Tag Archives: Philadelphia Fed.

2009-04-16 USER

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Housing Starts (Mar)

Survey 540K
Actual 510K
Prior 583K
Revised 572K

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Building Permits (Mar)

Survey 549K
Actual 513K
Prior 547K
Revised 564K

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Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 11)

Survey 660K
Actual 610K
Prior 654K
Revised 663K

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Continuing Claims (Apr 4)

Survey 5893K
Actual 6022K
Prior 5840K
Revised 5850K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Apr 11)

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Philadelphia Fed (Apr)

Survey -32.0
Actual -24.4
Prior -35.0
Revised n/a

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Apr)

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Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Apr)


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2009-03-19 USER

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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14)

Survey 655K
Actual 646K
Prior 654K
Revised 658K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 12k to 646k (prior week revised up 4k)

  • Continuing claims rise another 185k to 5473k, +349k in last 2 weeks and more than double Jan 2008 level

  • Continuing claims correlated to longer duration of unemployment, drawing down of savings (assuming expenses greater than jobless benefit), and less pressure on wages

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Continuing Claims (Mar 7)

Survey 5323K
Actual 5473K
Prior 5317K
Revised 5288K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 7)

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Leading Indicators (Feb)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.1%

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Feb)

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Philadelphia Fed (Mar)

Survey -39.0
Actual -35.0
Prior -41.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed headline (not a wtd avg of components) improves from -41.3 to -35

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Mar)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Mar)


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    2009-02-19 USER

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    Producer Price Index MoM (Jan)

    Survey 0.3%
    Actual 0.8%
    Prior -1.9%
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

    • PPI up 0.8% and 0.4% core; core boosted by some annual one-offs (prescriptions at 1.1% and tobacco at 0.6%)
    • Pipeline pressures continue to decline; intermediate -0.7% and core intermediate -1.1%; crude -2.9% and core crude 0.1%

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    PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Jan)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.4%
    Prior 0.2%
    Revised n/a

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    Producer Price Index YoY (Jan)

    Survey -2.4%
    Actual -1.0%
    Prior -0.9%
    Revised n/a

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    PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Jan)

    Survey 3.8%
    Actual 4.2%
    Prior 4.3%
    Revised n/a

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 14)

    Survey 620K
    Actual 627K
    Prior 623K
    Revised 627K

     
    Karim writes:

    • Initial claims remain unch at 627k (prior week revised up 4k)
    • Continuing claims up 170k to new cycle high

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    Continuing Claims (Feb 7)

    Survey 4830K
    Actual 4987K
    Prior 4810K
    Revised 4817K

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Feb 14)

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    Leading Indicators (Jan)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.4%
    Prior 0.3%
    Revised 0.2%

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Jan)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Feb)

    Survey -25.0
    Actual -41.3
    Prior -24.3
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

    • Philly Fed confirms Empire survey earlier this week that rate of decline in manufacturing is accelerating.
    • Headline activity, orders, shipments, and employment all fall sharply

    Feb 2009 Jan 2009 Dec 2008 Nov 2008 Oct 2008 Sept 2008 Aug 2008 6 month avg
    General Business Activity -41.3 -24.3 -36.1 -39.8 -38.7 1.9 -20.1 -29.7
    Prices Paid -13.7 -27.0 -25.5 -26.6 10.2 32.5 53.0 -8.4
    Prices Received -27.8 -26.2 -32.8 -11.3 5.0 15.1 25.1 -13.0
    New Orders -30.3 -22.3 -28.2 -29.3 -30.6 3.8 -15.2 -22.8
    Shipments -32.4 -16.7 -29.7 -19.3 -17.6 -1.3 -6.1 -19.5
    # of Employees -45.8 -39.0 -28.6 -23.8 -19.2 -3.2 -4.6 -26.6

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Feb)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Feb)


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    2009-01-15 USER

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    Producer Price Index MoM (Dec)

    Survey -2.0%
    Actual -1.9%
    Prior -2.2%
    Revised n/a

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    PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Dec)

    Survey 0.1%
    Actual 0.2%
    Prior 0.1%
    Revised n/a

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    Producer Price Index YoY (Dec)

    Survey -1.1%
    Actual -0.9%
    Prior -0.4%
    Revised n/a

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    PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Dec)

    Survey 4.1%
    Actual 4.3%
    Prior 4.2%
    Revised n/a

     
    Karim writes:

    • PPI -1.9% m/m and now -0.9% y/y; core +0.2%; consumer goods category -2.6% m/m
    • Pipeline pressures continue to plunge: core intermediate goods -3% m/m and core crude -2.2%
    • Lots of Asian indicators suggesting price pressures will continue to plummet, especially in manufacturing
    • Japan machine tool orders – 72% y/y
    • Taiwan exports -42% y/y
    • Korean GDP -16% annualized in Q4!

