Spain’s Valencia Struggles To Repay Debt

Note how ‘currency users’ are limited to relatively low levels of debt by markets:

Valencia’s total outstanding debt at the end of 2011 was EUR20.76 billion, equal to around 20% of its GDP.

Spain ran up it’s current national debt as a currency issuer when it not only didn’t matter financially with regards to funding and solvency, but it was, for all practical purposes, a requirement to accommodate non govt savings desires at desired levels of output and employment.

Spain, and the rest of the former currency issuers, then waltzed into the euro zone arrangements as currency users who all agreed to keep the same debt levels they had accumulated as currency issuers, rendering the euro arrangements ‘an accident waiting to happen’ from the get go.

Spain’s Valencia Struggles To Repay Debt

By Jonathan House and Art Patnaude

May 4 (Dow Jones) — Spain’s financially troubled Valencia region had to pay a punitive interest rate to roll over a short-term debt Friday, raising new concerns about its solvency and prompting the regional government to offer assurances it can avoid a default.

“We have covered our refinancing needs through June and we are planning on meeting our commitments,” a Valencia spokesman said.

Valencia had to offer institutional investors a 7% interest rate to roll over a EUR500 million debt for six months on Friday, a new sign of a deepening financial crisis for the regions that control over one third of spending in highly decentralized Spain. That’s more than four times what the Spain’s central government offered at its last auction of six-month treasury bills.

With a long history of overspending, Spain’s regions have moved to the center of the country’s fiscal crisis. As Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy tries to close yawning budget gaps at all levels of government and return the ailing local economy to growth, his government is scrambling to make sure the regions meet their financial obligations while reining in expenditures.

Spain had a general government budget deficit equal to 8.5% of gross domestic product in 2011, far in excess of the 6%-of-GDP target it had committed to with the European Union and international investors. Much of the overrun was the fault of the regions.

In recent months, the fiscally frail regions are facing increasing difficulty in financing themselves. International investors are steering clear. “There’s still a great deal of reluctance from institutional investors to get involved in Spain. The uncertainties are a bit too big,” said Elisabeth Afseth, fixed-income analyst at Investec Bank in London.

Valencia, on Spain’s Mediterranean coast, is one of the most troubled of its 17 regions. With its hundreds of kilometers of beachfront properties, it is ground zero for the collapse of the Spain’s housing industry, which has punched a large hole in national tax revenue and sent the economy into a long slump. The housing bust, coupled with years of high spending, has made Valencia one of the most indebted regions.

Valencia’s total outstanding debt at the end of 2011 was EUR20.76 billion, equal to around 20% of its GDP.

Late last year, Moody’s Investor Service downgraded Valencia’s credit to junk status and the central government had to advance Valencia some of its regular financing to prevent it from defaulting on a EUR123 million debt to Deutsche Bank AG (DB). In Spain, most tax revenue is collected by the central government.

Since then, Rajoy’s government, which came to power in December, has strengthened financial support for the regions and said it won’t let any default on their obligations. It set up an EUR10 billion credit facility they can draw on to refinance their debts and is offering EUR35 billion worth of loans to help them pay off debts to suppliers.

The Valencia spokesman said his region has received EUR2.69 billion from the credit facility that will allow it to meet all its debt obligations in the first half of the year. In addition, Valencia and other regions are pushing hard to get Madrid agree to guarantee their debts, which should help lower borrowing costs, he added.

Valencia has to refinance EUR4.5 billion worth of debt this year.

Spanish Banks Face Bond Losses in LTRO Aftermath: David Powell

Looks like it was at least the Spanish banks that got the nod to buy their govt’s bonds when the LTRO was announced.

Problem is they can only buy them to the extent their capital allows, and as raising more capital isn’t happening, it was probably a one time buying binge.

That’s why subsequent LTRO’s won’t do much for banks whose capital is already fully extended.

And losses serve to weaken their capital positions.

Spanish Banks Face Bond Losses in LTRO Aftermath: David Powell

By David Powell

April 11 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank may have pushed the Spanish banking system closer to collapse through its three-year longer-term refinancing operations.

