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The CEO Economic Outlook Survey doesn’t look too bad.

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Highlights

Gotta love these kinds of headlines. Latin America had the strongest currencies in the world with their past inflations???

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Highlights

Euro Central bankers think that’s a good thing for their fight against inflation. Unemployment was getting far too low for comfort.

More than enough to warrant rate hikes.

Trying to add supply to labor markets to keep wages ‘well contained.’

Spain had been growing too fast for comfort for the inflation hawks

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Dubai commits $250 million to shariah commodity fund

by Pratima Desai

(Reuters) A Dubai government agency said on Thursday it committed $250 million (127 million pounds) to a shariah compliant fund investing in a range of commodity hedge funds, a move that will open the way for other Islamic investors.

More efficient to leave it in the ground than pump it out and buy it back?

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• Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
• Continuing Jobless Claims (Released 8:30 EST)
• Philadelphia Fed Survey (Released 10:00 EST)
• Leading Indicators MoM (Released 10:00 EST)
• Leading Indicators YoY (Released 10:00 EST)

Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 14)

Holding in the ‘new’ range, far from recession levels, not getting worse. Not bad population adjusted, and fiscal package just now kicking in.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 7)

Spike may be over with fiscal package kicking in, too early to tell.

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Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jun)

Worse than expected, still looks to be moving off the bottom, weakness and higher prices continues.

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Leading Indicators MoM (May)

Slightly positive. In line with modestly growing gdp forecasts.

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Leading Indicators YoY (May)

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(an email exchange)

On Wed, Jun 18, 2008 at 4:24 PM, Bob wrote:
>   
>   Warren,
>   
>   Do you have any view as to why the Saudi feel a high current oil price is in
>   their best long-term interests?

Not sure it is. They may have a political agenda of destabilizing the west.

The other possibility is that they know they have the only excess capacity, and are trying to get the price up cool demand so that they have a bit more ’slack’ to deal with real supply shocks.

>   Obviously they make more money in the short run with a higher price, but all oil
>   consuming countries will:
>   
>   1. Reduce consumption
>   
>   2. Legislate higher fuel economy requirements on new vehicles
>   
>   3. Accelerate development of alternative fuels (wind, solar, mining H3 from the
>   moon, etc.)
>   
>   4. Expand domestic production (given that high cost oil extraction methods are
>   viable)
>   
>   5. Expand domestic production (e.g., Bush & McCain seeking access to outer
>   continental shelf)

Yes, and that would mean Saudi exports would fall, which also might be a good thing for them if they plan on increasing domestic consumption.

>   I would assume the objective function (in an operations research sense) would
>   be to maximize the total revenue earned on the sale of all oil in their
>   possession.

Yes, though the current King is probably over 80 years old and may have other agendas, as above.

>   It would seem to me the current effort to push up the prices could be
>   short-sighted for it may backfire if it brings more supply online, generates
>   research which produces a breakthrough in alternative energy development, or
>   radically reduces demand.
>   
>   Bob
>   

Yes, might be the case. But sure seems like that’s what they are doing!

warren

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