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![ICSC Store Sales Weekly Change](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-icsc-store-sales-weekly-change-small.gif)
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ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
0.1 |
Prior |
-0.6 |
Revised |
n/a |
Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.
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![Redbook Weekly YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-redbook-weekly-yoy-small.gif)
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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
2.9 |
Prior |
2.8 |
Revised |
n/a |
A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.
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![2008-07-01 ICSC and Redbook TABLE](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-icsc-ubs-and-redbook-table-small.gif)
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ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
n/a |
Prior |
n/a |
Revised |
n/a |
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![2008-07-01 ISM Manufacturing](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-ism-manufacturing-small.gif)
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ISM Manufacturing (Jun)
Survey |
48.5 |
Actual |
50.2 |
Prior |
49.6 |
Revised |
n/a |
Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.
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![2008-07-01 ISM Prices Paid](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-ism-prices-paid-small.gif)
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ISM Prices Paid (Jun)
Survey |
87.0 |
Actual |
91.5 |
Prior |
87.0 |
Revised |
n/a |
Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.
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![2008-07-01 ISM TABLE](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-ism-table-small.gif)
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ISM TABLE (Jun)
Karim writes:
- Not much change in headline or production/new order components.
- Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).
Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.
- Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.
Weak, but not recession levels yet.
Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.
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![2008-07-01 Construction Spending MoM](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-construction-spending-mom-small.gif)
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Construction Spending MoM (May)
Survey |
-0.6% |
Actual |
-0.4% |
Prior |
-0.4% |
Revised |
-0.1% |
A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.
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![2008-07-01 Construction Spending YoY](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-construction-spending-yoy-small.gif)
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Construction Spending YoY (May)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-6.0% |
Prior |
-5.1% |
Revised |
n/a |
Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.
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![2008-07-01 ABC Consumer Confidence](https://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2008/07/2008-07-01-abc-consumer-confidence-small.gif)
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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)
Survey |
n/a |
Actual |
-43 |
Prior |
-43 |
Revised |
n/a |
Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.
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