Tag Archives: GDP

2009-03-26 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q F)

Survey -6.6%
Actual -6.3%
Prior -6.2%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.5%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 0.8%
Actual 0.9%
Prior 0.8%
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -4.4%
Actual -4.3%
Prior -4.3%
Revised n/a

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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 21)

Survey 650K
Actual 652K
Prior 646K
Revised 644K

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Continuing Claims (Mar 14)

Survey 5475K
Actual 5560K
Prior 5473K
Revised 5438K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 21)


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2009-02-27 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q P)

Survey -5.4%
Actual -6.2%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.8%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.2%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey -0.1%
Actual 0.5%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 0.6%
Actual 0.8%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (4Q P)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -4.3%
Prior -3.5%
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Feb)

Survey 33.0
Actual 34.2
Prior 33.3
Revised n/a

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NAPM Milwaukee (Feb)

Survey 32.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 33.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Feb F)

Survey 56.0
Actual 56.3
Prior 56.2
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Feb F)


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2008 swap line advances as a % of GDP

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Swap lines as % of GDP by CB, year end 2008 (a bit dated now in Feb but anyway FYI).

Swap lines as % of GDP

BANK %S
ECB (16) 2.42%
Swiss 5.11%
BOE 1.07%
BOJ 2.53%
Aussie 2.13%
Sweden 4.87%
Denmark 4.06%
Norway 1.71%
Korea 1.09%

Resp,

Source Federal Reserve Statistical Summary:
“At end-December 2008 swaps outstanding were $553.728 billion: $291.352 billion with the European Central Bank, $25.175 billion with the Swiss National Bank, $33.08 billion with the Bank of England, $122.716 billion with the Bank of Japan, $22.830 billion with the Reserve Bank of Australia, $25 billion with the Bank of Sweden, $15 billion with the National Bank of Denmark, $8.225 billion with the Bank of Norway and $10.350 with the Bank of Korea.”


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2008-12-23 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to slip.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.60%
Prior 0.60%
Revised n/a

 
Cheaper gasoline helping some?

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.00%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.70%
Prior -0.70%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

No meaningul sign of cheaper gasoline helping here yet.

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 16)

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q F)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Tiny positive for the year.

Next quarter looking negative.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
This is heading to new lows as well.

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GDP Price Index (3Q F)

Survey 4.25
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse.

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q F)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse some.

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GDP ALLX 1 (3Q F)

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GDP ALLX 2 (3Q F)

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Personal Consumption (3Q F)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Sudden fall from ‘muddling through’ to recession.

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Univ of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey 58.8
Actual 60.1
Prior 59.1
Revised n/a

 
Gasoline prices helping here.

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Univ of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec F)

 
Back to where the Fed wants them to be.

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New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 415k
Actual 407k
Prior 433k
Revised 419k

 
A bit lower than expected and last month revised down some.

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 374.00
Prior 402.00
Revised n/a

 
Down to very low levels and one reason sales are low.

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New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.9%
Prior -5.2%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -35.3%
Prior -42.0%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 220.40
Prior 214.60
Revised n/a

 
Up, but still trending lower.

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Nov)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Nov)

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Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 4.93M
Actual 4.49M
Prior 4.98M
Revised 4.91M

 
Large drop.

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -8.6%
Prior -3.1%
Revised -4.5%

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still well off the bottom.

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.234
Prior 4.272
Revised n/a

 
Falling some, but new foreclosures probably keeping this high.

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Nov)

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House Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.2%

 
Still falling.

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House Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.5%
Prior -7.0%
Revised n/a

 
No bottom in sight yet.

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House Price Index ALLX (Nov)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey -40
Actual -55
Prior -38
Revised n/a

 
Very weak.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Dec)


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2008-11-25 USER

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Karim writes:

  • Overlooked with the Fed headlines, but likely to lead to further downward revisions to Q4/Q1 growth outlook.

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.10%
Revised n/a

 
Looking very soft, even with low gasoline prices.

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.90%
Prior 0.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.40%
Prior -0.90%
Revised n/a

 
Same.

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Nov 25)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Johnson Redbook sales down 1.3% m/m thru 3rd week of November.
  • Another negative retail sales month sets up Q4 real GDP for at least -4%

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Nov 25)

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q P)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.3%
Revised n/a

 
As expected and in line with the longer term down trend in real gdp growth

Good evidence of a continuing and increasing lack of aggregate demand.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.7%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Mildly positive but the trend is still looking down.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
Barely positive.

