Buy this book!


[Skip to the end]

Full Employment Abandoned

Shifting Sands and Policy Failures


by William Mitchell, Professor of Economics, Centre of Full Employment and Equity, University of Newcastle, Australia and Joan Muysken, Professor of Economics, CofFEE-Europe, University of Maastricht, The Netherlands

My review:

There are only 2 books that I know of that are ‘in paradigm’ and the other is Wray’s ‘Understanding Modern Money’ which I also highly recommend.

This new book by Bill Mitchell is also solidly ‘in paradigm’ and for those of you not all that interested in the details of unemployment per se I suggest beginning with ‘Part III’ which does an outstanding job of outlining the imperatives of non convertible currency which will serve you well in analyzing today’s markets. From monetary operations to fiscal measures, the mainstream economists and media continue to get it wrong. Bill lays down the fundamentals that can help you understand where the mainstream goes astray, and hopefully translate into you getting it right.

Regarding unemployment (aka the ‘output gap’ by today’s central bankers), it is readily acknowledge that inflation isn’t all that sensitive to changes in unemployment. In their words, “The good news is that the Phillips curve is flat. And the bad news is that the Phillips curve is flat.” The essence of what Bill proposes is that an employed labor bufferstock is a far superior price anchor than today’s labor bufferstock of unemployed. And this is one of those things that seems obvious and indeed is absolutely correct, yet entirely overlooked as a policy option.

So click and order a copy or two, jump to Part III, and then start at the beginning to get a leg up on where we are, how we got here, and what policy options are open- particularly a form of full employment that further supports output, growth, and price stability.

Then pass it around your office and send copies to your favorite members of Congress, thanks!

Order now: http://www.e-elgar.co.uk/Bookentry_Main.lasso?id=1188
 
 
Warren Mosler
 
 
 
[top][end]


Publisher’s Spiel:

“This book by William Mitchell and Joan Muysken is both important and timely. It deals with the issue of the abandonment of full employment as an objective of economic policy in the OECD countries. It argues persuasively that macroeconomic policy has been restrictive over the recent, and not so recent past, and has produced substantial open and disguised unemployment. But the authors show how a job guarantee policy can enable workers, who would otherwise be unemployed, to earn a wage and not depend on welfare support. If such a policy is fully supported by appropriate fiscal and monetary programmes, it can create a full employment with price stability, and which the authors label as a
Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Buffer Employment Ratio (NAIBER). This book is essential reading for any one wishing to understand how we can return to full employment as the normal state of affairs.”
-Philip Arestis, University of Cambridge, UK

Contents:

Part I: Full Employment: Changing Views and Policies

  1. The Full Employment Framework and its Demise
  2. Early Views on Unemployment and the Phillips Curve
  3. The Phillips Curve and Shifting Views on Unemployment
  4. The Troublesome NAIRU: The Hoax that Undermined Full Employment

Part II: Full Employment Abandoned: Shifting Sands and Policy Failures

  1. The Shift to Full Employability
  2. Inflation First: The New Mantra of Macroeconomics
  3. The Neglected Role of Aggregate Demand

Part III: The Urgency of Full Employment: Foundations for an Active Policy

  1. A Monetary Framework for Fiscal Policy Activism
  2. Buffer Stocks and Price Stability
  3. Conclusion: The Urgency of Full Employment References Index


[top]

( Commercial Paper + C&I ) * Outstanding


[Skip to the end]

Summation of Commercial Paper Outstanding AND Combined Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding

Combined commercial and industrial loans and commercial paper show a leveling off after the initial drop.

Back in mid 2006, I remember commenting that I thought the government deficit was no longer high enough (given everything else that was going on) to support the credit structure.

The last push up was largely a product of fraudulently obtained sub prime and Alt-A loans.


[top]

Reuters: Lehman cuts oil demand forecast


[Skip to the end]

Lehman cuts oil demand forecast

by Richard Valdmanis

(Reuters) Investment bank Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) said Wednesday it slashed its forecast for 2008 world oil demand growth due to a steeper-than-expected slowdown in energy consumption in the United States and other OECD countries.

Lehman added it believes the oil market is “approaching a tipping point” with prices expected to decline to an average of $90 a barrel in the first quarter of 2009.

“We now forecast annual oil demand for 2008 at 86.3 million barrels per day, a growth of 790,000 bpd from 2007. The growth has been revised down from projections of 1.5 million bpd in December,” Lehman said in a research note titled ‘Demand Demolition’.

If true, and non-Saudi supply remains about flat, Saudi production might fall to about 9 million bpd and the price would still remain wherever the Saudis set it.

There has been some talk that the Saudis may have agreed to lower prices after the last round of meetings with US officials. Could be, but with their output running within a million or two bpd of their total capacity, it seems doubtful they would do anything to increase demand before they have the excess capacity to meet it. But there could be other factors (including the US 7th fleet and concerns about a united Iran/Iraq threatening them) that might be influencing their decision. Only time and prices will tell. Should be more clear in a week or so.


[top]

2008-07-23 US Economic Releases


[Skip to the end]


MBA Mortgage Applications (Jul 18)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Index (Jul 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 335.6
Prior 359.7
Revised n/a

A zig down and looking soft. Tables below show largest drops are in applications for adjustable rate mortgages, particularly government mortgages.

Also, I recall JPM’s recent earnings report showed a substantial increase in consumer mortgage lending, which could be taking volume from the mortgage bankers surveyed in this report.

Housing may be leveling off and moving up some, but no signs of actual strength yet.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Index (Jul 18)

Survey n/a
Actual 1392.7
Prior 1474.9
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 1 (Jul 18)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 2 (Jul 18)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 3 (Jul 18)

[top][end]

MBA TABLE 4 (Jul 18)


[top]