2008-01-15 US Economic Releases

2008-01-15 Producer Price Index MoM

Producer Price Index MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM

PPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.2%
Prior 0.4%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 Producer Price Index YoY

Producer Price Index YoY (Dec)

Survey 7.1%
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.2%
Revised n/a

2008-01-15 PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY

PPI Ex Food & Energy YoY (Dec)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.0%
Revised n/a

Inflation pressures remain alarming.

2007 highest inflation since the early 1980s, when inflation was on the way down.

Last hit this number on the way up was in the 1970s.


2008-01-15 Advance Retail Sales

Advance Retail Sales (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 1.2%
Revised 1.0%

Previous month still very high, two month average looks OK.


2008-01-15 Retail Sales YoY % Change

Retail Sales YoY % Change

Year over year numbers still modestly moving back up.


2008-01-15 Retail Sales Less Autos

Retail Sales Less Autos (Dec)

Survey -0.1%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 1.8%
Revised 1.7%

Same as above.


2008-01-15 Empire Manufacturing

Empire Manufacturing (Jan)

Survey 10.0
Actual 9.0
Prior 10.3
Revised 9.8

2008-01-15 Empire Manufacturing TABLE

Empire Manufacturing TABLE

A close look at the table shows prices still very strong.


2008-01-15 Business Inventories

Business Inventories (Nov)

Survey 0.4%
Actual
Prior 0.1%
Revised

Chart looks OK – no excessive build.


Data not in, until 5PM EST..

ABC Consumer Confidence (Jan 13)

Survey -21
Actual
Prior -20
Revised

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2008-01-08 US Economic Releases

2008-01-08 Pending Sales Total SA

Pending Home Sales Total SA

Survey -0.7%
Actual -2.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

Down a touch but not through the lows, could still be forming a bottom.


ibd-tipp-economic-optimism-graph.gif

Economic
Outlook
Personal
Financial
Outlook
Federal
Economic
Policies
Overall
Jan. 2008 31.4 55.7 42.7 43.2
Dec. 2007 32.1 58.3 42.7 44.4
Nov. 2007 30.8 53.5 47.1 43.8
Oct. 2007 38.5 58.2 45.1 47.3
Sept. 2007 37.9 59.3 47.3 48.2
Aug. 2007 40.3 59.8 48.5 49.5
July 2007 39.5 58.3 46.8 48.2
June 2007 41.3 58.9 47.1 49.1
May 2007 39.1 57.6 47.3 48
April 2007 34.9 56.2 45.3 45.5
March 2007 41.5 61.1 49.8 50.8
Feb. 2007 46.4 60.8 51 52.7

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (Jan) TABLE

Survey 43.0
Actual 43.2
Prior 44.4
Revised n/a

Speaks for itself…


2008-01-08 Consumer Credit Net Net Change

Consumer Credit Total Net Change

Survey $8.0B
Actual $15.4B
Prior $4.7B
Revised $2.0B

Explains November spending strength and probably borrowed from December due to how the holidays fell.


2008-01-08 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence

Survey -20
Actual -20
Prior -20
Revised n/a

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2008-01-02 US Economic Releases

RPX Composite 28dy Index (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 258.86
Prior 259.22
Revised n/a

2008-01-02 RPX Composite 28dy Index

RPX Composite 28dy Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -3.4295
Prior -2.4848
Revised n/a

Metropolitan housing prices remain very weak.


2008-01-02 ISM Manufacturing

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey 50.5
Actual 47.7
Prior 50.8
Revised n/a

On the weak side – mainly new orders.

Employment ok.


2008-01-02 ISM Prices Paid

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey 65.0
Actual 68.0
Prior 67.5
Revised n/a

No weakness here!


2008-01-02 Construction Spending MoM

Construction Spending MoM (Nov)

Survey -0.4%
Actual 0.1%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.4%

Stronger than expected; may have bottomed.


2008-01-02 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 30)

Survey n/a
Actual -20
Prior -23
Revised n/a

Moderately less negative.


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2007-12-26 US Economic Releases

2007-12-26 S&P-Case Shiller Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual 192.9
Prior 195.6
Revised 195.7

2007-12-26 S&P-CS Composite-20 YoY

S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY (Oct)

Survey -5.7%
Actual -6.1%
Prior 4.9%
Revised n/a

2007-12-26 S&P-Case-Shiller 20 MoM%

S&P/CS 20 MoM (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.42%
Prior -0.84%
Revised n/a
% Change -69.05%

2007-12-26 Home Price Index

S&P/Case-Shiller TABLE

Survey 1
Actual -4
Prior 0
Revised n/a

It’s a big city index and has been down more than broader measures. Biggest drops have come in Miami, Las Vegas, Detroit, and Los Angeles. Also, these are October numbers – old news now.


2007-12-26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey 1
Actual -4
Prior 0
Revised n/a

2007-12-26 Richmond Fed Manufacturing TABLE

Redmond Manufacturing TABLE

Some weakness and higher prices.


2007-12-26 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -23
Prior -17
Revised

This was when CNBC was still gloomy. Now that CNBC has turned a bit more optimistic, maybe the number will turn up as well.


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2007-12-18 US Economic Releases

2007-12-18 Housing Starts

Housing Starts (Nov)

Survey 1176K
Actual 1187K
Prior 1229K
Revised 1232K

2007-12-18 Building Permits

Building Permits (Nov)

Survey 1150K
Actual 1152K
Prior 1178K
Revised 1170K

While housing is still down and out, I’m going out on a limb and saying it’s not going to get much worse, and the next meaningful move is up, particularly if exports hold up. December, January, and February are slow months, and the data doesn’t tell me much; so, it will be ninety days before we get any clarity of where it’s actually going.


2007-12-18 ABC Consumer Confidence

ABC Consumer Confidence (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -17
Prior -23
Revised n/a

The CNBC Effect wearing off some?


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