Tag Archives: Construction Spending

2009-05-04 USER

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Construction Spending MoM (Mar)

Survey -1.6%
Actual 0.3%
Prior -0.9%
Revised -1.0%

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Construction Spending YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -11.1%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Mar)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.0%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.2%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a


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2009-04-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.0%
Prior 32.2%
Revised n/a

 
More evidence of the rising deficit turning the economy sideways ahead of the fiscal package kicking in this month to increase the injection of net financial assets to the non government sectors:

US mortgage applications climb, rates at fresh low

by Lynn Adler

Apr 1 (Reuters) — The Mortgage Bankers Association’s applications index, which includes both refi and purchase requests, rose by a seasonally adjusted 3 percent in the week ending March 27 to 1,194.4.

The purchase applications index was little changed, rising 0.1 percent to 268.0, while the refinancing gauge gained 3.7 percent to 6,600.1.

This is up sharply from 2,722.7 as recently as early February.

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 268.00
Prior 267.80
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Mar 27)

Survey n/a
Actual 6600.10
Prior 6363.20
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 180.7%
Prior 158.4%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Mar)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Mar)

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ADP Employment Change (Mar)

Survey -663K
Actual -742K
Prior -697K
Revised -706K

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ADP ALLX (Mar)

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ISM Manufacturing (Mar)

Survey 36.0
Actual 36.3
Prior 35.8
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Mar)

Survey 33.0
Actual 31.0
Prior 29.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Feb)

Survey -1.9%
Actual -0.9%
Prior -3.3%
Revised -3.5%

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Construction Spending YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -10.0%
Prior -10.1%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 2.1%
Prior -7.7%
Revised n/a

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.2%
Prior -6.6%
Revised n/a


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2009-03-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Jan)

Survey -0.2%
Actual 0.4%
Prior -0.2%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.9%
Prior 1.6%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Jan)

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Personal Spending (Jan)

Survey 0.4%
Actual 0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Deflator YoY (Jan)

Survey 0.5%
Actual 0.7%
Prior 0.6%
Revised 0.8%

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PCE Core MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.1%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Jan)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 1.6%
Prior 1.7%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Feb)

Survey 33.8
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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ISM Prices Paid (Feb)

Survey 33.5
Actual 35.8
Prior 35.6
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Jan)

Survey -1.5%
Actual -3.3%
Prior -1.4%
Revised -2.4%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.1%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a


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2009-02-02 USER

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Personal Income MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.2%
Revised -0.4%

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Personal Income YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.4%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

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Personal Income ALLX (Dec)

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Personal Spending (Dec)

Survey -0.9%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.8%

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PCE Deflator YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 1.4%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

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PCE Core YoY (Dec)

Survey 1.7%
Actual 1.7%
Prior 1.9%
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 32.5
Actual 35.6
Prior 32.4
Revised 32.9

 
Karim writes:

  • ISM bounces but level remains at recessionary/deflationary levels.

  • Headline rises by 2.7pts and price paid by 11pts.

  • Bounces seem quite narrow in scope as only 2 of 18 industries posted a rise in orders and 1 of 18 an increase in prices (metals-which oddly, has anecdote below about year being down 20-30%).

  • Manufacturing Index 35.6/32.9

  • Prices paid 29.0/18.0

  • Production 32.1/26.3

  • New orders 33.2/23.1

  • Employment 29.9/29.9

  • Export orders 37.5/35.5

  • Imports 36.5/39.0

  • “The slowdown in the automobile industry is forcing their suppliers to reduce production and employment.” (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)

  • “Our manufacturing is tied to the automobile industry, and we are seeing the ‘trickle down’ effect.” (Chemical Products)

  • “High inventory at customers is slowing production orders.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

  • “Sales are settling in; Q4 was better than expected.” (Machinery)

  • “Consumer confidence is low. Could see the entire year being down 20 percent to 30 percent.” (Fabricated Metals)

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ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey 18.0
Actual 29.0
Prior 18.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey -1.2%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.2%

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Construction Spending YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.6%
Prior -4.2%
Revised n/a


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2008-12-01 USER

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ISM Manufacturing (Nov)

Survey 37.0
Actual 36.2
Prior 38.9
Revised n/a

 
Major plunge. In line with the general economic climate.

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ISM Prices Paid (Nov)

Survey 32.0
Actual 25.5
Prior 37.0
Revised n/a

 
Another big drop as commodities continue to fall.

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Construction Spending MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -1.2%
Prior -0.3%
Revised 0.0%

 
Down more than expected.


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2008-10-01 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual -23.0%
Prior -10.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 304.80
Prior 342.20
Revised n/a

 
Back towards 300, the bottom of the range. Falling like most other indicators. A weak September due to the fears of the financial crisis looks to have pushed q3 into negative numbers.

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Sep 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 1333.90
Prior 2043.40
Revised n/a

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MBA TABLE 1 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 2 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 3 (Sep 26)

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MBA TABLE 4 (Sep 26)

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 32.6%
Prior 11.7%
Revised n/a

 
Not normally considered reliable, but this time in sync with other indicators of weakness.

