2008-05-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on May 29, 2008 @ 5:59 pm (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP QoQ Annualized (Released 9:30 EST)
Personal Consumption (Released 9:30 EST)
GDP Price Index (Released 9:30 EST)
Core PCE QoQ (Released 9:30 EST)
Initial Jobless Claims (Released 9:30 EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 9:30 EST)
Help Wanted Index (Released 11:00 EST)

GDP QoQ Annualized (1Q P)

Survey	0.9%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	1.5%
Revised	1.7%

Staying clear of recession levels.
Looking like Q4 was the bottom of this move.

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Personal Consumption (1Q P)

Survey	1.0%
Actual	1.0%
Prior	1.0%
Revised	n/a

As expected,Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â not collapsing as feared, yet.

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GDP Price Index (1Q P)

Survey	2.6%
Actual	2.6%
Prior	2.6%
Revised	n/a

Not good, and pipeline pressures continuing to build.

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Core PCE QoQ (1Q P)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.1%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

A little better than expected.

But trend looking up.

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Initial Jobless Claims (May 24)

Survey	370K
Actual	372K
Prior	365K
Revised	368K

Seems to be leveling off.

Fiscal package should help.

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Continuing Claims (May 17)

Survey	3060K
Actual	3104K
Prior	3073K
Revised	3068K

Lagging indicator, still trending higher, but still far below recession levels.

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Help Wanted Index (Apr)

Survey	19
Actual	19
Prior	19
Revised	n/a

Indicator of soft jobs markets.

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2008-04-24 US Economic Releases

Posted on April 24, 2008 @ 8:57 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Durable Goods Orders (Released 8:30AM EST)
Initial Jobless Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
Continuing Claims (Released 8:30AM EST)
Help Wanted Index (Released 10AM EST)
New Home Sales (Released 10AM EST)

From Karim:

Initial claims down from 375k (revised from 372k) to 342k

Continuing claims down from 2999k (revised from 2984k) to 2934k

DGO ex-aircraft and defense unchanged and down -2% and -1% in Jan/Feb

Claims have been volatile lately due to seasonals, but if they were to somehow stabilize at these levels, would still be in line with 0 employment growth

Q1 business capex component of GDP likely to be negative (has never been a recession where business capex did not also contract)

IFO down from 104.8 to 102.4 and retail component down from -0.9 to -10.0

ECB Member Bonello returns fire to Weber:

On the basis of the data we have at hand and the ECB’s rationale for monetary policy strategy it is very difficult to make an argument for higher interest rates.

Durable Goods Orders (Mar)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	-0.3%
Prior	-1.7%
Revised	-0.9%

Durable Goods Orders YoY (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-4.2%
Prior	5.5%
Revised	n/a

Durables Ex Transportation (Mar)

Survey	0.5%
Actual	1.5%
Prior	-2.6%
Revised	-2.1%

Durable Goods TABLE

Not all that bad. Two month total above expectations as Feb revised to a smaller drop.

Not at recession levels, yet.

And fiscal package kicking in soon.

Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 19)

Survey	375K
Actual	342K
Prior	372K
Revised	375K

As suspected, from the jobless recovery to the full-employment recession.

Labor numbers soft but not all that bad. No where near recession levels, particularly population adjusted.

Continuing Claims (Apr 12)

Survey	2990K
Actual	2934K
Prior	2984K
Revised	2999K

A lagging indicator, now following initial claims lower.

Help Wanted Index (Mar)

Survey	20
Actual	19
Prior	21
Revised	n/a

Still going south, but a lagging indicator.

New Home Sales (Mar)

Survey	580K
Actual	526K
Prior	590K
Revised	575K

Sales still heading south.
Might be because production and inventories are down, and also subject to revisions next month.

New Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey	-1.7%
Actual	-8.5%
Prior	-1.8%
Revised	-5.3%

Number of New Homes for Sale (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	468K
Prior	473K
Revised	n/a

Actual inventories are down substantially, and remaining inventory is probably not highly desirable.

Looking for regional shortages in the spring/summer buying season to drive up prices.

New Home Sales Median Price (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	$227.6K
Prior	$244.2K
Revised	n/a

[comments]

New Home Sales Average Price (Mar)

Survey	n/a
Actual	$292.2K
Prior	$302.9K
Revised	n/a

[comments]

New Home Sales TABLE

2008-03-27 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 27, 2008 @ 9:22 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

GDP Annualized (4Q F)

Survey	0.6%
Actual	0.6%
Prior	0.6%
Revised	n/a

Personal Consumption (4Q F)

Survey	1.9%
Actual	2.3%
Prior	1.9%
Revised	n/a

Revised up to a very respectable number. And income remains positive, and employment is at high levels.

GDP Price Index (4Q F)

Survey	2.7%
Actual	2.4%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

A bit better than previously reported, but prices have subsequently gone much higher.

