2009-03-23 CREDIT


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In line with recent equity price actions as the Obamaboom takes shape due to the automatic stabilizers, and soon to be enhanced by the fiscal adjustments.

IG On-the-run Spreads (Mar 23)

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IG6 Spreads (Mar 23)

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IG7 Spreads (Mar 23)

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IG8 Spreads (Mar 23)

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IG9 Spreads (Mar 23)


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2009-03-23 USER


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Existing Home Sales (Feb)

Survey 4.45M
Actual 4.72M
Prior 4.49M
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales MoM (Feb)

Survey -0.9%
Actual 5.1%
Prior -5.3%
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales YoY (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.6%
Prior -8.6%
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales Inventory (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.798
Prior 3.611
Revised n/a

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Feb)

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Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Feb)

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Existing Home Sales TABLE 1 (Feb)

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Existing Home Sales TABLE 2 (Feb)


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Fed swap lines up $15.7 billion


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Fed USD swap lines outstanding increased $15.7 billion to $329.6 billion last week.

Not good! It’s only one week’s data, but the Fed doesn’t want to see this moving up.

They recently extended the lines from April to October, and likely realize there is no way
they can let the outstanding loans mature and demand payment without market disruptions that would make the rest of the financial crisis look like child’s play.

And if the rest of the world catches on to the notion that the Fed can’t call these loans without serious market disruptions, market forces will cause the lines to expand continuously and only stop when the Fed finally does call a halt either on their own or via Congressional order.


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In case you thought the Swiss National Bank understands its monetary system


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Interesting the legendary Swiss National Bank doesn’t yet understand it’s own monetary system.

Seems their understanding has yet to move beyond the days of the gold standard.

SNB Moves Are Defense Against Deflation, Jordan Says

by Simone Meier

Mar 19 (Bloomberg) — Swiss central bank Governing Board member Thomas Jordan comments on the economic outlook, the SNB’s use of unconventional policy tools and deflation risks. He made the remarks in a speech in Zurich today.

On currency measures:

“From the SNB’s point of view, the current currency-market measures are serving as an insurance against the threat of an unwelcome strong appreciation of the franc. At the same time, they’re serving as defense against deflation.”

Yes, the ‘deflation’ from lower costs of falling export prices that drive down domestic wages, profitability, and asset prices.

“The SNB’s currency purchases don’t have anything to do with a ‘beggar thy neighbor’ policy and must not be interpreted as the beginning of a currency war. It’s not about Switzerland creating advantages with a weak franc.”

He can call it whatever he wants. Functionally it’s a policy to keep their currency weak enough to keep export prices from falling. ‘Beggar thy neighbor’ is not a matter of degree. It means leaning on your neighbors domestic demand for your own employment purposes.

This is what happens when those running a government don’t understand how their non convertible currency works.

“Our purchases on the currency market are only to be seen as an additional instrument in times of zero-rate policy to fight the deflation threat.”

Call it what you want, mate. It’s a dead on beggar thy neighbor policy by ‘previous’ definition.

On unconventional tools:

“The use of unconventional measures doesn’t go without risks. On one hand, effects and side effects aren’t as well known as those of the conventional monetary policy.

First, they are highly unsure of the effects of ‘conventional monetary policy’ as per their own econometric research and theory.

Second, the effects of ‘unconventional measures’ are not only not well known, they are not understood at all.

Ironically, however, they are easier to understand, they alter the term structure of rates and remove interest income from the non government sectors.

And selling your currency to buy FX is an inflationary bias that drives down your currency and increases local currency prices of imports and exports.

On the other hand, it’s an intentional over-supply of the economy with liquidity.

Whatever that means in this context. Close questioning of what this means operationally reveals it’s empty rhetoric, all based on the backwards notion that the banking system needs reserves to be able to make loans.

There needs to be an immediate exit of unconventional measures once the monetary stimulus can be reduced. The assessment of the current crisis means that the SNB has to take these risks.”

There are no such risks. They don’t know how their own monetary system works.

