Grayson on Fed swap lines


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Grayson has this completely wrong. There was credit risk only for the unsecured lending.

There was no currency risk.

The swap lines are nothing more than unsecured dollar loans to the foreign CB’s.

Congress seems not capable of informed criticism.

And judging from the movement of the dollar since the swaps began, Grayson said, it looks like the U.S. could have taken a $100 billion dollar loss because the value of the foreign currency held by the U.S. depreciated in value by roughly one-fifth. Bernanke told Grayson that it was a “coincidence” that the dollar appreciated substantially after the half-trillion dollar swap project got underway in September. The Fed website maintains that the transactions are without risk because the exchange rates are locked in.

Link


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Europe Posts Trade Surplus in May


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Both imports and exports continued to fall in May as nothing there seems to be going right.

Europe Posts Trade Surplus in May as Imports Fall

By Emma Ross-Thomas

July 17 (Bloomberg) — Europe posted a trade surplus for a second month in May as exports declined less than imports.

Shipments from the 16-nation euro area fell a seasonally adjusted 2.7 percent from April, when they dropped 0.7 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today.

Imports slipped 2.8 percent, swelling the trade surplus to 800 million euros ($1.1 billion) in May from 700 million euros.


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Germany looking into dollar bonds


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>   
>   (email exchange)
>   
>   On Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 11:10 AM, wrote:
>   
>   Why do you think Germany is looking at issuing dollar bonds?
>   

Good question!

They think the odds of the Fed bailing them out in a pinch are better than the ECB?

They have banks with dollar debt who need to repay the dollar swap line advances from the ECB?

The dollar interest rate is lower?

They are concerned about borrowing so many euro?

They want to bet the dollar will go down?
Some investment banker has talked them into believing there is some advantage to diversify their borrowings by currency?

None of these possible explanations make any sense so it must be something else.

Germany ‘Closely Monitoring’ Dollar Bonds for Sale

By Anchalee Worrachate

July 10 (Bloomberg) — Germany is “closely monitoring” the dollar-denominated bond market for a possible sale, the head of the nation’s debt agency said.

“Dollar bonds are looking more attractive now from the issuer’s perspective than a couple of months ago,” Carl Heinz Daube, head of Germany’s Federal Finance Agency, said today in an interview from Frankfurt. “Nevertheless, there’s still no cost advantage for us at this point. If the price is right, we won’t say no.”

Selling dollar bonds would allow Germany to appeal to a wider range of investors, including money managers in the U.S. who don’t want to take on foreign-exchange risk. The agency issued five-year dollar bonds in 2005, the only time it sold debt denominated in the U.S. currency.

A meeting with U.S. investors suggested there’s “strong” interest in the debt, Daube said.

“I met investors in the U.S. last week and a number of institutional investors seemed to be keen to invest in Germany’s dollar bonds,” he said. “The final decision is with the Ministry of Finance.”

Germany hired banks to sell the five-year securities that come due in 2010 and may do so again should it proceed with a dollar-bond sale, Daube said on June 23.

“We tend to do less funding in the summer because of the holiday season,” Daube said. “But I might not say no if there’s a great cost advantage next week.”

Record Sales

The German debt agency will sell an unprecedented 346 billion euros ($481 billion) of government securities this year, 157 billion euros of which are bonds, with the remaining 189 billion euros in shorter-dated money-market instruments.

Bank bailouts and economic stimulus packages are swelling budget deficits in some of Europe’s largest economies, forcing governments to compete for cash. Poland last week sold $2 billion of dollar bonds after getting about $8 billion of investor orders. Spain sold $1 billion of three-year securities in dollars in March. Greece said in April it may sell debt denominated in either Japanese yen or the U.S. currency during the latter half of the year.

“Governments are diversifying their issuance as there’s so much funding to be done,” said Harvinder Sian, a senior bond strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “There’s a cost element that needs to be looked at. At the moment, it’s relatively attractive to issue dollar bonds.”

The German government is looking at overall costs, including hedging fees against the dollar’s appreciation, before deciding whether to offer the bond, Daube said. The dollar rose more than 13 percent versus the euro in the past 12 months.

“We are not allowed to carry any currency risk,” he said. “The whole package will have to be good because we must be able to save taxpayers money to issue such bonds.”