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 10)

    Survey 503K
    Actual 524K
    Prior 467K
    Revised 470K

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    Continuing Claims (Jan 3)

    Survey 4620K
    Actual 4497K
    Prior 4611K
    Revised 4612K

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 10)

     
    Karim writes:

    • Initial claims up 54k to 524k as number reverts back to pre-holiday levels
    • Continuing claims drop 115k to 4497k; as duration of unemployment lengthens, this number may become more volatile as individuals exhaust their claims (unless benefits are extended, which might happen)

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Jan)

    Survey -25.00
    Actual -22.20
    Prior -25.76
    Revised -27.88

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 1 (Jan)

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    Empire State Manufacturing Survey ALLX 2 (Jan)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Jan)

    Survey -35.0
    Actual -24.3
    Prior -32.9
    Revised -36.1

     
    Karim writes:

    • Philly Fed improves from -36.1 to -24.3, but remains well into contraction territory
    • Employment component falls from -28.6 to -39.1

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Jan)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Jan)


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    2008-12-18 USER

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)

    Survey 558K
    Actual 554K
    Prior 573K
    Revised 575K

     
    Down a bit but 4 week average still moving up.

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    Continuing Claims (Dec 6)

    Survey 4375K
    Actual 4384K
    Prior 4429K
    Revised 4431K

     
    Down a touch, but still going parabolic.

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 13)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Dec)

    Survey -40.5
    Actual -32.9
    Prior -39.3
    Revised n/a

     
    Better than expected, up a touch, but still at very low levels.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Dec)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Dec)

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    Leading Indicators (Nov)

    Survey -0.4%
    Actual -0.4%
    Prior -0.8%
    Revised -0.9%

     
    Still looking soft.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Nov)


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    2008-11-20 USER

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 15)

    Survey 505K
    Actual 542K
    Prior 516K
    Revised 515K

     
    Bad!

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    Continuing Claims (Nov 8)

    Survey 3900K
    Actual 4012K
    Prior 3897K
    Revised 3903K

     
    Bad!

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Nov 15)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Nov)

    Survey -35.0
    Actual -39.3
    Prior -37.5
    Revised n/a

     
    Deep into recession levels.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Nov)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Nov)

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    Leading Indicators (Oct)

    Survey -0.6%
    Actual -0.8%
    Prior 0.3%
    Revised 0.1%

     
    Keeps heading lower.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Oct)


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    2008-09-18 USER

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 13)

    Survey 440K
    Actual 445K
    Prior 445K
    Revised n/a

     
    Staying at the top of the new range since the extended benefit package went into force. And might be a touch high due to the hurricane.

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    Continuing Jobless Claims (Sep 6)

    Survey 3525K
    Actual 3478K
    Prior 3525K
    Revised 3533K

     
    Down a bit and better than expected but still on the high side.

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    Jobless Claims ALLX (Sep 13)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Sep)

    Survey -10.0
    Actual 3.8
    Prior -12.7
    Revised n/a

     
    Back to positive territory with an upside surprise.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE (Sep)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Sep)

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    Leading Indicators (Aug)

    Survey -0.2%
    Actual -0.5%
    Prior -0.7%
    Revised n/a

     
    Leading indicators down more than expected. This is largely a financial conditions indicator.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Aug)

    <

    Karim writes:

    • Initial claims rise 10k to new cycle of 455k but DOL states Gustav-related claims helped boost weekly rise.

    • 4wk avg rises to 445k from 440k.

    • Continuing claims fall 55k to 3478k, partially reversing prior weeks large 129k increase.

    • 4wk average of continuing rises from 3431k to 3461k.

    • Even if initial claims would have been lower ex-Gustav, recent trends in both IJC and CC reflect a faster pace of labor market deterioration.

    • Next month’s payrolls likely to be down more than 100k.


    • Activity index rises from -12.7 to 3.8.

    • Prices paid drop from 57.5 to 31.5.

    • Orders and shipments rise 17.5 and 5.9pts, respectively, both into modest positive position.