The SNB “has to already engage itself with the question of a timely exit of these measures, however. Even with all uncertainty in forecasts, there’s certainty that there will be quieter times in the future. The exit of unconventional measures has to immediately happen once the monetary stimulus can be reduced. That’s the case when tensions on money and credit markets are over and inflation risks are increasing along with an economic recovery.”

“The dosage of monetary policy isn’t easy in the current environment. The assessment of current risks is clearly in favor of rather too much monetary stimulus than too little.”

The SNB is “confident” it will be able “reduce liquidity” when the time comes.

This is all non-sensical.


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Re: Comment on Fed Balance Sheet


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(email exchange)

>   
>   On Thu, Mar 19, 2009 at 6:15 PM, Mauer wrote:
>   
>   Just to clarify: are there any circumstances in which the Federal Reserve
>   could “create” inflation or hyperinflation a la the Bank of Zimbabwe?
>   

Yes, if they raised rates high enough.

Seriously!

That would mean a large jump in government deficit spending on interest and a hike in the marginal cost of production. This is what happened after Volcker raised rates to over 20%. That inflation broke only because deregulation of natural gas in 1978 brought out enough supply to replace 15 million barrels per day of crude that was being burned for power, which broke the Saudi monopoly.

>   
>   Or does the unique privilege accorded to the central bank having the
>   reserve currency always preclude that?
>   

Just the way any non convertible currency works. Inflation isn’t all that much of a function of interest rates.


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Research Reports – Fed Balance Sheet Explodes


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Yes, and when the proactive fiscal package kicks in next month adding to the already reasonably large deficit (from falling tax revenues and rising transfer payments) and starts driving up prices from liquidation levels, monetary policy will get the blame. Just like Greenspan’s getting blamed for the housing bubble that followed the 2003 fiscal adjustment and subsequent GDP growth.

Fed Balance Sheet Explodes

by Brian Wesbury and Robert Stein

Mar 18 (First Trust) — The Federal Reserve today went into overdrive in its attack on the US recession and financial system crisis.

We are definitely fearful of the long-term consequences of massively easy monetary policy, which today’s policy statement clearly signals. The US does not face a deflation problem, as February reports on producer and consumer prices revealed. As a result, easy money will become even more problematic than conventional wisdom believes or understands.


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2009-03-19 USER


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Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14)

Survey 655K
Actual 646K
Prior 654K
Revised 658K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 12k to 646k (prior week revised up 4k)
  • Continuing claims rise another 185k to 5473k, +349k in last 2 weeks and more than double Jan 2008 level
  • Continuing claims correlated to longer duration of unemployment, drawing down of savings (assuming expenses greater than jobless benefit), and less pressure on wages

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Continuing Claims (Mar 7)

Survey 5323K
Actual 5473K
Prior 5317K
Revised 5288K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Mar 7)

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Leading Indicators (Feb)

Survey -0.6%
Actual -0.4%
Prior 0.4%
Revised 0.1%

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Leading Indicators ALLX (Feb)

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Philadelphia Fed (Mar)

Survey -39.0
Actual -35.0
Prior -41.3
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Philly Fed headline (not a wtd avg of components) improves from -41.3 to -35
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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Mar)

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    Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Mar)


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    Fed discussing how to ‘inject credit’


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    Problem is those things cut rates, they don’t ‘inject credit’ or alter net financial assets held by the non government sectors.

    It’s about price, not quantity.

    Fed Wrestles Over How to Inject Credit Into Economy

    by Steve Matthews

    Mar 18 (Bloomberg) — Fed officials will debate how to provide further stimulus to the economy, from purchasing more mortgage bonds to buying Treasury securities, and will also keep the benchmark interest rate as low as zero percent, according to economist projections. At least three of the 17 top Fed officials want to buy Treasuries or target the supply of money, while Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has favored reviving specific credit markets. Policy makers have disagreed on just how to be more aggressive. They have at least three options: increase the $1 trillion Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility aimed at restoring consumer and business lending; expand purchases of mortgage-backed securities and agency securities; or begin purchasing long-term Treasuries.


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