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Sep)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Sep)

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ADP Employment Change (Sep)

Survey -50K
Actual -8K
Prior -33K
Revised -37K

 
The long gradual decline continues. This number is higher by about 50,000 than the same numbers will be as measured Friday due to the Boeing strike and the hurricane. ADP counts the strikers as still employed while the government doesn’t for Friday’s number.

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ADP ALLX (Sep)

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ISM Manufacturing (Sep)

Survey 49.5
Actual 43.5
Prior 49.9
Revised n/a

 
Serious nose dive here. Talk of buyers waiting for price reductions due to commodity price drops.

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ISM Prices Paid (Sep)

Survey 73.0
Actual 53.5
Prior 77.0
Revised n/a

 
Down, lower than expected, but more than half still paying higher prices. No deflation yet.

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ISM TABLE 1 (Sep)

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ISM TABLE 2 (Sep)

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Construction Spending MoM (Aug)

Survey -0.5%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -1.4%

 
Flat, better than expected, but prior month revised down by .8%.

Residential rose .3% for the first increase in a long time.

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Construction Spending YoY (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.9%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

 
The rate of decline has stabilized, and there will soon be easier comps.

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Construction Spending Residential (Sep)

Survey n/a
Actual 351662.0
Prior 350563.0
Revised n/a

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Sep)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Sep)


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2008-09-02 USER

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ISM Manufacturing (Aug)

Survey 50.0
Actual 49.9
Prior 50.0
Revised n/a

Not bad; far from recession levels in a sector that will continue to decline as a percentage of GDP indefinately.

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ISM Prices Paid (Aug)

Survey 82.0
Actual 77.0
Prior 88.5
Revised n/a

Less than expected, but still very high. Indication that most companies still paying higher prices even as commodities declined.

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ISM TABLE (Aug)

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Construction Spending MoM (Jul)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -0.4%
Revised 0.3%

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Construction Spending YoY (Jul)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.8%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still very weak, but smaller declines.

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Construction Spending TABLE 1 (Jul)

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Construction Spending TABLE 2 (Jul)

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Aug 31)

Survey -49
Actual -47
Prior -50
Revised n/a


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2008-07-01 US Economic Releases

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ICSC-UBS Store Sales Weekly Change (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.1
Prior -0.6
Revised n/a

Muddling through as govt spending and fiscal rebates offer support.

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Redbook Weekly YoY (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.9
Prior 2.8
Revised n/a

A bit better than expected and seem to be moving higher.

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ICSC-UBS and Redbook TABLE (Jul 1)

Survey n/a
Actual n/a
Prior n/a
Revised n/a

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ISM Manufacturing (Jun)

Survey 48.5
Actual 50.2
Prior 49.6
Revised n/a

Better than expected, headline looks better than the detail, but holding up well above recession levels.

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ISM Prices Paid (Jun)

Survey 87.0
Actual 91.5
Prior 87.0
Revised n/a

Breaking out. Question is whether there’s any level of inflation that will trigger a fed rate hike if GDP and financial conditions (whatever that means) stay at current levels.

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ISM TABLE (Jun)

Karim writes:

  • Not much change in headline or production/new order components.
  • Most material changes in prices paid (up 4.5; to new cycle high) and employment (down 1.8; to new cycle low).

Kohn’s speech: tolerate higher unemployment and higher inflation.

  • Based on continuing claims, conference board, and now ism, downside risk to -60k consensus for nfp on Thursday.

Weak, but not recession levels yet.

Government plus exports so far have made up for weak non-government domestic demand.

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Construction Spending MoM (May)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.4%
Revised -0.1%

A bit better than expected. Down but not terrible.

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Construction Spending YoY (May)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -5.1%
Revised n/a

Still near the lows, but a possible bottoming action.

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ABC Consumer Confidence (Jun 29)

Survey n/a
Actual -43
Prior -43
Revised n/a

Still looking pretty grim, probably mostly due to higher prices.


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2008-06-02 US Economic Releases

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2008-06-02 RPX Composite 28dy YoY

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual -13.97%
Prior -11.00%
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-02 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Mar)

Survey n/a
Actual 235.40
Prior 239.31
Revised n/a

[comments]

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2008-06-02 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Apr)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -1.1%
Revised -0.6%

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2008-06-02 Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Construction Spending MoM TABLE

Also better than expected, and showing signs of life as the fiscal package kicks in.

All eyes are on residential which appears to be slowing its decline and should be doing less damage to GDP.

Just heard Lehman raised Q2 GDP estimate to up 1% from down 0.4%.

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2008-06-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (May)

Survey 48.5
Actual 49.6
Prior 48.6
Revised n/a

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2008-06-02 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (May)

Survey 85.0
Actual 87.0
Prior 84.5
Revised n/a

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2008-06-02 ISM Manufacturing TABLE

ISM Manufacturing TABLE

Better than expected and looking like a bottom to me, with the fiscal package just now kicking in.

Recession fears a fading memory?

Prices paid way and higher than expected as FOMC turns its attention towards inflation.


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