[Skip to the end]

The Fed and Treasury decided ‘the problem’ was the LIBOR/Fed funds spread and threw everything they had at it.

What finally did the trick was the Fed’s unlimited swap lines with the MOF, BOJ, ECB, and SNB.

Unfortunately that turned a technical problem into a fundamental problem, as I’ve previously described.

Back tracking to why they wanted LIBOR rates lower- they wanted to assist the mortgage market and consumer debt in general.

There were other ways to do this, such as my plan for uncollateralized lending to their own member banks where government already regulates and supervises all bank assets and insures bank deposits.

That would have eliminated the interbank market for Fed member banks.

Euro banks would have still been paying up for USD borrowings and been distorting LIBOR.

The next step would be to get the BBA to adjust the USD LIBOR basket to not include banks who had to pay substantially higher for funds than the US member banks.

(This is supposed to happen automatically but the BBA is dragging its feet as it did with Japan years ago.)

And this would have immediately gotten LIBOR and Fed funds back in sync.

Also, they could have expanded treasury funding for the agencies to make mortgages to member banks in general for the same purpose and lowered mortgage rates that way.

Point- lots of other/better/more sensible ways that don’t increase systemic risk than the policy of unlimited (and functionally unsecured) USD lending lines for foreign commercial banks.

The ‘cure’ seems a lot worse than the new problems it creates.

Note the euro falling fast…

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Credit Default Swaps

[top]

[Skip to the end]

The ECB raised its day tender rate to 2.75% today and got far fewer tenders, as USD market rates had gone below that in anticipation of lower rates.

But that should just mean the USD ‘market rates’ will rise to over that level and the USD borrowers will come back to the ECB in big size as it’s just a game of musical chairs

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Brown set to borrow more (FT)

By George Parker and Norma Cohen

Gordon Brown on Monday insisted the government would spend its way through the downturn. Mr Brown said Britain’s debt-to-gross domestic product ratio of 37.6 per cent was lower than main competitors – the eurozone average is 56.4 per cent – and could sustain higher borrowing. “It is because we cut the national debt over the past few years that we are able to do what is the right thing.” The £37.6bn half-year borrowing figure is the highest since the second world war in nominal terms, although relative to the size of the economy it is below that of the 1993/4 fiscal year, when John Major’s Tory government was fighting a recession. Treasury estimates of growth in tax receipts are far short of those forecast at the start of the fiscal year, rising at only 1.9 per cent year-on-year instead of the 5 per cent rate that had been expected.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

RLPC- European secondary loan prices breach 70 pct

By Zaina Espana

The low secondary loan prices reflect heavy forced selling by stressed investors that has also weighed on the battered LevX index of leveraged loan credit default swaps.

Around three billion euros of forced sales have flooded the thin and illiquid European secondary loan market in the last two weeks, several traders said.

The sales started with Icelandic banks’ portfolio sales and other European banks followed, but a portfolio sale from Sankaty last week marked a new phase of the selloff as managers of credit-driven collateralised loan obligation (CLO) vehicles started to throw in the towel, traders said.

Traders said Sankaty, the credit affiliate of private equity firm Bain Capital, put a $342 million portfolio of leveraged loans up for sale last Wednesday and fund manager Highland Capital followed in the United States with a $641 million portfolio of U.S. and European names.

Average bids on Europe’s top 40 leveraged loans have lost 225 basis points from last Friday’s level of 71.01 percent of face value to 68.76 on Monday, RLPC data shows.

While this madness continues, watch for results due out soon:

ECB Offers Banks Unlimited Dollars to Boost Lending (Update1)

By Christian Vits

(Bloomberg)- The European Central Bank offered banks unlimited amounts of dollars in two new tenders today as it steps up efforts to get financial institutions lending to each other again.

The Frankfurt-based central bank offered banks funds for 28 days via a currency swap in which it lends dollars against euros. In a separate tender with the same maturity, the ECB offered dollars against collateral at a fixed rate of 2.11 percent. In both cases it will fill all bids. Results will be published at 11 a.m. The loans start on Oct. 23 and mature Nov. 20.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

If growth continues to slow down this won’t be nearly enough to cover capital yet to be lost.

Also, with more slowing, the French deficit widens threatening their solvency and ability to fund:

France injects €10.5bn in the six largest banks; doubts about the 2009 GDP growth forecast

The French Finance Ministry said Monday night that the French government will inject E10.5 billion worth of fresh capital into the country’s six largest banks between now and the end of the year by purchasing subordinated debt securities.

Credit Agricole will get €3 billion, followed by BNP Paribas with €2.55 billion, Societe Generale with $1.7 billion and Credit Mutuel with €1.2 billion. Les Caisses d’Epargne will get €1.1 billion and Banques Populaires €950 million.

The banks have agreed to sell subordinated debt securities in those amounts, and they will carry a risk premium of about 400 basis points.

[top]

[Skip to the end]

• ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Released 7:45 EST)
• ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Released 7:45 EST)
• Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Released 8:55 EST)
• Redbook Store Sales MoM (Released 8:55 EST)
• ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Released 8:55 EST)

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Oct 21)

 
Slipping, but no collapse yet. Should be doing better with lower gas prices.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Oct 21)

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Oct 21)

 
Low but steady.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Oct 21)

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Oct 21)

[top]

[Skip to the end]

Wonder what Congress thinks of the CEO’s attitude toward ‘taxpayer money?’

Send this to your Congressmen, thanks!

• Fannie’s portfolio may grow $100B over next year, CEO says
• Fannie not going to look to maximize returns, CEO says: FMNU
• Fannie buying, guaranteeing $40B of new loans a month

[top]