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GDP Price Index (3Q P)

Survey 4.2%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
High but expected to fall with falling commodity prices.

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q P)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 2.6%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Looks to be in a long term uptrend, though also expected to fall with commodity prices.

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GDP ALLX 1 (3Q P)

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GDP ALLX 2 (3Q P)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Sep)

Survey 163.00
Actual 161.56
Prior 164.57
Revised 164.40

 
Took a turn for the worse.

Karim writes:

  • Case Shiller down 1.85% q/q and -17.4% y/y

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Sep)

Survey -16.90%
Actual -17.40%
Prior -16.62%
Revised -16.60%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.32
Revised 155.45

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (3Q)

Survey -17.05%
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised -15.07%

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Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Survey 38.0
Actual 44.9
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.8

 
Tiny blip up- well above expectations.

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Nov)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Nov)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Survey -27
Actual -38
Prior -26
Revised n/a

 
Far worse than expected, more in line with Q4 GDP forecasts of -4%.

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Nov)

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House Price Index MoM (Sep)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.3%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

 
Also falling like a rock.

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House Price Index YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.0%
Prior -6.1%
Revised n/a

 
No sign of turning around yet.

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House Price Index ALLX (Sep)

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House Price Purchase Index QoQ (3Q)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.8%
Prior -1.4%
Revised n/a

 
The decline has resumed.


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2008-10-30 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q A)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.3%
Prior 2.8%
Revised n/a

 
A bit better than exected, and longer term the chart shows gradual declining rates of growth of GDP.

Karim writes:

  • GDP weak across the board

  • Economy contracts at 0.3% annualized rate in Q3

  • Sector changes (all annualized)

  • Personal consumption -3.1%

  • Non residential investment -1%

  • Residential investment (housing) -19.1%

  • Exports 5.9% (from 12.3%)

  • Government 5.8%

Government spending to keep the numbers from being a lot worse.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.8%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Same, been trending down for quite a while.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.4%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
Nominal is sagging as well, indicating weakening nominal demand.

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GDP Price Index (3Q A)

Survey 4.0%
Actual 4.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

 
Higher than expected, but of no concern to a ‘forward looking’ Fed.

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GDP ALLX (3Q A)

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Core PCE QoQ (3Q A)

Survey 2.5%
Actual 2.9%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Core continues to march higher, and unless crude prices stay at the lows this can continue for several quarters.

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Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25)

Survey 475K
Actual 479K
Prior 478K
Revised 479K

 
Still looks to be moving up.

Karim writes:

  • Initial unchanged at 479k but no hurricane effects so underlying trend weaker by about 12-15k

  • Continuing claims drop 12k from upwardly revised 3727k to 3715k

  • Looks like -250 to -300k on next payrolls.

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Continuing Claims (Oct 18)

Survey 3735K
Actual 3715K
Prior 3720K
Revised 3727K

 
Near previous peaks, remains high.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Oct 25)


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2008-09-26 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q F)

Survey 3.3%
Actual 2.8%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

 
Growth lower than expected, but still ok.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still above recession levels, but still not looking that healthy.

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (2Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.1%
Prior 4.7%
Revised n/a

 
Nominal GDP falling, but not yet to previous recession levels.

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GDP Price Index (2Q F)

Survey 1.2%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 1.2%
Revised n/a

 
A little better than expected, but this series doen’t carry much weight.

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GDP ALLX (2Q F)

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q F)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
A bit higher than expected, and the Fed does watch this one closely. They want it under 2%.

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Personal Consumption (2Q F)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

 
Worse than expected and not moving much off the bottom, which are at recession type levels.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q F)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q F)

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Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Sep F)

Survey 70.8
Actual 70.3
Prior 73.1
Revised n/a

 
Less than expected but looks to have perked up some.

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1 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.3%
Prior 3.6%
Revised n/a

 
Welcome news for the Fed. Follows gasoline prices pretty closely.

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5 Year Inflation Expectations (Sep F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

 
Also nice to see that coming down.

