2008-03-07 US Economic Releases

Posted on March 7, 2008 @ 3:30 pm (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls since 1980

Survey	23K
Actual	-63K
Prior	-17K
Revised	-22K

Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Survey	5.0%
Actual	4.8%
Prior	4.9%
Revised	n/a

The longer term chart is definitely looking lower/weaker, but not yet at recession levels, and is not ‘population adjusted.’

This give the Fed no comfort regarding inflation concerns.

The output gap is may already too low to bring inflation down, and their forecasts are for a (modest) pickup in growth when the fiscal package kicks in beginning early May.

In their models, it’s the forecast of rising unemployment that is responsible for the slack that brings inflation back into comfort zones.

Today’s 4.8% unemployment number is a step in the wrong direction for that to happen.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Feb)

Survey	-25K
Actual	-52K
Prior	-28K
Revised	-31K

Manufacturing employment falls indefinitely in a modern economy.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Feb)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.3%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	0.3%

The Fed wants these to remain reasonably well-contained.

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Feb)

Survey	3.6%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	n/a

As above.

Average Weekly Hours (Feb)

Survey	33.7
Actual	33.7
Prior	33.7
Revised	n/a

Down a tad.

Coming soon!

Consumer Credit (Jan)

Survey	$7.0B
Actual	—
Prior	$4.5B
Revised	—

[comments]

2008-02-01 US Economic Releases

Posted on February 1, 2008 @ 10:54 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	70K
Actual	-17K
Prior	18K
Revised	82K

Last negative number was August – got revised up.

Apart from the unrevised January number, the revised previous numbers don’t look too bad.

(See following report.)

Unemployment Rate

Survey	5.0%
Actual	4.9%
Prior	5.0%
Revised	n/a

Slight downtic.

The Fed calls 4.75% full employment.

So, this is close enough.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey	-20K
Actual	-28K
Prior	-31K
Revised	-20K

Suspiciously low as a per December durable goods and export numbers.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.2%
Prior	0.4%
Revised	n/a

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey	3.9%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.7%
Revised	n/a

Seems to be under control though a weak productivity number could raise unit labor costs.

Average Weekly Hours

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.7
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

Down a bit. Fairly steady.

RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	-4.1681
Prior	-3.4285
Revised	n/a

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey	n/a
Actual	254.3
Prior	255.5
Revised	258.9

November housing was weak.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey	79.0
Actual	78.4
Prior	80.5
Revised	n/a

Not bad.

Both current and expected improved.

U. of Michigan TABLE

ISM Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey	47.3
Actual	50.7
Prior	47.7
Revised	48.4

Back to growth mode.

ISM Prices Paid (Jan)

Survey	68.0
Actual	76.0
Prior	68.0
Revised	n/a

Inflation ripping here.

Construction Spending MoM (Dec)

Survey	-0.5%
Actual	-1.1%
Prior	0.1%
Revised	-0.4%

Still bumping along the bottom.

2008-01-04 US Economic Releases

Posted on January 4, 2008 @ 11:48 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

Unemployment Rate (Dec)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	5.0%
Prior	4.7%
Revised	n/a

It comes from the household survey – been volatile.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec)

Survey	70K
Actual	18K
Prior	94K
Revised	115K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Dec)

Survey	-15K
Actual	-31K
Prior	-11K
Revised	-13K

Payroll increases continue to decline modestly over time. The fed believes demographic changes will reduce the labor force participation rate, keeping unemployment relatively low and labor markets tight, even with fewer jobs.

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.4%
Prior	0.5%
Revised	0.4%

Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Dec)

Survey	3.6%
Actual	3.7%
Prior	3.8%
Revised	n/a

Remains firm, and productivity probably down, meaning unit labor costs rising some.

Average Weekly Hours (Dec)

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.8
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

ISM Non-Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey	53.6
Actual	53.9
Prior	54.1
Revised

Very firm and cross checks with th 93,000 increase in service sector jobs for December.

ISM Non-Manufacturing TABLE

Note the strength in the price categories.

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2007-12-07 US Economic Releases

Posted on December 7, 2007 @ 11:13 am (Friday) by WARREN MOSLER

On 12/7/07, Karim Basta wrote:
>
>
> NFP +94k
> Net revisions -48k, with Sep revised from 96k to 44k (lowest mthly gain
> since 2/04)But October revised up to 170,000, indicating Sep the low so far, and
> improvement since then. And the Fed surely remember Sep 11 meeting
> where the Aug employment number was reported down and later revised to
> a relatively strong up number.

> UE rate down from 4.727% to 4.658%

And the Fed is concerned a falling labor force participation rate due to demographics means labor tightening with fewer new jobs.

> Most important to me was the diffusion index dropping below 50 (more
> industries losing jobs than gaining jobs) for the first time since Sep 2003

Yes, but only just below to 49.8 from 53.

> Retail job change from -15k to +24k looks suspect and reflective of poor
> seasonal adjustment factor;likely borrowing heavily from Dec job gwth
> Index of aggregate hours up 0.1% and avg hrly earnings up 0.5% (off a low
> 0.2% last mth)

Might result in Fed upward revisions for q4 gdp?

>
> Base case for next week is -25bps on FF and -50bps on DR.

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov)

Survey	80K
Actual	94K
Prior	166K
Revised	170K

Better than forecasting, and jobs being added about as fast as the fed thinks possible given fed perception of current demographics – no slack evident. Sept revised down and October up to 170,000 so the chart looks fine.

Unemployment Rate (Nov)

Survey	4.8%
Actual	4.7%
Prior	4.7%
Revised	n/a

Better than forecast, and still well below the fed’s ‘unspoken’ concern that anything below 5% is more than non-inflationary full employment level.

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Nov)

Survey	-15K
Actual	-11K
Prior	-21K
Revised	-15K

Average Hourly Earnings MoM

Survey	0.3%
Actual	0.5%
Prior	0.2%
Revised	0.1%

Above expectations, nudges up inflation risk.

Average Hourly Earnings YoY

Survey	3.8%
Actual	3.8%
Prior	3.8%
Revised	3.6%

Average Weekly Hours (Nov)

Survey	33.8
Actual	33.8
Prior	33.8
Revised	n/a

Total hours holding up nicely and growing some – could see Q4 GPD numbers revised up by some firms.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Dec P)

Survey	75.0
Actual	74.5
Prior	76.1
Revised	n/a

This is also from watching CNBC.

Consumer Credit (Oct)

Survey	$5.0
Actual	$4.7B
Prior	$3.7B
Revised	$3.2B

Still in a reasonably narrow range.

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