China News


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Highlights

China eases rules on forex advances

Domestics somehow caught short USD like the rest of the world?

More measures to spur consumption and foreign trade(Xinhua)

Help for both domestic consumption but exports as well- still pushing exports.

China to Raise Export Rebates, Use Yuan to Settle Some Trade

Pushing exports.

China Must Prevent Drastic Decline in Property Prices

China eases rules on forex advances

Exporters will be able to increase their advances on foreign-currency payments to 25 percent from the current 10 percent, the China Securities Journal reported on Wednesday.

The decision came in a circular issued by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on Tuesday night.

Importers’ quota for deferred foreign-currency payments also rose to 25 percent from 10 percent.

Analysts said the move would help small and medium-sized enterprises raise funds and improve their cash flow.

A banker who asked to remain unidentified told Xinhua the financial crisis has caused difficulties for many enterprises and this move would give them more operating capital.

The State Council, or China’s cabinet, urged a higher quota of foreign exchange advances to support trade during a standing committee conference on Dec 3.

SAFE official Cai Qiusheng was quoted by Tuesday’s Shanghai Securities News as saying that foreign exchange reserves were below their peak at $1.9 trillion as of the end of September.

According to the paper, enterprises that have good credit and haven’t violated any foreign-exchange regulations can qualify for the new limits.

To prevent “hot money” inflows through trade, SAFE, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued a joint circular on July 14 to step up supervision of cross-border capital flows.

The foreign exchange agency told administrative departments at all levels to step up inspection to prevent large-scale cash outflows.

More measures to spur consumption and foreign trade(Xinhua)

Updated: 2008-12-24 20:02BEIJING — More measures will be taken to stimulate consumption and support foreign trade, according to Wednesday’s executive meeting of China’s State Council, or the cabinet.

A document released after the meeting, chaired by Premier Wen Jiabao, said to stimulate domestic consumption, efforts should be made to improve the rural circulation network, increase varieties of commodities available in rural markets, improve urban community service-facilities, promote upgrade of durable goods, support development of circulation companies, stimulate consumption in holidays and through exhibitions, and step up supervision over product quality and safety.

In the fiscal year of 2009, the central government would increase its financial support for development of the rural circulation network and the service industry.

To sustain a stable growth in the country’s foreign trade, the central government would raise export tax rebates of high-tech and high-value-added products, adjust the forbidden and limited commodity catalogue of processing trade, encourage a transfer of processing trade from the eastern to the central and western region.

The government would also urge banks to improve services for foreign traders, increase imports of products needed, direct foreign funds to high-tech, energy-saving and modern service industries, simplify customs procedures and keep a close eye on the quality and safety of both imported and exported products.

China to Raise Export Rebates, Use Yuan to Settle Some Trade

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) –China will raise export rebates on some machinery and electronics and let some trade with Hong Kong, Macau and Southeast Asia be settled in yuan to help boost faltering overseas sales, the Cabinet said.

China will also expand the use of government money to develop foreign trade, the State Council announced today.

The pilot program for settling trade in yuan will take place in Guangdong province, eastern China’s Yangtze River Delta region, and Guangxi and Yunnan provinces, the statement said.

China Must Prevent Drastic Decline in Property Prices

Dec. 24 (Bloomberg) — China must prevent a drastic decline in property prices, the State Council said in a report to the nation’s parliament today, state-run China National Radio said on its Web site.

The government will increase construction of housing for low-income families and control excessive gains in land prices, the report said.


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Today’s Data


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Karim writes:

Last data before 12/30

  • Mtge apps up 48% last week (MBA reports record 83% of households looking to refi). Refi apps up 48.4% on the week, purchases 10.6%.

Lower interest rates now starting to help this sector, but at the expense of interest income for others. Much of this is offset by government, however, as the deficit continues to rise counter cyclically (the ugly way- lower revenues and higher transfer payments).

  • Initial claims rise 30k to new cycle high (and highest since 1982) of 586k; continuing claims drop 17k to 4370k

This may get a lot worse after the holidays.

  • Core PCE unch m/m and up 1.9% y/y (core inflation down 0.5% in 3mths; so much for the flat Philips curve).