Banks in Spain have been saddled with losses of about 1.6 billion euros as a result of the liquidity operation conducted in December, according to Bloomberg Brief estimates. Spanish lenders purchased 45.7 billion euros of government bonds during the months of December, January and February, according to monthly data from the ECB, and the average of the current prices of two-, six- and 10-year government bonds of Spain is 3.5 percent below the average of the average of those prices from Dec. 22 to March 1. [Note: The prices for six-year bonds are used instead of those for five-year bonds because the price history for the current five-year generic government bond of Italy starts only in January.]

International assistance will probably be needed to break the cycle. Spanish sovereign yields surged last year as investors worried about the solvency of the state given unrecognized losses in the banking system linked to the real estate bubble. Interest rates later declined after Spanish lenders purchased government debt during those three months, probably with the proceeds of the first three-year longer-term refinancing operation. Those purchases are now creating additional losses for the banking system.

The losses stemming from those bonds were essentially transferred to the domestic banking system from private bondholders with the assistance of the central bank.

The damage may be mitigated by low levels of margin calls from the ECB. Deposits related to margin calls at the central bank totaled only 0.3 billion in the week ended April 4, according to the Eurosystem’s weekly financial statement.

That suggests commercial lenders posted assets as collateral that have maintained their values. Those probably consisted primarily of the “residential mortgages and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)”, which the central bank said were eligible for use in its Dec. 8 statement. Those illiquid assets may be unaffected by the mark-to-market process because there are no developed markets for them. The deposits related to margin calls probably would have risen if banks had posted government bonds as collateral.

The situation for financial institutions in Italy is less dire than for those in Spain. Italian government bond prices on average are 2.1 percent above the distressed levels at which they traded from Dec. 22 to March 1. That suggests Italian banks may be sitting on profits of about 425 million euros after they purchased 20.3 billion euros of government bonds during that period.

Losses for both banking systems would probably have been created if they purchased government bonds with the proceeds of the second three-year longerterm refinancing operation. The funds from the second auction are excluded from this analysis because it settled on March 1 and the latest data from the ECB on government bond purchases of euro-area banks runs through the end of February. The data for March will be released on April 30.

As Ronald Reagan quipped, “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: ‘I’m from the government and I’m here to help.'”

CNBC’s John Carney on Krugman and MMT

>   
>   (email exchange)
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>   On Sat, Nov 12, 2011 at 2:19 PM, Stephanie wrote:
>   
>   John Carney loving on us again

Yes!

Paul Krugman Goes MMT on Italy

By John Carney

November 11 (CNBC) — It seems pretty clear that the school of thought known as Modern Monetary Theory has made a big impact on Paul Krugman’s thinking.

As Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capitalism points out, just a few months ago the spread between bonds issued by Japan and Italy, which have similar debt and demographic issues, was perplexing Krugman.

“A question (to which I don’t have the full answer): why are the interest rates on Italian and Japanese debt so different? As of right now, 10-year Japanese bonds are yielding 1.09%; 10-year Italian bonds 5.76%.

…I actually don’t have a firm view. But it seems to be an important puzzle to resolve.”

But today’s column is basically right out of MMT.

“What has happened, it turns out, is that by going on the euro, Spain and Italy in effect reduced themselves to the status of Third World countries that have to borrow in someone else’s currency, with all the loss of flexibility that implies. In particular, since euro-area countries can’t print money even in an emergency, they’re subject to funding disruptions in a way that nations that kept their own currencies aren’t — and the result is what you see right now. America, which borrows in dollars, doesn’t have that problem.”

2008-06-19 EU News Highlights


[Skip to the end]

Highlights

Italian Unemployment Rate Rises for First Time Since 2003

Euro Central bankers think that’s a good thing for their fight against inflation. Unemployment was getting far too low for comfort.

France’s Woerth Maintains Economic Growth Forecast at 1.7%-2%

More than enough to warrant rate hikes.

French government wants more work hours

Trying to add supply to labor markets to keep wages ‘well contained.’

Zapatero Says Spain Suffering an ‘Abrupt Slowdown’

Spain had been growing too fast for comfort for the inflation hawks


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