ECB Seeks Expansion of Euro-Rescue Fund to Help Italy, Welt Says

Wonder what that does to the remaining contributing nations balance sheets?

Not good, and increases the likelihood of Italy getting seriously tested.

:(

ECB Seeks Expansion of Euro-Rescue Fund to Help Italy, Welt Says

By Karin Matussek

July 10 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank is seeking to have the euro-rescue fund expanded to include help for Italy, Die Welt reported, citing unidentified “high ranking” people at central banks.

The fund may have to be doubled to 1.5 trillion euros($2.14 trillion) to cover a crisis in Italy, the ECB said according to the German newspaper.

Central banks are no longer ready to buy government debt, so the rescue fund should take on that task instead, according to the bankers, Die Welt said preview of an article for tomorrow’s edition.

China June Inflation at 3-Year High

Note that as previously discussed, the rate hikes have, if anything, made it worse.

The slowdown comes from cutting back state lending and cutting back deficit spending.

And what usually happens is that governments press on with fiscal tightening, most often from automatic stabilizers triggered by the nominal growth, until they trigger a collapse and a hard landing.

But this time could be different…

China June Inflation at 3-Year High; Revives Rate Debate

July 9(Reuters) — China’s annual inflation accelerated to a three-year high in June, increasing the chances that the central bank will keep raising interest rates to tame price pressures that are spreading beyond food and energy.

Saturday’s data, which comes just three days after China raised interest rates for the third time this year, may prove to be the near-term peak for China’s inflation as global commodity prices cool, but most economists were still pencilling in one more rate increase this year.

The consumer price index for June rose 6.4 percent from a year earlier, slightly above economists’ forecasts for a 6.3 percent increase, with sharp rises recorded in food, consumer goods and property.

Obama Responsible for Poor Jobs Picture: Bachmann

Couldn’t agree more, but for different reasons.
(feel free to repost)

Comments below:

Obama Responsible for Poor Jobs Picture: Bachmann

By Jeff Cox

July 8 (CNBC) — The dismal state of employment offers more proof that President Obama’s economic plan isn’t working, Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann told CNBC.

Agreed!

Speaking just after the government said unemployment rose to 9.2 percent last month, the firebrand Minnesota congresswoman and Tea Party leader delivered a blistering critique of the White House’s handling of the jobs picture, focusing specifically on the $800 billion stimulus that has failed to drive down the unemployment rate.

“The president’s own policies have clearly failed the American people,” Bachmann said. “The answer is not to double-down and continue to do more of the same. The answer is to work on what went wrong, to reverse course and have a pro-growth job agenda.”

The $800 billion did what it did- it added $800 billion in income and nominal savings to the economy- to the penny. It’s an accounting identity. If it didn’t add exactly $800 billion the accountants at the CBO would have to stay late and find their arithmetic mistake.

In fact, all entire deficit spending adds that much nominal savings to the economy. That’s where all the increased savings has come from. You could change the label of those deficit clocks to ‘world dollar savings’ and leave the numbers alone.

And note that treasury securities are functionally nothing more than savings accounts at the Fed.

Defying consensus estimates that the economy had merely hit a soft patch and was on its road to recovery, the latest jobs news instead shows just 18,000 jobs created in June and the unemployment rate when taking into consideration those not looking for work at 16.2 percent.

Right, the problem is the deficit is too small. I’ve proposed a full FICA suspension, federal revenue distributions to the state govts of $500 per capita, and an $8/hr federally funded transition job to anyone willing and able to work to facilitate the transition from unemployment to private sector employment.

Bachmann’s campaign has caught fire as polls show her in a virtual dead heat in Iowa with presumptive front-runner Mitt Romney.

In her live interview, Bachmann focused on the voices she has heard while campaigning and the angst among business owners about how Washington policies have hindered business growth.

“I have talked to business owners all across the nation,” she said. “They’re really paralyzed with fear right now. This won’t help hearing (the unemployment news) because it shows that Washington doesn’t have the solution.”

Agreed!

She spoke as Congress and the White House are locked in debate over whether to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. Bachmann dodged a question over whether the failure to increase the borrowing limit while drastically cutting spending would raise unemployment, but she said more taxes certainly aren’t the answer, either.

“We need to fundamentally restructure how government does spending,” she said. “We’re still operating under the principles of FDR and LBJ. We need to move into the 21st century so we embrace pro-growth policies. Unfortunately they’re tone deaf here in Washington, D.C. They think government is the answer, and the American people know it’s not true.”