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swap lines


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Central bank liquidity swaps (13) 115,299 – 6,291

Fed advances to CB’s continues to fall

indicating foreign banks are increasingly able to borrow dollars in the market place.

If the remaining dollar loans to the ECB do become problematic,

it opens the door for the ECB to sell euro vs the dollar to pay down its loans.

It would do this if it wanted the euro weaker, perhaps to assist its exporters.

It would not be building dollar reserves, only paying down loans, so

there would be no ideological issue.


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ECB FILLED ALL BIDS IN 12-MONTH AUCTION AT 1% BENCHMARK RATE


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Now that the ECB has demonstrated how it can set term bank rates out to a year (and minimize the need for the interbank markets) the door is open to same for any maturity.

And it also paves the way for other CB’s to do the same as they inch closer to my long standing proposals.

Again, for CB’s it’s about price (interest rates), not quantity (size of operation, CB’s balance sheet, etc).

The effects on the economy are those of the resulting interest rates, and not the quantities involved in the CB’s operations.


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Trichet: Eurozone can’t spend any more


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(email exchange)

>   On Mon, Jun 22, 2009 at 4:32 AM, wrote:
>   
>   ECB President Trichet has warned that governments have no more room
>   for taking on more debt, and should now look to start bringing down
>   budget deficits. “There is a moment where you can’t spend anymore and
>   you can’t accumulate any more debt. I think we are at that moment”.
>   

Similar to the Obama statement that the US has ‘run out of money.’

The difference is that under current institutional constraints Trichet is, unfortunately, probably right.

They are stuck waiting around for their own automatic stabilizers to function, and for exports to improve.

And hope the markets don’t test their banking system deposit guarantees and national government funding abilities.


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ECB 1 year term repo


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This should bring down the term structure of rates at least out to one year, especially if the program is ongoing at this fixed rate.

And, operationally, it’s a similarly simple matter to set ‘risk free’ rates out the entire curve.

So, for example, bringing down rates out to a year could steepen the entire curve, but a follow up program to do the same for longer term rates could then flatten the curve.

And ‘turning the program on and off’ can add volatility as well.

Asikainen : Long Term Repo Operation (LTRO)

Next Thursday, the ECB will offer the market a funding tender which will let members of the system borrow at 1.0% for up to a year. Yes – term funding, secured by the ECB, at bargain-low rates for a year. You can pledge anything that is BBB or higher, and the ECB will fill unlimited supply at 1.00%. If they get EUR100 billion pledged? Filled. If they get EUR 2 trillion pledged? Filled.


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Trichet Sees Automatic Exit From ECB’s Non-Standard Measures


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The ECB remains way ahead of the fed regarding monetary operations.
It has been setting rates and letting quantity adjust and now addresses
unfounded concerns of ‘exit strategies’ head on.

(I take issue only to the extent of the potential inflationary implications and influence on growth and employment of interest rate policy in general, but that’s another story.)

The covered bond purchase could have utilized a rate target rather than a quantity target but their policy might not be to target a specific rate.

Also note they accept collateral down to a bbb rating from their member banks, which is includes bank paper and is functionally very close to unsecured lending- a policy that i have been suggesting would have served the fed well from the beginning of the crisis.

Trichet Sees Automatic Exit From ECB’s Non-Standard Measures

June 5 (Bloomberg) — European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said banks will seek less credit from the ECB when the economy improves, automatically reducing the amount of money in the system and ensuring a non-inflationary recovery.

By concentrating its non-standard policy measures on the supply of unlimited liquidity to banks, the ECB has ensured it has “an in-built exit strategy,” Trichet said in a speech in Warsaw today. “That is, when tensions in financial markets ease, banks will automatically seek less credit from the ECB.

This will be a decisive element in ensuring a non-inflationary recovery.”

The Frankfurt-based ECB, which has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1 percent, has said it will loan banks as much money as they need for up to 12 months and pledged to buy 60 billion euros ($85 billion) of covered bonds in an effort to revive lending. The ECB yesterday lowered its economic forecasts for this year and next. It now expects the economy of the 16 nations using the euro to shrink by about 4.6 percent this year before returning to positive quarterly growth rates by mid-2010.

“Once the macroeconomic environment improves, the Governing Council will ensure that the measures taken can be quickly unwound and the liquidity provided absorbed,” Trichet said. “Hence, any threat to price stability over the medium and longer term will be effectively countered in a timely fashion.”

