Category Archives: Daily

2009-02-11 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Feb 6)

Survey n/a
Actual -24.5%
Prior 8.6%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Feb 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 235.90
Prior 261.40
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Feb 6)

Survey n/a
Actual 2722.70
Prior 3906.30
Revised n/a

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Bloomberg Global Confidence (Feb)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.49
Prior 8.72
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance (Dec)

Survey -$35.7B
Actual -$39.9B
Prior -$40.4B
Revised -$41.6B

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Exports MoM (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -6.0%
Prior -6.0%
Revised n/a

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Imports MoM (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -5.5%
Prior -11.9%
Revised n/a

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Exports YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -8.4%
Prior -2.0%
Revised n/a

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Imports YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -14.7%
Prior -10.3%
Revised n/a

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Trade Balance ALLX (Dec)


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2009-02-10 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.80%
Prior -2.50%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.00%
Prior 1.60%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.70%
Prior -2.70%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 10)

Survey n/a
Actual 0.70%
Prior -2.70%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 10)

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Wholesale Inventories MoM (Dec)

Survey -0.7%
Actual -1.4%
Prior -0.6%
Revised -0.9%

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Wholesale Inventories YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.3%
Prior 7.9%
Revised n/a

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 1 (Dec)

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Wholesale Inventories ALLX 2 (Dec)

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IBD TIPP Economic Optimism (Feb)

Survey 44.0
Actual 44.6
Prior 45.4
Revised n/a


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2009-02-06 USER

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Karim writes:

Job losses picking up speed and hours worked continue to plunge.

  • -598k job losses in January
  • Benchmark revision for 2008, -400k
  • Unemployment rate up from 7.2% to 7.6%
  • Hours worked down another 0.7% (biggest driver of personal income)
  • Augmented unemployment rate rises from 13.5% to 13.9% (was 8.7% in December 2007)
  • Diffusion index down to 25.3 from 25.5 (only 2 sectors to add jobs were education, 54k, and government, 6k)

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)

Survey -540K
Actual -598K
Prior -524K
Revised -577K

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Change in Nonfarm Payrolls YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -3500.00
Prior -2589.00
Revised n/a

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Nonfarm Payrolls ALLX (Jan)

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Unemployment Rate (Jan)

Survey 7.5%
Actual 7.6%
Prior 7.2%
Revised n/a

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Unemployment Rate ALLX 2 (Jan)

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Jan)

Survey -145K
Actual -207K
Prior -149K
Revised -162K

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Change in Manufacturing Payrolls YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual -7.7%
Prior -5.9%
Revised n/a

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Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Jan)

Survey 0.2%
Actual 0.3%
Prior 0.3%
Revised 0.4%

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Average Hourly Earnings YoY (Jan)

Survey 3.6%
Actual 3.9%
Prior 3.7%
Revised 4.0%

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 2 (Jan)

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Average Hourly Earnings ALLX 3 (Jan)

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Average Weekly Hours (Jan)

Survey 33.3
Actual 33.3
Prior 33.3
Revised n/a


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2009-02-05 USER

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Nonfarm Productivity QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.6%
Actual 3.2%
Prior 1.3%
Revised 1.5%

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 1 (4Q)

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Nonfarm Productivity TABLE 2 (4Q)

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Unit Labor Costs QoQ (4Q)

Survey 2.9%
Actual 1.8%
Prior 2.8%
Revised 2.6%

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Unit Labor Costs ALLX (4Q)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 31)

Survey 580K
Actual 626K
Prior 588K
Revised 591K

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Continuing Claims (Jan 24)

Survey 4795K
Actual 4788K
Prior 4776K
Revised 4768K

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 31)

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Factory Orders YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -18.7%
Prior -13.8%
Revised n/a

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Factory Orders MoM (Dec)

Survey -3.1%
Actual -3.9%
Prior -4.6%
Revised -6.5%

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Factory Orders TABLE 1 (Dec)

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Factory Orders TABLE 2 (Dec)

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Factory Orders TABLE 3 (Dec)


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2009-02-04 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 8.6%
Prior -38.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 261.40
Prior 294.30
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 30)

Survey n/a
Actual 3906.30
Prior 3373.90
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts YoY (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 222.4%
Prior 274.5%
Revised n/a

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 1 (Jan)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 2 (Jan)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 3 (Jan)

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Challenger Job Cuts TABLE 4 (Jan)

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ADP Employment Change (Jan)

Survey -535K
Actual -522K
Prior -693K
Revised -659K

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ADP ALLX (Jan)

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ISM Non Manufacturing Composite (Jan)

Survey 39.0
Actual 42.9
Prior 40.6
Revised 40.1


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2009-02-03 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Feb 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.50%
Prior -2.40%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Feb 3)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.60%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Feb 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.70%
Prior -2.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Feb 3)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.70%
Prior -2.60%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Feb 3)

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Pending Home Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey 0.0%
Actual 6.3%
Prior -4.0%
Revised -3.7%

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Pending Home Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 6.0%
Prior 9.5%
Revised n/a

 
Chewing through the foreclosures.


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2009-01-30 USER

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GDP QoQ Annualized (4Q A)

Survey -5.5%
Actual -3.8%
Prior -0.5%
Revised n/a

 
Karim writes:

Better than expected at -3.8% due to inventory build.

