K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 28)

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Factory Orders YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.8%
Prior -20.5%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Feb)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.8%
Prior -1.9%
Revised -3.5%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Feb)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Feb)


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2009-02-05 USER


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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 1.5%

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (4Q)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (4Q)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (4Q)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.8%
Revised 2.6%

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (4Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 31)

Survey 580K
Actual 626K
Prior 588K
Revised 591K

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Continuing Claims (Jan 24)

Survey 4795K
Actual 4788K
Prior 4776K
Revised 4768K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 31)

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Factory Orders YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -13.8%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Dec)

Survey -3.1%
Actual -3.9%
Prior -4.6%
Revised -6.5%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Dec)


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2009-01-06 USER


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Speaks for itself.


ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.40%
Prior -1.50%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.50%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 6)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Dec)

Survey 36.5
Actual 40.6
Prior 37.3
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.2%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.3%
Actual -4.6%
Prior -5.1%
Revised -6.0%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Nov)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Nov)

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -4.2%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.6%
Prior -3.9%
Revised n/a


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2008-11-04 USER


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Factory Orders YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.5%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

 
Dip down, but not terrible yet.

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Factory Orders MoM (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.5%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

 
Down, but down less than last month.

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Sep)

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual .90%
Prior 1.30%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to still be weakening but off the bottom and still positive.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior 0.50%
Revised n/a

 
Same, still on the plus side.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.30%
Prior 0.70%
Revised n/a

 
Looking lower, but still off the recent lows.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 4)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.20%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE


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2008-10-02 USER


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Monster Employment Index (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 160.00
Prior 159.00
Revised n/a

 
Counter trend move higher?

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Monster Employment Index MoM (Sep 8)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.3%
Revised n/a

 
Slightly positive.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 27)

Survey 475K
Actual 497K
Prior 493K
Revised 496K

 
Still high, but subtract maybe 50,000 for hurricanes and maybe the Boeing strike as well.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 20)

Survey 3550K
Actual 3591K
Prior 3542K
Revised 3543K

 
This was leveling off until the extended benefits package took effect, and has resumed its climb since.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 27)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.76%
Prior -17.15%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 224.28
Prior 230.00
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Still trending up year over year, but combined with other recent data doesn’t look good.

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Factory Orders MoM (Aug)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 0.7%

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Factory Orders TABLE (Aug)

 
Defense keeping this from being a lot worse.

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Aug)

 
Shipments down, unfilled orders up.


Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 1k to 497k, with 40-50k still accounted for by hurricanes (4wk avg 474k).
  • Continuing claims, not effected by hurricanes, rise another 48k to new cycle high of 3542k (4wk avg 3528k).
  • Continuing claims more highly correlated to duration of unemployment and wage demands.
  • Consensus NFP tomorrow is -105k; based on claims, Conf Board and ISM surveys, risks seem more in -150k area.


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2008-09-03 USER


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US Economic Releases


MBA Mortgage Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 349.0
Prior 315.9
Revised n/a

Nice to see this picking up. With agencies sorted out and income holding up, it should continue to improve over time.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Aug 29)

Survey n/a
Actual 1059.7
Prior 1038.0
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Aug 29)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Aug 29)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Aug)

Survey n/a
Actual 11.7%
Prior 140.8%
Revised n/a

This series hasn’t been all that useful one way or another.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Aug)

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Challenger Job Cuts ALLX (Aug)

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales WoW (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.2%
Revised n/a

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Looks okay. No recession here.

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Sep 2)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.3%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

Looks okay.

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ICSC-UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Sep 2)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jul)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 1.3%
Prior 1.7%
Revised 2.1%

Better than expected and previous month revised up.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 7.5%
Revised n/a

Could be construed as being in an uptrend!

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jul)

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Domestic Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 9.4M
Actual 10.4M
Prior 9.1M
Revised n/a

Even this has turned up, though from very low levels.

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Total Vehicle Sales (Aug)

Survey 13.0M
Actual 13.7M
Prior 12.5M
Revised n/a

Better than expected and may have bottomed. As the mix of vehicles produces switches, expect sales to increase.

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Vehicle Sales ALLX (Aug)


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2008-08-04 US Economic Releases


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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual 140.8%
Prior 46.7%
Revised n/a

Starting to reflect the labor market weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE (Jul)

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Personal Income MoM (Jun)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 1.9%
Revised 1.8%

Better than expected and looking ok.

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Personal Income YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.7%
Prior 6.0%
Revised n/a

Holding up with the fiscal package kicking in along with other government spending.

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Personal Income ALLX (Jun)

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Personal Spending MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

Also better than expected for same reasons.

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Personal Spending YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.3%
Prior 5.0%
Revised n/a

Looking pretty good here, too.

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PCE Deflator YOY (Jun)

Survey 3.7%
Actual 4.1%
Prior 3.1%
Revised 3.5%

ugly number for the Fed tomorrow.

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PCE Core MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.1%
Revised 0.2%

Fed wary of headline leaking into core. This is not encouraging.

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PCE Core YoY (Jun)

Survey 2.2%
Actual 2.3%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.2%

Also moving the wrong way for the Fed, and they know headline numbers leak into core with substantial lags.

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Personal Spending ALLX 1 (Jun)

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Personal Spending ALLX 2 (Jun)

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Factory Orders MoM (Jun)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.9%

Government and exports providing the support at the macro level.

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Factory Orders YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 7.1%
Prior 5.4%
Revised n/a

Looks to be moving up nicely.

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Factory Orders ALLX (Jun)


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2008-07-02 US Economic Releases


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Monster Employment Index (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 163
Prior 166
Revised 174

Down some, previously revised up, may be starting to level off.

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.6%
Prior -9.3%
Revised n/a

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MBA Mortgage Purchases (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 342.8
Prior 333.4
Revised n/a

Up some in the new, lower range.

In the past this level of applications was associated with housing starts maybe 50% higher but what was still considered low levels.

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MBA Mortgage Refinances (Jun 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 1269.2
Prior 1212.2
Revised n/a

Falling off but the number of adjustable rate resets coming due has crested as well.

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jun)

Survey n/a
Actual 46.7%
Prior 45.6%
Revised n/a

Moved up some but still well off previous recession levels.

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ADP Employment Change YoY (Jun)

Survey -20K
Actual -79K
Prior 40K
Revised 25K

Looks to be continuing its slow grind lower of the last few years.

The Fed sees some of this as long term demographics via a shrinking labor force participation rate.

Karim writes:

ADP for June -79k; has overstated nfp by an average of 77k per mth for past year.

NFP has been weaker than ADP every mth in 2008; it should actually be stronger as NFP includes govt payrolls.

I suppose there is always a first, but it does look like NFP could be well south of -100k tomorrow.

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.67%
Prior -13.97%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Apr)

Survey n/a
Actual 234.41
Prior 235.40
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.0%
Prior 4.0%
Revised n/a

Better than expected and actually seems to be moving up in general.

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Factory Orders MoM (May)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 1.3%

Better than expected and last month revised up some.

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Factory Orders Table (May)

Defense kicking in – may be 2007 spending that was moved forward to 2008.


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