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Archive for November 14th, 2008

Japan Daily: Machine Tool Orders Fall to Lowest in 4.5 Years

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th November 2008


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Nothing an appropriate fiscal package couldn’t immediately turn around.

Fortunately for us, they never have been big on supporting domestic demand.

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>   On Fri, Nov 14, 2008 at 6:40 AM, Davin wrote:
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  • Machine Tool Orders Down 40% In Oct, Falling Under Y100bn
  • 5 of 8 Homebuilders Cut FY08 Sales Projections
  • Steel Customers Unlikely To Accept Price Hikes
  • Used-Car Registrations Down 5.3% In Oct, 20-Year Low For Month
  • Govt To Keep Civil Servant Salaries, Bonuses Unchanged For FY08
  • New Power Station Puts Damper On Wholesale Electricity Market
  • OECD: Japan Will Enter A Period Of Deflation
  • Nissan To Cut Japan Output By 72,000 Vehicles From Dec
  • Forex: Dollar Sinks To Upper Y96 Range Ahead Of Financial Summit
  • Stocks: Snap 3-Day Losing Streak On Wall St Rise, But Upside Capped

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Posted in Japan | No Comments »

Plosser and interest rates

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th November 2008


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“There are all sorts of technical ramifications when the fed funds rate goes towards zero. There are a lot of questions we’re going to have to grapple with going forward,” Plosser told reporters after a speech at the Economic Club of Pittsburgh. “You have to think about what this means for policy, market functioning, how we manage reserves.”

Yes, about time they thought about how reserve accounting works. They don’t have a clue. There are no operational issues.

But this does mean they may be reluctant to cut to zero.


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Posted in Interest Rates | 3 Comments »

Re: Sarkozy Pushes for Abandonment of Dollar as World Reserve Currency

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th November 2008


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(email exchange)

The dollar is a world reserve currency only because we are the only ones who ‘allow’ a trade deficit.

With a trade deficit, the rest of world is long your currency.

With a trade surplus, like japan, the world is short your currency.

The eurozone wants a trade surplus and to be a reserve currency.

They are either ignorant of how a monetary system works or have the arrogance of demanding the violation of an accounting identity by decree???

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>   On Fri, Nov 14, 2008 at 12:15 AM, Russell wrote:
>   
>   If True … hyper inflation in the pipe.
>   

Sarkozy Pushes for Abandonment of Dollar as World Reserve Currency

French President Nicolas Sarkozy said on Thursday ahead of the G20 meeting of world leaders:

“I am leaving tomorrow for Washington to explain that the dollar cannot claim to be the only currency in the world…, that what was true in 1945 can no longer be true today”.

There have been many previous indications that the dollar would not remain the world’s reserve currency for long. But this is a dramatic statement by a close American ally.

Reading between the lines, I am guessing that Sarkozy is pushing for a shift from the dollar to a basket of currencies as a world reserve standard, instead of a change to a single currency such as the Euro or the Yuan.

But we’ll have to wait and see what Sarkozy is really advocating.


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Posted in Articles, Currencies, EU | 5 Comments »

Fed swap lines up to $615 billion!

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th November 2008


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Outstanding advances under Fed ‘unlimited’ swap lines to the 4 foreign CB’s plus several lines with limits no totals $615 billion and accelerating!


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Posted in Credit, Fed | 21 Comments »

2008-11-14 USER

Posted by WARREN MOSLER on 14th November 2008


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Import Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -4.4%
Actual -4.7%
Prior -3.0%
Revised -3.3%

 
Decelerating rapidly!

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Import Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey 8.2%
Actual 6.7%
Prior 14.5%
Revised 13.6%

 
Decelerating rapidly!

Karim writes:

Price pressures continue to fall sharply:

  • Import prices -4.7% m/m; -0.9% m/m ex-petroleum; yr/yr slows from 13.6% to 6.7%
  • Prices of industrial supplies -25.1% over past 3mths
  • Import prices from China -0.3% over past 2mths

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Import Price Index ALLX 1 (Oct)

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Import Price Index ALLX 2 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales (Oct)

Survey -2.1%
Actual -2.8%
Prior -1.2%
Revised -1.3%

 
This is a severe dropoff!

Karim writes:

Largest ever monthly drop in U.S. retail sales:

  • -2.8% m/m headline, -2.2% ex-autos, -1.5% ex-gas (prior mth headline revised from -1.2% to -1.3%)
  • 3mth annualized rate of change in headline now at -10.9%; yr/yr change -3.3%

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Advance Retail Sales YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.1%
Prior -1.1%
Revised n/a

 
Looks very bad!

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 1 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 2 (Oct)

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Advance Retail Sales TABLE 3 (Oct)

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Retail Sales Less Autos (Oct)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -2.2%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.5%

 
Same!

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Business Inventories MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.2%

 
Interesting drop- not recession like at all.

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Business Inventories YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 5.5%
Prior 6.3%
Revised n/a


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Posted in Daily | No Comments »