Here is the GDP math:

Private consumption (-2.5%) + Business Fixed Investment (-3.1%) + Government (+0.4%) + Net Exports (+0.1%) + Chg in Inventories (+1.3%)

  • Real final sales of -5.1% were consistent with estimates.
  • Business sector overestimated domestic demand, thereby accounting for the inventory build (should reverse in Q1).
  • Core PCE deflator slowed from 2.4% to 0.6%.
  • Within investment, both housing (-23.6%) and equipment/software (-27.8%) were very weak.

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GDP YoY Annualized Real (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual -0.2%
Prior -0.7%
Revised n/a

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GDP YoY Annualized Nominal (4Q A)

Survey n/a
Actual 1.7%
Prior 3.3%
Revised n/a

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GDP Price Index (4Q)

Survey 0.4%
Actual -0.1%
Prior 3.9%
Revised n/a

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Core PCE QoQ (4Q)

Survey 1.0%
Actual 0.6%
Prior 2.4%
Revised n/a

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GDP ALLX 1 (4Q)

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GDP ALLX 2 (4Q)

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Personal Consumption (4Q)

Survey -3.5%
Actual -3.5%
Prior -3.8%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index (4Q)

Survey 0.7%
Actual 0.5%
Prior 0.7%
Revised n/a

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Employment Cost Index ALLX (4Q)

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RPX Composite 28dy YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -21.59%
Prior -20.14%
Revised n/a

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RPX Composite 28dy Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 199.39
Prior 206.73
Revised n/a

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Chicago Purchasing Manager (Jan)

Survey 34.9
Actual 33.3
Prior 34.1
Revised 35.1

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NAPM Milwaukee (Jan)

Survey n/a
Actual 33.0
Prior 30.0
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan Confidence (Jan F)

Survey 61.9
Actual 61.2
Prior 61.9
Revised n/a

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U of Michigan TABLE Inflation Expectations (Jan F)


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2009-01-29 USER

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Durable Goods Orders (Dec)

Survey -2.0%
Actual -2.6%
Prior -1.0%
Revised -3.7%

 
Karim writes:

The drumbeat continues:

  • Durable good orders down 2.6% in December

  • Ex-aircraft and defense, down 2.8% (and down 32.5% at an annualized rate in Q4)

  • Consensus for Q4 GDP tomorrow is -5.5%; today’s durables data adds downside risk to that estimate and the claims/confidence data indicate that Q1 may well be as weak as Q4.

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Durable Goods Orders YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -19.7%
Prior -19.1%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Defense MoM (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -4.9%
Prior -3.9%
Revised n/a

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Durables Ex Transportation MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.7%
Actual -3.6%
Prior 1.2%
Revised -1.7%

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Durable Goods ALLX (Dec)

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Initial Jobless Claims (Jan 24)

Survey 575K
Actual 588K
Prior 589K
Revised 585K

 
Karim writes:

  • Initial claims rise 3k to 588k (4wk avg up to 542k from 518k)

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Continuing Claims (Jan 17)

Survey 4620K
Actual 4776K
Prior 4607K
Revised 4617K

 
Karim writes:

  • Continuing claims rise 159k to 4776k, all-time high in the 41yrs of the claims series

  • Despite the decline in energy prices and publicity surrounding stimulus plan, both ABC and Conference Board surveys made new lows in the past week- reflecting that the labor market is now the key driver of sentiment

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Jobless Claims ALLX (Jan 24)

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New Home Sales (Dec)

Survey 397K
Actual 331K
Prior 407K
Revised 388K

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New Home Sales Total for Sale (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 357.00
Prior 397.00
Revised n/a

 
This continues to fall rapidly as new construction rates falls way below sales.

In fact, the lack of new home inventory is probably restricting sales.

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New Home Sales MoM (Dec)

Survey -2.5%
Actual -14.7%
Prior -2.9%
Revised -4.4%

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New Home Sales YoY (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual -44.8%
Prior -38.3%
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales Median Price (Dec)

Survey n/a
Actual 206.50
Prior 219.70
Revised n/a

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New Home Sales TABLE 1 (Dec)

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New Home Sales TABLE 2 (Dec)


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2009-01-28 USER

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MBA Mortgage Applications (Jan 23)

Survey n/a
Actual -38.8%
Prior -9.8%
Revised n/a

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MBA Purchasing Applications (Jan 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 294.30
Prior 303.10
Revised n/a

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MBA Refinancing Applications (Jan 23)

Survey n/a
Actual 3373.90
Prior 6491.90
Revised n/a


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2009-01-27 USER

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ICSC UBS Store Sales YoY (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.40%
Prior -1.80%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Store Sales WoW (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -1.80%
Prior 1.10%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales Weekly YoY (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.30%
Prior -2.30%
Revised n/a

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Redbook Store Sales MoM (Jan 27)

Survey n/a
Actual -2.60%
Prior -2.50%
Revised n/a

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ICSC UBS Redbook Comparison TABLE (Jan 27)

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S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 154.59
Prior 158.16
Revised 158.12

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S&P CS Composite 20 YoY (Nov)

Survey -18.40%
Actual -18.18%
Prior -18.04%
Revised -18.06%

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual 150.04
Prior 155.45
Revised n/a

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S&P Case Shiller US Home Price Index YoY (Nov)

Survey n/a
Actual -16.55%
Prior -15.40%
Revised n/a

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Consumer Confidence (Jan)

Survey 39.0
Actual 37.7
Prior 38.0
Revised 38.6

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 1 (Jan)

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Consumer Confidence ALLX 2 (Jan)

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)

Survey -50
Actual -49
Prior -55
Revised n/a

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Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index ALLX (Jan)


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