Core PCE QoQ (4Q F)

Survey	2.7%
Actual	2.5%
Prior	2.7%
Revised	n/a

The Fed is more concerned about this and the evidence food and energy is getting passed through from headline to core measures.

Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 22)

Survey	370K
Actual	366K
Prior	378K
Revised	375K

Continuing Claims (Mar 15)

Survey	2885K
Actual	2845K
Prior	2865K
Revised	2850K

Best guess:

The jobless recovery that morphed into the full employment recession now appears to be over with todayÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s jobless claims numbers leaning in the same direction as other data released earlier this week.

That does not mean the issues with the financial sector are all behind us – far from it.

It does mean the real economy has figured out how to move on with whatÃƒÂ¢Ã¢â€šÂ¬Ã¢â€žÂ¢s left of the financial sector.

Help Wanted Index (Feb)

Survey	20
Actual	21
Prior	21
Revised	22

[comments]

2008-01-31 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 31, 2008 @ 11:36 am (Thursday) by WARREN MOSLER

Personal Income (Dec)

Survey	0.4%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Personal Income TABLE

A bit better than expected, holding up reasonably well, as declining interest rates reduce interest income component.

Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey	0.1%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	1.1%
Revised	1.0%

Personal Spending TABLE

OK number after last month’s large increase.

Also holding up reasonably well, but trending modestly downward.

PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey	3.5%
Actual	3.5%
Prior	3.6%
Revised	n/a

Too high for the Fed, but hopefully it will come down to core.

PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey	0.2%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	n/a

Actual was 0.23%

PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey	2.2%
Actual	2.2%
Prior	2.2%
Revised	n/a

Fed OK with this number and should be OK next month as January 2007 was up 0.2%. After that, the 2007 numbers are 0.1%’s for a while; so, there’s a better chance of YoY increases after that.

Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 26)

Survey	319K
Actual	375K
Prior	301K
Revised	306K

Big jump up as expected by Karim.

4 week average about 325,000 likely return to pre-January trend of about 350,000 (See Karim’s report).

Not yet the stuff of recession.

Continuing Claims (Jan 19)

Survey	2685K
Actual	2716K
Prior	2672K
Revised	2669K

Moved back up some.

Also not yet the stuff of recession.

Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.8%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

Employment Cost Index YoY

Survey	n/a
Actual	3.3%
Prior	3.3%
Revised	n/a

As expected, Fed is OK with this, but may be giving it too much weight, as it may be the last inflation indicator to move in this cycle.

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey	52.0
Actual	51.5
Prior	56.6
Revised	56.4

Still above 50, not the stuff of recession yet.

Help Wanted Index (Dec)

Survey	20
Actual	22
Prior	21
Revised	n/a

Very small uptick from a very low level.

NAPM-Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey	n/a
Actual	58.0
Prior	62.0
Revised	n/a

No recession here, yet.

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2007-12-28 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 28, 2007 @ 4:23 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Chicago Purchasing Manager (Dec)

Survey	51.7
Actual	56.6
Prior	52.9
Revised	n/a

Graph Looks Ok.

New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey	717K
Actual	647K
Prior	728K
Revised	711K

New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey	-1.6%
Actual	-9.0%
Prior	1.7%
Revised	1.7%

Still heading south, but less impact on GDP.

Also, fewer homes are being built.

Existing home sales Monday will mean more.

And during the winter months, seasonally, fewer months are built and sold; so, small absolute changes get magnified.

Help Wanted Index (Nov)

Survey	23
Actual	21
Prior	23
Revised	22

Working its way lower in line with a still strong, but softening labor market.

Most recent plunge seems to be related to CNBC gloom and doom talk that started in August.

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2007-11-29 US Economic Releases

Posted on November 30, 2007 @ 3:29 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

GCP Annualized (3QP)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	3.9%
Revised	n/a

Keeps coming in above expectations.

Personal Consumption (3QP)

Survey	2.9%
Actual	2.7%
Prior	3.0%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

GDP Price Index (3QP)

Survey	0.8%
Actual	0.9%
Prior	0.8%
Revised	n/a

A touch higher bust still seems very low.

Core PCE QoQ (3QP)

Survey	1.8%
Actual	1.8%
Prior	1.8%
Revised	n/a

Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 24)

Survey	330K
Actual	352K
Prior	330K
Revised	329K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

Continuing Claims (Nov 17)

Survey	2575K
Actual	2665K
Prior	2566K
Revised	2553K

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

New Home Sales (Oct)

Survey	750K
Actual	728K
Prior	770K
Revised	716K

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

New Home Sales MoM (Oct)

Survey	-2.6%
Actual	1.7%
Prior	4.8%
Revised	-0.1%

Up a touch from revised lower number, but still very low.

Help Wanted Index (Oct)

Survey	23
Actual	23
Prior	24
Revised	n/a

Thanksgiving week. Next week’s number is more informative.

House Price Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-0.4%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	n/a

Moving lower.
Do you think any of this is below fed expectations as of October 31st?

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