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Univ. of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Sep F)


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2008-08-28 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q P)

Survey 2.7%
Actual 3.3%
Prior 1.9% (2Q P); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized (2Q P)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.2%
Prior 2.5%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (2Q P)

Survey 1.1%
Actual 1.2%
Prior 1.1%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption (2Q P)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.5% (2QP); 0.9% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q P)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.1% (2Q P); 2.3% (Q1)
Revised n/a

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q P)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q P)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 23)

Survey 425K
Actual 425K
Prior 432K
Revised 435K

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Aug 16)

Survey 3390K
Actual 3423K
Prior 3362K
Revised 3359K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Aug 22)


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2008-07-31 US Economic Releases

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GDP QoQ Annualized (2Q A)

Survey 2.3%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.0%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected, and helped by a low deflator, but up nonetheless with government and exports leading the charge.

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GDP Price Index (2Q A)

Survey 2.4%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 2.7%
Revised 2.6%

big drop in the headline deflator – need to wait for next quarter to see if it’s reversed.

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GDP ALLX (2Q A)

From Cesar:

GDP:

  • grew 1.9% below expectations of 2.3%
  • rebates helped consumption grow 1.5% for 1.08% contribution to growth
  • net exports added 2.42% to growth
  • inventories were drag of 1.92%
  • residential investment was down -15.6% after declining 25.1% last month and the drag was “only” .62% after subtracting over 1% from GDP the last 3 quarters…
    housing drag on GDP will diminish as decline decelerates and housing shrinks as % of total GDP

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Personal Consumption (2Q A)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.5%
Prior 1.1%
Revised 0.9%

Less than expected but turning up.

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Core PCE QoQ (2Q A)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior 2.3%
Revised n/a

Worse than expected and still looks to be working its way higher over time.

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Personal Consumption ALLX 1 (2Q A)

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Personal Consumption ALLX 2 (2Q A)

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Employment Cost Index (2Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

As expected

Look to import prices as an indication of foreign employment costs of what we consume. They are rising rapidly.

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (2Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 26)

Survey 393K
Actual 448K
Prior 406K
Revised 404K

Higher than expected, and indicate next month might be a tougher job environment.

4 week average approaching 400,000.

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Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 19)

Survey 3150K
Actual 3282K
Prior 3107K
Revised 3097K

Not looking good at all. No sign of retreat yet.

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jul 26)

From Cesar:
Initial and continuing claims:

jump to new cycle highs of 448k and 3,282k, respectively (no special factors noted)
the weakness in this real-time indicator seems to tell us more about current state of economy than today’s GDP reports or tomorrow’s payrolls…

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jul)

Survey 49.0
Actual 50.8
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Higher than expected.

Prices paid remains very high.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager ALLX (Jul)

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NAPM-Milwaukee (Jul)

Survey 43.5
Actual 44.0
Prior 39.0
Revised n/a

Higher then expected.

Prices paid remain very high.

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NAPM-Milwaukee ALLX (Jul)


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AMEX/CAT

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Karim writes:

AMEX notes consumer spending slowed in latter part of quarter, suggesting effect of fiscal impulse waning. CAT driven by emerging market strength, states U.S. and Europe are two weakest regions, and expects rate cuts by Fed and ECB by year-end.

AMEX

  • Consumer spending slowed during the latter part of the quarter and credit indicators deteriorated beyond our expectations,” Mr Chenault said. The economic fallout was evident even among American Express’s prime customers.

CAT

  • CATERPILLAR SEES ECB CUTTING RATES AT LEAST 25BP BEFORE YR END
  • CATERPILLAR SEES NO SIGN OF RECOVERY IN NORTH AMERICAN HOUSING
  • CATERPILLAR ASSUMES AT LEAST ONE MORE RATE CUT LATER THIS YR
  • CATERPILLAR SEES ‘DIFFICULT’ FOR ECONOMY TO AVOID A RECESSION
  • CATERPILLAR SEES OIL PRICE AVG ABOUT 16% HIGHER IN LAST HALF
  • CATERPILLAR SAYS 2Q SALES/REVENUE UP 30% OUTSIDE NORTH AMERICA
  • Caterpillar Net Rises 34% as Asia, Mideast Building Lift Sales
  • Caterpillar Reports All-Time Record Quarter Driven by Strong Growth Outside North America

    • Right, weak domestic demand for sure. But note the last few lines that represent the booming exports even though domestic economies around the world are slowing.

    That’s what happens when they spend their accumulated hoard of USD here and spend less at home as they try to get rid of their USD hoards. This doesn’t stop until their holdings of USD fall to desired levels.

    I still see continued domestic weakness with GDP muddling through due to exports and government spending.

    And ever higher prices pouring in through the import/export channel.


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