    • Employment component basically unch at -0.9.


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    2008-08-21 US Economic Releases

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

    Survey 440K
    Actual 432K
    Prior 450K
    Revised 445K

    Still high, even though lower than expected and last week revised down some. It will take a while before the effect of the new extended benefit program is altering the numbers.

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    Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 9)

    Survey 3405K
    Actual 3362K
    Prior 3417K
    Revised 3379K

    Also lower than expected and last week revised down, But still high and not showing any meaningful signs of a top.

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    Jobless Claims TABLE 1 (Aug 16)

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    Jobless Claims TABLE 2 (Aug 16)

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    Philadelphia Fed (Aug)

    Survey -12.6
    Actual -12.7
    Prior -16.3
    Revised n/a

    Still negative, but the rate of contraction seems to be declining.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Aug)

    Prices paid down some, but still way high.

    Employment improved to near flat.

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Aug)

    Workweek creeping up some.

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    Leading Indicators (Jul)

    Survey -0.2%
    Actual -0.7%
    Prior -0.1%
    Revised 0.0%

    Worse than expected. This is a domestic demand indicator that has been trending down for quite a while.

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    Leading Indicators ALLX (Jul)

    A lot of the specifics seem questionable regarding relevance.


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    2008-06-19 US Economic Releases

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    Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 14)

    Survey 375K
    Actual 381K
    Prior 384K
    Revised 386K

    Holding in the ‘new’ range, far from recession levels, not getting worse. Not bad population adjusted, and fiscal package just now kicking in.

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    Continuing Jobless Claims (Jun 7)

    Survey 3135K
    Actual 3060K
    Prior 3139K
    Revised 3136K

    Spike may be over with fiscal package kicking in, too early to tell.

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    Philadelphia Fed Survey (Jun)

    Survey -10.0
    Actual -17.1
    Prior -15.6
    Revised n/a

    Worse than expected, still looks to be moving off the bottom, weakness and higher prices continues.

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    Leading Indicators MoM (May)

    Survey 0.0%
    Actual 0.1%
    Prior 0.1%
    Revised n/a

    Slightly positive. In line with modestly growing gdp forecasts.

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    Leading Indicators YoY (May)

    Survey n/a
    Actual -1.8%
    Prior -1.8%
    Revised n/a


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    2008-05-15 US Economic Releases

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    2008-05-15 Initial Jobless Claims

    Initial Jobless Claims (May 10)

    Survey 370K
    Actual 371K
    Prior 365K
    Revised n/a

    Looks like it’s past the peak.

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    2008-05-15 Continuing Claims

    Continuing Claims (May 3)

    Survey 3035K
    Actual 3060K
    Prior 3020K
    Revised 3032K

    Looks like it’s not past the peak.

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    2008-05-15 Empire Manufacturing

    Empire Manufacturing (May)

    Survey 0.0
    Actual -3.2
    Prior 0.6
    Revised n/a

    Still off the bottom, needs another month to see where it’s going.

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    2008-05-15 Net Long-term TIC Flows

    Net Long-term TIC Flows (Mar)

    Survey $62.5B
    Actual $80.4B
    Prior $72.5B
    Revised $64.9B

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    2008-05-15 Total Net TIC Flows

    Total Net TIC Flows (Mar)

    Survey $67.5B
    Actual -$48.2B
    Prior $64.1B
    Revised $48.9B

    In general I expect these types of numbers to follow the trade gap down.

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    2008-05-15 Industrial Production

    Industrial Production (Apr)

    Survey -0.3%
    Actual -0.7%
    Prior 0.3%
    Revised 0.2%

    Still weak. Been weak for 50 years.

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    2008-05-15 Capacity Utilization

    Capacity Utilization (Apr)

    Survey 80.1%
    Actual 79.7%
    Prior 80.5%
    Revised 80.4%

    Weak, but not recession levels yet.

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    2008-05-15 Philadelphia Fed.

    Philadelphia Fed. (May)

    Survey -19.0
    Actual -15.6
    Prior -24.9
    Revised n/a

    2008-05-15 Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

    Philadelphia Fed. TABLE

    Perking up from low levels,
    prices high and moving higher

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    2008-05-15 NAHB Housing Market Index

    NAHB Housing Market Index (May)

    Survey 20
    Actual 19
    Prior 20
    Revised n/a

    Still off the lows and looking like a bottom to me.


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