Yes, but not all that big a move for a negative 7% quarter and a 70% drop in crude oil and large declines in other commodities.

  • Personal income down 0.2%, with wage and salary income down 0.1%.

Lower interest income biting.

  • Savings rate up to 2.8% from 0.8% 3mths ago

It’s not so much that people are saving as it is they are not borrowing, as total mortgage and other credit measures decline.

  • Personal spending down 0.6% m/m

Less than expected as lower fuel prices seem to be helping some.

  • Durable goods orders -1% (prior month revised from -6.2% to -8.4%) and up 4.7% ex-aircraft and defense (this measure was down 12.3% in prior 3mths so correction was expected).
  • Shipments (key for current qtr growth) down 2.6%

Falling fuel prices and automatic stabilizers increasing the federal deficit are beginning to have an effect, but this is a long, drawn out process that in the past has taken years to restore output and employment.

A full payroll tax holiday and maybe $300 billion in Federal revenue sharing with the states can cut that time frame down to months rather than years.

And, of course, without a plan to cut crude oil product consumption fuel prices can likewise quickly elevate.

The Fed is still obstructing bank functioning by demanding collateral from member banks when it lends. This is redundant and should be addressed at once.

Also, the Fed swap lines to foreign CB’s are again rising and approaching $700 billion. Not sure how this ends. Lines are scheduled to end in April, but hard to see this happening. It could turn out to be the largest international fiscal transfer of all time.


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ECB’s Hurley Says Euro Economy to Contract Next Year


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Several months back, the eurozone national governments fell into ‘Ponzi’ as growth prospects went negative.

They now seem to be in that downward spiral of falling revenues, rising transfer payments, and rising credit default premiums.

Without a fiscal response to restore growth this will only get worse, and the National governements are, by treaty and by market dependence, in no position to enact a meaningful fiscal expansion.

Highlights

Trichet Says Decline in Oil Prices Is Helping Global Economy
ECB’s Trichet Says ‘Fragility’ of Financial System Is Challenge
Nowotny Says ECB Is Keeping Some ‘Fire Power’ on Interest Rates
ECB’s Hurley Says Euro Economy to Contract Next Year
Bini Says ECB’s Rate Decision Data Driven, Ansa Says
Italy’s EU20 Billion Bank Plan Wins Approval From EU
Germany Scales Down Second Stimulus Package, Sueddeutsche Says
Sarkozy Will Announce Measures to Help Auto Industry by Jan. 31
European Bonds Open Little Changed; Two-Year Yield 1.75 Percent


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IMF warns of ‘disturbing’ UK debt


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IMF warns of ‘disturbing’ UK debt

The level of debt in the UK is “disturbing,” the head of the International Monetary Fund has said.

But Dominique Strauss-Kahn told the BBC that given the severity of the economic downturn, more government borrowing was the lesser of two evils.

No, he’s the greater evil. Another deficit terrorist.


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2008-12-24 USER


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MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 316.50
Prior 286.10
Revised n/a

 
Picking up with lower rates.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6758.60
Prior 4156.00
Revised n/a

 
Spiking with lower rates.

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Personal Income MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.1%

 
Lower than expected. Lower interest income continues to bite.

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Personal Income YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 3.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still up but lower interest income biting.

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Personal Income ALLX (Nov)

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Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 
Not good, but lower fuel prices helping other sales.

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PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Way down with the big drop in fuel costs.

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PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.0%

 
Back in the Fed’s comfort zone.

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Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -8.4%

 
A little better than expected but still in decline.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.6%
Prior -12.9%
Revised n/a

 
Big drop.

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.9%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual 1.2%
Prior -4.4%
Revised -6.8%

 
Bit of a blip up but nothing serious as prior revised lower.

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Durable Goods ALLX (Nov)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 20)

Survey 558K
Actual 586K
Prior 554K
Revised 556K

 
May get a lot worse after the holidays.

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Continuing Claims (Dec 13)

Survey 4410K
Actual 4370K
Prior 4384K
Revised 4387K

 
Likely to move up after the holidays.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 20)


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