Category Archives: Daily

2009-01-06 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

 
Speaks for itself.

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.40%
Prior -1.50%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.30%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.50%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 6)

[top][end]

ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Dec)

Survey 36.5
Actual 40.6
Prior 37.3
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Factory Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -12.2%
Prior -6.3%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Factory Orders MoM (Nov)

Survey -2.3%
Actual -4.6%
Prior -5.1%
Revised -6.0%

[top][end]

Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Nov)

[top][end]

Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Nov)

[top][end]

Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Nov)

[top][end]

Pending Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -4.0%
Prior -0.7%
Revised -4.2%

[top][end]

Pending Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -9.6%
Prior -3.9%
Revised n/a


[top]

Share

2009-01-02 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

ISM Manufacturing (Dec)

Survey 35.4
Actual 32.4
Prior 36.2
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ISM Prices Paid (Dec)

Survey 20.0
Actual 18.0
Prior 25.5
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Weaker than expected across the board. Prices paid and production data imply further sharp falls in CPI and GDP in period ahead.
  • Export orders data and anecdotals on Europe and Asia imply the same for rest of G3.

Pretty much sums up what happened in December in general.


[top]

Share

2008-12-31 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

 
Karim writes:

  • The conference board survey of labor conditions (jobs plentiful less jobs hard to get) has been a good leading indicator of payrolls and worsened in December from -28.4 to -35.8.
  • The ABC survey also worsened last week despite the further decline in gas prices, suggesting the labor market continues to deteriorate.

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.0%
Prior 48.0%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Dec 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 320.90
Prior 316.50
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Dec 26)

Survey n/a
Actual 6733.80
Prior 6758.60
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 27)

Survey 575K
Actual 492K
Prior 586K
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims fall 94k to 492k but Labor Dept states data probably skewed by holidays and auto shutdowns

[top][end]

Continuing Claims (Dec 20)

Survey 4400K
Actual 4506K
Prior 4370K
Revised 4366K

 
Karim writes:

  • Continuing claims, reported with a 1 week lag to initial claims, rose 140k to a new cycle high of 4506k.

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 27)

 
Karim writes:

  • Would expect payroll decline for December to be larger than last month’s 533k drop (market expects slight improvement to -475k).

[top][end]

NAPM Milwaukee (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 30
Prior 35
Revised n/a


[top]

Share

2008-12-30 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Sinking.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Falling back, even with low fuel prices.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still way down.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still negative.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (-)

[top][end]

S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Still heading south as foreclosures continue to take their toll.

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

[top][end]

S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

[top][end]

Chicago Purchasing Manager (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Remains very low.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence (-)

Survey –
Actual –
Prior –
Revised –

 
Not much to be confident about.

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (-)

[top][end]

Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (-)


[top]

Share

Today’s Data

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

Karim writes:

Last data before 12/30

  • Mtge apps up 48% last week (MBA reports record 83% of households looking to refi). Refi apps up 48.4% on the week, purchases 10.6%.

Lower interest rates now starting to help this sector, but at the expense of interest income for others. Much of this is offset by government, however, as the deficit continues to rise counter cyclically (the ugly way- lower revenues and higher transfer payments).

  • Initial claims rise 30k to new cycle high (and highest since 1982) of 586k; continuing claims drop 17k to 4370k

This may get a lot worse after the holidays.

  • Core PCE unch m/m and up 1.9% y/y (core inflation down 0.5% in 3mths; so much for the flat Philips curve).

Yes, but not all that big a move for a negative 7% quarter and a 70% drop in crude oil and large declines in other commodities.

  • Personal income down 0.2%, with wage and salary income down 0.1%.

Lower interest income biting.

  • Savings rate up to 2.8% from 0.8% 3mths ago

It’s not so much that people are saving as it is they are not borrowing, as total mortgage and other credit measures decline.

  • Personal spending down 0.6% m/m

Less than expected as lower fuel prices seem to be helping some.

  • Durable goods orders -1% (prior month revised from -6.2% to -8.4%) and up 4.7% ex-aircraft and defense (this measure was down 12.3% in prior 3mths so correction was expected).
  • Shipments (key for current qtr growth) down 2.6%

Falling fuel prices and automatic stabilizers increasing the federal deficit are beginning to have an effect, but this is a long, drawn out process that in the past has taken years to restore output and employment.

A full payroll tax holiday and maybe $300 billion in Federal revenue sharing with the states can cut that time frame down to months rather than years.

