CH News

Check out the property story below.

And they do seem very worried about inflation.

Not sure if they can control it without triggering a crash.

Maybe.

China’s Stocks Have ‘Corrected Enough,’ BofA Says
China’s Monthly Car-Sales Growth Slows Amid Inflation
China Think Tank Sees 4.2% Inflation, Urges Yuan Flexibility
‘Measures to cool property already working’
New loans set to grow in April


‘Measures to cool property already working’ (China Daily) The skyrocketing prices of property could harm the financial security and social stability of the nation, Qi Ji, vice-minister of housing and urban-rural development, said. “Excessive gains in prices are mainly due to a shortage of supply, and a major part of the demand for housing is due to unreasonable demand,” Qi said. “The government will strictly carry out current measures to curb such demands,” he said. Hangzhou, capital of eastern Zhejiang province, saw a 72.55-percent month-on-month plunge in properties sold during the week ending April 25. Beijing witnessed a 45-percent fall in property sales, while in Shanghai the drop was 38 percent, according to China Index Research Institute. EverGrande Real Estate is reportedly offering a 15-percent discount to push sales of apartments in one of its housing developments in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province.
New loans set to grow in April

New loans set to grow in April(China Daily) Analysts expect new loans to exceed 600 billion yuan ($87.88), or even top 700 billion yuan, in April, after dipping to 510.7 billion yuan in the previous month. The central bank is scheduled to release April lending figures next week. Mounting inflationary pressure and asset bubble risks are clouding the Chinese economy this year after nearly 9.6 trillion yuan in new loans flooded into the market in the previous year. The central bank revived the lending quota mechanism, a method to cope with economic overheating in early 2008, to help contain credit growth. To this end, Chinese lenders are allowed to give out roughly 2.25 trillion yuan in new loans in the second quarter, accounting for 30 percent of the 7.5 trillion yuan target set by the authority. In the first three months, more than one third of the 2.6 trillion yuan in new loans was directed to real estate developers and homebuyers.

EU lends to itself to bail itself out – ECB remains sidelined

“While each component makes sense in its own narrow terms, the EU policy as a whole is madness for a currency union. Stephen Lewis from Monument Securities says Europe’s leaders have forgotten the lesson of the “Gold Bloc” in the second phase of the Great Depression, when a reactionary and over-proud Continent ground itself into slump by clinging to deflationary totemism long after the circumstances had rendered this policy suicidal. We all know how it ended.”

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The meeting took 14 hours and produced numbers large enough and rhetoric credible enough to trigger today’s short covering that might continue at least through half of tomorrow.

But all the actual announced funding comes from the same nations that are having the funding issues. There is no external funding of consequence of national govt borrowing needs coming any source other than the euro governments, nor can there be, as the the funding needs are in euro. And the ECB, the only entity that can provide the euro zone with the needed net financial assets, remains limited to ‘liquidity’ provision which does not address the core funding issue.

Yes, the funding needs have been move evenly distributed among the national governments. But even the financially strongest member, Germany, is structurally in need of continually borrowing increasing quantities of euro to roll over existing debt and fund continuing deficits, with no foreseeable prospects of even stabilizing its debt to GDP ratio or debt to revenue ratio. Adding this new financing burden only makes matters worse, and do the austerity measures now under way in all the member nations.

The one bright spot is the ‘whatever it takes’ language that presumably includes the only move that can make it work financially- actual funding of national govt. debt by the ECB either directly or indirectly through guarantees. But there can be no assurance, of course, that it’s just another bluff to buy time, hoping for a large enough increase in net exports which would be evidence of the rest of the world deciding to reduce its euro net financial assets via the purchase of goods and services from the euro zone.

And with a meaningful increase in exports likely to happen in a meaningful way only with a much lower euro, the terms and conditions of today’s announcements introduce conflicting forces. The austerity measures work to strengthen the euro to the extent they succeed, and to weaken it to the extent they result in increased national govt debt and changes in portfolio preferences.

My best guess is that market forces will soon be testing this new package and its core weaknesses.

ECB decides on measures to address severe tensions in financial markets

10 May 2010 – ECB decides on measures to address severe tensions in financial markets

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) decided on several measures to address the severe tensions in certain market segments which are hampering the monetary policy transmission mechanism and thereby the effective conduct of monetary policy oriented towards price stability in the medium term. The measures will not affect the stance of monetary policy.

Agreed.

In view of the current exceptional circumstances prevailing in the market, the Governing Council decided:

1. To conduct interventions in the euro area public and private debt securities markets (Securities Markets Programme) to ensure depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional. The objective of this programme is to address the malfunctioning of securities markets and restore an appropriate monetary policy transmission mechanism. The scope of the interventions will be determined by the Governing Council.

This does not help with primary funding. It reads like it’s about defining acceptable collateral.

In making this decision we have taken note of the statement of the euro area governments that they “will take all measures needed to meet [their] fiscal targets this year and the years ahead in line with excessive deficit procedures” and of the precise additional commitments taken by some euro area governments to accelerate fiscal consolidation and ensure the sustainability of their public finances.
In order to sterilise the impact of the above interventions, specific operations will be conducted to re-absorb the liquidity injected through the Securities Markets Programme. This will ensure that the monetary policy stance will not be affected.

This insures the overnight rate target is met.

2. To adopt a fixed-rate tender procedure with full allotment in the regular 3-month longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) to be allotted on 26 May and on 30 June 2010.

3. To conduct a 6-month LTRO with full allotment on 12 May 2010, at a rate which will be fixed at the average minimum bid rate of the main refinancing operations (MROs) over the life of this operation.

Setting term rates.

