How to fix the euro banking system

The banks need, and I propose, ECB deposit insurance for all euro zone banks.

Currently the member governments insure their own member bank deposits and do the regulation and supervision.

So to get from here to there politically they need to turn over banking supervision to the ECB.

Let me suggest that’s a change pretty much no one would notice or care about from a practical/operational point of view?

The political problem would come from losses from existing portfolios that, in the case of a bank failure due to losses in excess of equity capital, currently would be charged to the appropriate member nations.

So under my proposal, for the ECB to suffer actual losses a member bank that it supervises and regulates would have to suffer losses in excess of its capital.

And none of the member governments currently think that their banks have negative capital, especially if they assume member governments don’t default on their debt to the banks.

And this ‘fix’ for the banking system would help insure the member governments don’t default on their obligations to their banks.

The euro zone has three financial issues at this point. One is bank liquidity which this proposal fixes. Second is national government solvency, and third is the output gap.

They need to allow larger government deficits to narrow the output gap, but that first requires fixing the solvency issue.

The solvency issue can be addressed by having the ECB guarantee all of the member government debt, which then raises the moral hazard issue.

The moral hazard issue can be addressed by giving the EU the option of not having the ECB insure new government debt and forbidding its banks to buy new government debt as a penalty for violators of the debt and deficit limits of the Stability and Growth Pact.

Payrolls: Bleak with 1 Silver Lining


Karim writes:

Payrolls: Bleak with 1 Silver Lining

Highlights

  • Most of the key headlines of the survey were weak
  • Payrolls up only 69k with net revisions of -49k (April now +77k not 115k)
  • Unemployment rate up from 8.1% to 8.2% (labor force up 622k and household survey up 422k)
  • Average hourly earnings up 0.1% and index of aggregate hours -0.2%
  • Median duration of unemployment up from 19.4 weeks to 20.1 weeks and U6 unemployment rate up from 14.5% to 14.8%
  • The silver lining is that the Diffusion Index (# of industries adding jobs less those cutting jobs, indexed on a 0-100 scale) rose from 56 to 59.4
  • Downside shifts were heavily concentrated in 3 sectors (Construction -5k to -28k; Retail 27k to 2k; and Business services 37k to -1k)
  • Construction and retail (which includes leisure and hospitality) likely reflect the weather payback that Bernanke has highlighted; business services cuts likely reflect the late nature of tax season this year and some of those layoffs may not have taken place until May.

Conclusion

  • The diffusion index improvement implies the underlying state of the labor market is somewhat better than the headline; probably in the 125-150k range
  • Purely based on the economic data, additional Fed easing is unlikely
  • But the worsening of financial conditions via Europe have increased the odds of a continuation of Twist (in its current form) for at least 2-3mths

Not to overlook the increase in the labor force participation rate from 63.6 to 63.8!

And Q2 gdp talk still about 2%.
Still looks to me good for stocks, not so good for people, though lower gasoline prices good for consumers as is weak consumption overseas.

Saudi crude report

Looks to me like demand for their crude, at their posted prices, is still very strong. And as of approximately June 1 Iran is cutting back another 500,000 barrels per day or so, which changes this balance as of that date.

So yes, there are lots of cross currents- new supply, inventory jugglings of various sorts, etc.

But bottom line remains the net ‘call’ on Saudi crude, and what the Saudis want to charge for it.

That is, every day we either pay their price or let inventories run off or shut the lights off for a few hours.