Merkel’s Warning

German Chancellor Angela Merkel on June 2 scolded the Federal Reserve and Bank of England for pumping too much money into their economies and said that by deciding to buy covered bonds, the ECB had “bowed somewhat to international pressure.”

She urged a return to a “policy of reason.”

Trichet said the ECB’s “bold yet solidly-anchored response” to the worst economic crisis since World War II is “encouraging.” While long-term inflation expectations remain anchored around the ECB’s 2 percent limit, “our measures show some signs of revival in the functioning of money markets in Europe,” he said.

Trichet added that the crisis has not altered the ECB’s primary objective of maintaining price stability. “This objective will always provide the context and limits within which our course of action is framed and enacted.”

Trichet Says ECB Will Buy Covered Bonds Next Month

by Neil Unmack

June 4 (Bloomberg) — The European Central Bank will start buying 60 billion euros ($85 billion) of three- to 10-year covered bonds from July, President Jean-Claude Trichet said.

The central bank will buy bonds rated at least BBB- in the primary and secondary markets until June 2010, but doesn’t plan to purchase other assets, the ECB said after policy makers held interest rates at a record-low 1 percent. The ECB said on May 7 it will buy covered bonds in a bid to revive the market, which lenders use to finance mortgages and public-sector loans.

Covered bond issuance increased after the ECB announced the purchase program last month, with banks selling 26.8 billion euros of the debt, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The $2.8 trillion market had been roiled by the credit crisis, and sales had halved to 48.6 billion euros by May 7, compared with 99.4 billion euros in the same period a year earlier.

“It’s supportive for the primary and secondary covered bond market,” said Leef Dierks, a credit analyst at Barclays Capital in Frankfurt. “We expect the issuance window to remain open, and believe that the positive momentum in the secondary market will continue.”

To be included in the ECB’s purchase plan, covered bonds “must be eligible for use as collateral in the euro system’s credit operations,” Trichet said. The bonds must “have as a rule a volume of about 500 million euros or more and in any case not lower than 100 million euros,” he said.

Bond Eligibility

Bonds bought by the central bank must comply with the so- called UCITS directive, a European regulatory framework for mutual funds, or have “similar safeguards,” Trichet said, without being more specific.

“They want to get the most bang for their euro, and that means helping the bonds that will have the widest investor support in the market,” said Ted Lord, head of covered bonds at Barclays.

The ECB said it will buy bonds through “direct purchases” rather than following the Bank of England’s example of using auctions.

“We would like more clarity on how these direct purchases will work,” said Heiko Langer, a covered bond analyst at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Will we know how much they have bought, what they have bought, and at what price?”

Regarding the euro region’s economy, Trichet said confidence may improve more quickly than has been forecast.

“Risks to the economic outlook are balanced,” he said. “On the positive side” there are “stronger-than-anticipated effects from stimulus measures underway and other policy measures taken. Annual inflation rates are projected to decline further and become negative over the coming months.”

Covered bonds are backed by real-estate or public-sector debt and tend to have a higher rating than straight corporate bonds because they’re also supported by a borrower’s pledge to pay.


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Claims/ECB/BOC


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  • Initial claims down 4k to 621k
  • Continuing claims down 15k, first drop in 2009
  • Some possibility of Memorial Day week distorting data
  • Both measures consistent with ongoing job losses and rising unemployment rate, but a slower pace than in recent months
  • Have no bearing on tomorrow’s numbers as data came after survey week for NFP.

Interesting focus on FX from both ECB and BOC this morning:

From BOC:

–In recent weeks, financial conditions and commodity prices have improved significantly, and consumer and business confidence

have recovered modestly. If the unprecedentedly rapid rise in the Canadian dollar (which reflects a combination of higher

commodity prices and generalized weakness in the U.S. currency) proves persistent, it could fully offset these positive factors.

–Key is term ‘unprecedented’ and that rise in C$ is not fully explained by the rise in commodity prices.

From ECB:

–ECB staff updated its forecasts for growth and inflation. Main change was in 2009 growth forecast:

Now -4.1% to -5.1% from estimates of -2.2% to -3.2% in March

Trichet stated: “its very important u.s. repeats strong dollar policy”.

The Euro is not trading far from levels that Trichet described as ‘brutal’ in the past.


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