4. To reactivate, in coordination with other central banks, the temporary liquidity swap lines with the Federal Reserve, and resume US dollar liquidity-providing operations at terms of 7 and 84 days. These operations will take the form of repurchase operations against ECB-eligible collateral and will be carried out as fixed rate tenders with full allotment. The first operation will be carried out on 11 May 2010.

Unsecured dollar loans from the Fed to the ECB to be reloaned to member banks vs eligible collateral. This is to keep dollar libor at the Fed’s target rate. It’s a very high risk strategy for the Fed.

looks like IMF will be using their Stand-By arrangement

Looks like the plan is for a straight euro loan from the IMF to Greece:

“IMF support will be provided under a three-year €30 billion (about $40 billion)Stand-By Arrangement (SBA)—the IMF’s standard lending instrument. In addition, euro area members have pledged a total of €80 billion (about $105 billion) in bilateral loans to support Greece’s effort to get its economy back on track. Implementation of the program will be monitored by the IMF through quarterly reviews.”

FACTSHEET
IMF Stand-By Arrangement
November 23, 2009

In an economic crisis, countries often need financing to help them overcome their balance of payments problems. Since its creation in June 1952, the IMF’s Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) has been used time and again by member countries, it is the IMF’s workhorse lending instrument for emerging market countries. Rates are non-concessional, although they are almost always lower than what countries would pay to raise financing from private markets. The SBA was upgraded in 2009 to be more flexible and responsive to members countries’ needs. Borrowing limits were doubled with more funds available up front, and conditions were streamlined and simplified. The new framework also enables broader high-access borrowing on a precautionary basis.

Lending tailored to member countries’ needs

The SBA framework allows the Fund to respond quickly to countries’ external financing needs, and to support policies designed to help them emerge from crisis and restore sustainable growth.

Eligibility. All member countries facing external financing needs are eligible for SBAs subject to all relevant IMF policies. However, SBAs are generally used by middle income member countries more often, since low-income countries have a range of concessional instruments tailored to their needs.

Duration. The length of a SBA is flexible, and typically covers a period of 12–24 months, but no more than 36 months, consistent with addressing short-term balance of payments problems.

Borrowing terms. Access to IMF financial resources under SBAs are guided by a member country’s need for financing, capacity to repay, and track record with use of IMF resources. Within these guidelines, the SBA provides flexibility in terms of amount and timing of the loan to help meet the needs of borrowing countries. These include:

• Normal access. Borrowing limits were recently doubled to give countries access of up to 200 percent of quota for any 12 month period, and 600 percent of total credit outstanding (net of scheduled repurchases).

• Exceptional access. The IMF can lend amounts above normal limits on a case-by-case basis under its Exceptional Access policy, which entails enhanced scrutiny by the Fund’s Executive Board. During the current global economic crisis, countries facing acute financing needs have been able to tap exceptional access SBAs.

• Front-loaded access. The new SBA framework provides increased flexibility to front load funds where warranted by the strength of the country’s policies and the nature of its financing needs.

• Rapid access. Fund support under the SBA can be accelerated under the Fund’s Emergency Financing Mechanism, which enables rapid approval of IMF lending. This mechanism was utilized in several instances during the recent crisis.

Precautionary access. The new SBA framework has expanded the range of high access precautionary arrangements (HAPAs), a type of insurance facility against very large financing needs. Precautionary arrangements are used when countries do not intend to draw on approved amounts, but retain the option to do so should they need it. Three HAPAs, with Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala, were approved during the crisis.

Fewer conditions, focus on objectives

When a country borrows from the IMF, it agrees to adjust its economic policies to overcome the problems that led it to seek funding in the first place. These commitments, including specific conditionality, are described in the member country’s letter of intent (which often has a memorandum of economic and financial policies).

Building on earlier efforts, the IMF has further reformed the conditions of its lending to focus on criteria that are measurable and observable. These changes include:
Quantitative conditions. Member countries progress is monitored using quantitative program targets. Fund disbursements are tied to the observance of such targets. Examples include targets for international reserves and government deficits or borrowing, consistent with program goals.

Structural measures. The new SBA framework has eliminated structural performance criteria. Instead, progress in implementing structural measures that are critical to achieving the objectives of the program are assessed in a holistic way in the context of program reviews.

Frequency of reviews. Regular reviews by the IMF’s Executive Board play a critical role in assessing performance under the program and allowing the program to adapt to economic developments. The SBA framework allows flexibility in the frequency of reviews based on the strength of the country’s policies and the nature of its financing needs.

Lending terms

Repayment. Repayment of borrowed resources under the SBA are due within 3¼-5 years of disbursement, which means each disbursement is repaid in eight equal quarterly installments beginning 3¼ years after the date of each disbursement.

Lending rate. The lending rate is tied to the IMF’s market-related interest rate, known as the basic rate of charge, which is itself linked to the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) interest rate. Large loans carry a surcharge of 200 basis points, paid on the amount of credit outstanding above 300 percent of quota. If credit remains above 300 percent of quota after three years, this surcharge rises to 300 basis points, and is designed to discourage large and prolonged use of IMF resources.

Commitment fee. Resources committed under all SBAs are subject to a commitment fee levied at the beginning of each 12 month period on amounts that could be drawn in the period (15 basis points for committed amounts up to 200 percent of quota, 30 basis points on committed amounts above 200 percent and up to 1,000 percent of quota and 60 basis points on amounts exceeding 1,000 percent of quota). These fees are refunded if the amounts are borrowed during the course of the relevant period. As a result, if the country borrows the entire amount committed under an SBA, the commitment fee is fully refunded, while no refund is made under a precautionary SBA under which countries do not draw.

Service charge. A service charge of 50 basis points is applied on each amount drawn.