I watched her explain how if they just do spending cuts to balance the budget that will create jobs in the long term. What she fails to understand is that with all of our ‘demand leakages’ and tighter lending standards, spending cuts have to be at least matched by tax cuts to not add to unemployment, and tax cuts have to be substantially larger than spending cuts to add to demand and reduce unemployment.

It’s a shame, because with the tea party standing for ‘taxed enough already’ the tea party candidates continue to propose balanced budgets that continue to grossly over tax us.

It’s also a shame that no one in the media has the knowledge of actual monetary operations to expose the gaping flaws in her logic. In fact, the have the same fundamental misunderstanding and tend to agree with her, including the entirely inapplicable analogy that we are in danger of becoming the next Greece.

So current odds have to favor her for the presidential nomination.

And only MMT stands between her and the presidency.

Obama links debt ceiling debate to unemployment

And when they agree to the deficit cuts, then unemployment will fall…

“The sooner we get this done, the sooner that the markets know that the debt limit ceiling will have been raised and that we have a serious plan to deal with our debt and deficit, the sooner that we give our businesses the certainty that will need in order to make additional investments to grow and hire,” Obama said.

He made his remarks just hours after the government reported anemic job growth for June and a new, higher unemployment rate of 9.2 percent.

Consumer Borrowing Rises $5.1 billion

Down a bit from April, but the larger question is whether higher gasoline prices led to more borrowing to buy what previously was bought from income.

Yes, savings is growing, but that is mainly in the form of reduced and unwanted private sector debt, and not dollars in savings accounts.

Consumer Borrowing Rises for Eighth Straight Month

July 8 (AP) — Americans borrowed more in May for the eighth straight month and used their credit cards more for only the second time in nearly three years.

The Federal Reserve says consumer borrowing rose $5.1 billion following a revised gain of $5.7 billion in April. Borrowing in the category that covers credit cards increased, as did borrowing in the category for auto and student loans.

The increase in credit card borrowing marked only the second monthly gain since August 2008. Since the financial crisis, consumers have been cutting back on the use of credit cards, which has depressed economic growth because it has held back consumer spending.

Valance Weekly Economic Reports

When I look at the charts in general things do not look good, and today’s employment report looks like more of same as well.

The problem remains a massive lack of aggregate demand.

Valance Weekly Report

Highlights
US – Manufacturing confidence rebounds
EU – Consumer Prices held at 2.7% in June
JN – Q2 Tankan Survey weak; BoJ reports regional improvements
UK – Mfg PMI followed the global trend
CA – Real GDP stalled in April
AU – RBA held rates still but turned dovish
NZ – Business surveys were upbeat

China Foreign Debt Rises to $586 Billion at End of March

Back door subtraction from reserves:

China Foreign Debt Rises to $586 Billion at End of March

July 7 (Bloomberg) — China’s outstanding overseas borrowing increased to $586 billion at the end of March from $548.9 at the end of last year, according to a statement posted to the website of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Outstanding medium- and long-term debt was $174.3 billion at the end of March, rising from $173.2 billion at the end of 2010, according to the administration. Short-term debt was $411.7 billion, increasing from $375.7 billion.

France reports record trade gap in May

The overall trade picture continues to appear to be ‘deteriorating’ and could be removing fundamental support for the euro.

Yes, German net exports remain firm, but it’s the euro zone as a whole that drives the value of the euro.

And higher prices for imported energy could be hurting the euro zone more than the US, as they import their natural gas as well and pay more for it.

France reports record trade gap in May

July 7 (Xinhua via COMTEX) — Sluggish exports and soaring costs of imported petroleum products drove higher France’s trade deficit to a record of 7.42 billion euros (10.61 billion U.S. dollars) in May, customs figures showed on Thursday.

For the past 12 months, the cumulated trade deficit widened to 63.41 billion euros in total compared to 51.55 billion euros in 2010.

“As in April, the trade deficit exceeded seven billion euros. It worsened due to double effects of surging imports, notably energy, and of sluggish exports …” French customs said in a statement.

The country’s total imports stood at 41.6 billion, up from 41.47 billion euros reported in April as purchases of refined products remained high and imports of natural hydrocarbons grew.

At the end of May, France reported a slight drop in its sales abroad to 34.17 billion euros on the back of lower sales of Airbus.

The giant aero group garnered 1.33 billion euros after selling 21 aircrafts versus 26 worth 1.7 billion euros in April, but during the week-long Paris Airshow in June, Airbus reported record orders for a total of 730 aircraft worth 72.2 billion U.S. dollars.