And, of course, without a plan to cut crude oil product consumption fuel prices can likewise quickly elevate.

The Fed is still obstructing bank functioning by demanding collateral from member banks when it lends. This is redundant and should be addressed at once.

Also, the Fed swap lines to foreign CB’s are again rising and approaching $700 billion. Not sure how this ends. Lines are scheduled to end in April, but hard to see this happening. It could turn out to be the largest international fiscal transfer of all time.


[top]

Share

2008-12-24 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 48.0%
Prior 2.9%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

MBA Purchasing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 316.50
Prior 286.10
Revised n/a

 
Picking up with lower rates.

[top][end]

MBA Refinancing Applications (Dec 20)

Survey n/a
Actual 6758.60
Prior 4156.00
Revised n/a

 
Spiking with lower rates.

[top][end]

Personal Income MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual -0.2%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.1%

 
Lower than expected. Lower interest income continues to bite.

[top][end]

Personal Income YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.5%
Prior 3.1%
Revised n/a

 
Still up but lower interest income biting.

[top][end]

Personal Income ALLX (Nov)

[top][end]

Personal Spending (Nov)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -0.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 
Not good, but lower fuel prices helping other sales.

[top][end]

PCE Deflator YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.4%
Prior 3.2%
Revised n/a

 
Way down with the big drop in fuel costs.

[top][end]

PCE Core MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 0.0%
Prior 0.0%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

PCE Core YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.0%
Actual 1.9%
Prior 2.1%
Revised 2.0%

 
Back in the Fed’s comfort zone.

[top][end]

Durable Goods Orders (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual -1.0%
Prior -6.2%
Revised -8.4%

 
A little better than expected but still in decline.

[top][end]

Durable Goods Orders YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -17.6%
Prior -12.9%
Revised n/a

 
Big drop.

[top][end]

Durables Ex Defense MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.9%
Prior -6.7%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Nov)

Survey -3.0%
Actual 1.2%
Prior -4.4%
Revised -6.8%

 
Bit of a blip up but nothing serious as prior revised lower.

[top][end]

Durable Goods ALLX (Nov)

[top][end]

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 20)

Survey 558K
Actual 586K
Prior 554K
Revised 556K

 
May get a lot worse after the holidays.

[top][end]

Continuing Claims (Dec 13)

Survey 4410K
Actual 4370K
Prior 4384K
Revised 4387K

 
Likely to move up after the holidays.

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 20)


[top]

Share

2008-12-23 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.60%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to slip.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 2.60%
Prior 0.60%
Revised n/a

 
Cheaper gasoline helping some?

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.00%
Prior -1.40%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.70%
Prior -0.70%
Revised n/a

 
Still slipping.

No meaningul sign of cheaper gasoline helping here yet.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 16)

[top][end]

GDP QoQ Annualized (3Q F)

Survey -0.5%
Actual -0.5%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
As expected.

[top][end]

GDP YoY Annualized Real (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior 2.1%
Revised n/a

 
Tiny positive for the year.

Next quarter looking negative.

[top][end]

GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (3Q F)

Survey n/a
Actual 3.3%
Prior 4.1%
Revised n/a

 
This is heading to new lows as well.

[top][end]

GDP Price Index (3Q F)

Survey 4.25
Actual 3.9%
Prior 4.2%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse.

[top][end]

Core PCE QoQ (3Q F)

Survey 2.6%
Actual 2.4%
Prior 2.6%
Revised n/a

 
Should reverse some.

[top][end]

GDP ALLX 1 (3Q F)

[top][end]

GDP ALLX 2 (3Q F)

[top][end]

Personal Consumption (3Q F)

Survey -3.7%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Sudden fall from ‘muddling through’ to recession.

[top][end]

Univ of Michigan Confidence (Dec F)

Survey 58.8
Actual 60.1
Prior 59.1
Revised n/a

 
Gasoline prices helping here.

[top][end]

Univ of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Dec F)

 
Back to where the Fed wants them to be.

[top][end]

New Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 415k
Actual 407k
Prior 433k
Revised 419k

 
A bit lower than expected and last month revised down some.

[top][end]

New Home Sales Total for Sale (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 374.00
Prior 402.00
Revised n/a

 
Down to very low levels and one reason sales are low.

[top][end]

New Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.9%
Prior -5.2%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

New Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -35.3%
Prior -42.0%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

New Home Sales Median Price (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 220.40
Prior 214.60
Revised n/a

 
Up, but still trending lower.

[top][end]

New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Nov)

[top][end]

New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Nov)

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales (Nov)

Survey 4.93M
Actual 4.49M
Prior 4.98M
Revised 4.91M

 
Large drop.

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.0%
Actual -8.6%
Prior -3.1%
Revised -4.5%

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.6%
Prior 0.6%
Revised n/a

 
Still well off the bottom.

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales Inventory (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 4.234
Prior 4.272
Revised n/a

 
Falling some, but new foreclosures probably keeping this high.

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales ALLX 1 (Nov)

[top][end]

Existing Home Sales ALLX 2 (Nov)

[top][end]

House Price Index MoM (Oct)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.1%
Prior -1.3%
Revised -1.2%

 
Still falling.

[top][end]

House Price Index YoY (Oct)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.5%
Prior -7.0%
Revised n/a

 
No bottom in sight yet.

[top][end]

House Price Index ALLX (Nov)

[top][end]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec)

Survey -40
Actual -55
Prior -38
Revised n/a

 
Very weak.

[top][end]

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Dec)


[top]

Share

2008-12-18 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 13)

Survey 558K
Actual 554K
Prior 573K
Revised 575K

 
Down a bit but 4 week average still moving up.

[top][end]

Continuing Claims (Dec 6)

Survey 4375K
Actual 4384K
Prior 4429K
Revised 4431K

 
Down a touch, but still going parabolic.

[top][end]

Jobless Claims ALLX (Dec 13)

[top][end]

Philadelphia Fed (Dec)

Survey -40.5
Actual -32.9
Prior -39.3
Revised n/a

 
Better than expected, up a touch, but still at very low levels.

[top][end]

Philadelphia Fed TABLE 1 (Dec)

[top][end]

Philadelphia Fed TABLE 2 (Dec)

[top][end]

Leading Indicators (Nov)

Survey -0.4%
Actual -0.4%
Prior -0.8%
Revised -0.9%

 
Still looking soft.

[top][end]

Leading Indicators ALLX (Nov)


[top]

Share

2008-12-16 USER

Posted on by


[Skip to the end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.40%
Prior 0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to move lower.

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Dec 16)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.60%
Prior -0.80%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Dec 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.80%
Prior -0.40%
Revised n/a

 
Continues to move lower.

[top][end]

Redbook Store Sales MoM (Dec 9)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.40%
Prior -1.10%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Dec 9)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index MoM (Nov)

Survey -1.3%
Actual -1.7%
Prior -1.0%
Revised n/a

 

Karim writes:

  • Headline CPI dropped 1.7% M/M in November after 1.0% decline last month (Y/Y now at +1.1%)

  • Core was flat in November after 0.1% decline (Y/Y at 2.0% and 3 month annualized at 0.4%… core is decelerating quickly and inflation certainly not a concern for Fed at this point)

  • OER was up 0.3% M/M, but partly due to a decline in utility prices that increases economic rents

[top][end]

CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (Nov)

Survey 0.1%
Actual 0.0%
Prior -0.1%
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey 1.5%
Actual 1.1%
Prior 3.7%
Revised n/a

 
Way down, as crude oil and gasoline are lower than they were last year.

[top][end]

CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (Nov)

Survey 2.1%
Actual 2.0%
Prior 2.2%
Revised n/a

 
Core drifting lower though owner equivalent rent went up .30% as utility costs fell and rents stayed about the same.

[top][end]

CPI Core Index SA (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 216.849
Prior 216.801
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index NSA (Nov)

Survey 212.699
Actual 212.425
Prior 216.573
Revised n/a

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index TABLE 1 (Nov)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index TABLE 2 (Nov)

[top][end]

Consumer Price Index TABLE 3 (Nov)

[top][end]

Housing Starts (Nov)

Survey 763K
Actual 625K
Prior 791K
Revised 771K

 
Keeps falling as the headlines have the public and financial institutions scared stiff.

Karim writes:

  • Housing Starts dropped to 625k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 771k last month and 1,179k last year (this should put more downward pressure on residential investment in GDP through early 2009)

  • Permits dropped to 616k in November (record low with about 50 years of data!) from 730k last month and 1,111k last year

  • Token “Sliver” lining- less pressure on inventories from new homes

[top][end]

Building Permits (Nov)

Survey 700K
Actual 616K
Prior 708K
Revised 730K

[top][end]


[top]

Share